Cincinnati Reds: Five bold predictions for the 2020 season

1. Kyle Farmer starts at least one game playing every infield position for the Reds.

The Cincinnati Reds infield is stacked. Each player has had at least one season in which they hit 20-plus home runs, including Freddy Galvis who hit a career-high 23 dingers in 2019. Kyle Farmer, Cincinnati’s do-everything Swiss Army knife, saw time at every infield position last season, however, he never started at shortstop. This season, I think he will.

Given how the schedule sets up, the Reds play 17 straight days before receiving an off day. David Bell’s not going to run out 36-year-old Joey Votto for 17 straight games as the team’s starting first baseman. Will he play in all 17 games? Sure, but he might be peppered in as the team’s DH from time to time. Farmer is definitely an option to start at first base.

The backup shortstop position may be up for grabs. Will Alex Blandino make the 30-man roster? There’s a great possibility, but it’s hard to envision Blandino surviving thee cut to 28 players and you’d have to squint pretty hard to see him on the 26-man roster after four weeks of play. Look for Farmer to see more than the one inning of work he received at shortstop in 2019.

Third base is covered by Eugenio Suárez, who’s coming off shoulder surgery. Though he’s supposedly 100%, Bell may not risk his best player having a setback during the early part of the 2020 season. Farmer or Mike Moustakas would fir nicely at the hot corner if Geno needs a day off.

Moustakas is the last remaining infielder that Farmer would have to supplant in order to make this prediction come true. Again, with 17 straight games to begin the 2020 season, especially if we see at southpaw on the mound, it’s easy to see Bell going with the right-handed hitting Kyle Farmer over Moose.

2. Jesse Winker leads the Reds in home runs and RBIs during the 2020 season.

Okay, now we’re getting bold, right? I mean, c’mon, Jesse Winker? How in the world is going to lead the Reds in home runs? Winker’s problem in the past has not been at the dish. In fact, he’s one of Cincinnati’s best young hitters who has a great eye at the plate. His problem has been staying healthy. A 60-game season and universal DH will help Winker more than anyone.

Winker played in a career-high 113 games in 2019 and hit a career-high 16 home runs. The 26-year-old’s production halted in the last two months of 2019, when a season-ending injury landed Winker on the injured list. The year prior, Winker only played in 89 games.

Winker was drafted out of high school with the 49th pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Winker, who’s career-OPS is .845. Winker is better than anyone on this year’s Reds team, sans Joey Votto, at getting on base.

The additions to the Reds roster will help protect Winker in the lineup. He will not be called upon to the the team’s leadoff hitter. That job is likely to be split between Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama. Winker is likely to be nestled in the heart of the Reds lineup between the likes of Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez and Senzel (when he’s not leading off).

Winker, along with Moustakas and Castellanos, will likely have the most opportunities to drive in runs. With Votto and Akiyama atop the Cincinnati batting order, there will be runners on base ahead of the big hitters. Look for Winker to finally break out and have his best season to date.

3. Tyler Mahle starts more games for the Reds than Wade Miley.

In case you can’t tell, I’m very bullish on Tyler Mahle. Every time I watch this youngster pitch, he seems to have that “it” factor. However, sometimes, he cannot get out of his own way. We saw Mahle make tremendous strides in 2019 and I expect more of the same from the California native in 2020.

Wade Miley was a nice add for the Reds this past offseason, but the move does not come without questions. While Mahle’s ERA (5.93) over his final six starts in 2019 was not great, he at least bested Miley’s 12.60 ERA. To Miley’s credit, the left-handed admitted that her was inadvertently tipping his pitches over his final few starts. He had a 3.13 ERA in his first 26 starts last season.

Miley and Mahle seem somewhat interchangeable to me during this shortened MLB season. I could easily see David Bell playing the matchups and resting Miley when the opponent’s right-handed batters are much more imposing than their left-handed sluggers. Miley’s BAbip against lefties was .217, while right-handers owned a .309 BAbip against him.

Mahle’s record last season (3-12) was not reflective of his performance. During 10 of Mahle’s 25 starts, the offense provided two runs or fewer. Sonny Gray was in a similar boat, but also saw 12 different occasions when the Reds bats provided six or more runs. That happened for Mahle only six times last year.

Tyler Mahle may have the best control of any starting pitcher in the Reds rotation. With Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani entering free agency this winter, it’s a good bet that Mahle will supplant one of them in the 2021 starting rotation. He could supplant Miley this season.

4. Tyler Stephenson will NOT make his Reds debut this season.

This prediction has a chance to blow up in my face rather quickly. The Reds currently have Curt Casali and Tucker Barnhart plugged in as the team’s catching tandem, and Kyle Farmer can don the tools of ignorance as well. Tyler Stephenson made a great impression during the Arizona Fall League and continued to play well during spring training in Goodyear. I just can’t see him making the bigs just yet.

As I write this, I’m keenly aware that if Barnhart or Casali go down with injury, or test positive for COVID-19, the chances of Stephenson being promoted to the majors increases exponentially. That said, Cincinnati also seems to have a lot of faith in non-roster invitee Francisco Peña.

Peña is on stranger to the big leagues. The 30-year-old backstop has played five seasons at the major-league level, playing for the Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants and, most recently, the St. Louis Cardinals. While Peña is not necessarily an offensive threat, the catcher position is one where you can sacrifice defense for offense.

Make no mistake, if this were a 162-game season, I’d expect Tyler Stephenson to be on the team’s active roster during September, if not before. However, a shortened-season is not one that screams development, which Stephenson needs more of.

The Reds top catching prospect has not played above Double-A, and though he has potential with both his glove and his bat, the Reds depth at the position allows them to continue to bring Stephenson along slowly. However, one injury could offer both Stephenson or José García the chance to shine.

5. The Reds will win the NL Central by six games.

Okay, I think most fans would pick Cincinnati to win the NL Central. You wouldn’t be called a fan if you thought otherwise, right? After all, the Reds have their best grouping of talented players since the 2012 season. But six games? That’s an awful wide margin during a 60-game season. The St. Louis Cardinals only bested the Milwaukee Brewers by two games last season.

That’s the confidence I have in this year’s team. Dick Williams and Nick Krall have been assembling this team since last July, and you could argue even earlier. The trade for Trevor Bauer signaled one thing; the Cincinnati Reds were going all-in during the 2020 season.

This offseason confirmed as much with the additions of Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley. The Reds could’ve rested on their laurels, been happy with the development of the starting pitching and hoped for the hitting to catch up. Nope, the Reds front office put its money where its mouth is and signed some big-name free agents last winter.

The addition of Nick Castellanos was a shocking signing to me. After having divvied out $100M to three free agents, Bob Castellini opened up his wallet and brought a difference-maker to the Queen City. Castellanos has the chance to be Cincinnati’s second-best player behind Eugenio Suárez.

The starting pitching is the team’s strength, but now the Reds have an offense to match any team in the NL Central. While the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals sat idle, the Cincinnati Reds hit the gas. In my opinion, Cincinnati’s only true competition in the NL Central are the Milwaukee Brewers.

While fans are unlikely to grab a seat at Great American Ball Park this season, I’m sure the ratings for Fox Sports Ohio will be through the roof as Reds Country tunes in on a nightly basis to cheer on their Redlegs. I think Cincinnati will dominate the competition this season and bring home the NL Central Division title.