Cincinnati Reds: Predicting 30-man roster with summer camp underway

Who will make the Reds 2020 Opening Day roster?

We’re inching closer to the 2020 season, so it feels fitting to offer our second crack at predicting the Cincinnati Reds roster. Each team’s roster will expand to 30 players to start the season, but will shrink to 28 and then eventually 26. About a week ago, we predicted which 30 players would make the cut. With a little more information, how much will those predictions change?

Not much has changed since our last prediction, but the picture is becoming a bit clearer. To this point, Cincinnati has yet to place any player on the injured list, which is a good sign. That said, the Reds have enough depth in both their starting lineup and starting rotation to absorb the loss of a player or two. The bullpen, however, is a bit thin.

After spending $166M this past offseason, we have a pretty good idea of the top-level players who’ll grace the field at Great American Ball Park on July 24th. However, looking at the bench and bullpen, the Reds coaching staff might have to intensify their scrutiny when it comes to who’ll make the cut.

A few different factors are at work in this shortened 2020 season. What will team’s value in terms of their bench? Will some of the new rules (three-batter minimum, extra innings begin with a runner on second base, etc.) affect which players get cut? Will we see any rookies among on the Opening Day roster? Let’s take a look at our roster projections version 2.0.

Reds starting lineup (9)

Joey Votto (1B), Mike Moustakas (2B), Freddy Galvis (SS), Eugenio Suárez (3B), Tucker Barnhart (C), Nick Castellanos (RF), Nick Senzel (CF), Shogo Akiyama (LF), Jesse Winker (DH)

Don’t look for any changes here, because there are none. Barring injury, the Reds starting lineup is virtually set and ready to go. The only intrigue is who will be cast in the role of designated hitter when the Cincinnati Reds take the field against the Detroit Tigers on Friday, July 24th. For now, we’ll stick with Jesse Winker.

Though Winker is not a bad fielder, his -4 defensive runs saved according to FanGraphs, suggest that there may be better options on the roster. Nick Castellanos recently commented on his decision to stay in the National League, as his preference is not to exclusively be used as Cincinnati’s DH. While that decision rests with David Bell, I suspect the Reds skipper will be amenable to the request.

That’s not to say that we won’t see Castellanos in that role on occasion. In an effort to get more right-handed bats in the lineup, circumstances could dictate that Castellanos be the team’s designated hitter while Nick Senzel, Phillip Ervin and Aristides Aquino round out the Cincinnati outfield. Bell has plenty of options.

Tucker Barnhart will likely rotate with Curt Casali based on matchups. When a right-hander takes the hill, expect to see Barnhart in the lineup. If a southpaw toes the rubber, we’re likely to see Casali don the tools of ignorance. Don’t look for the starting lineup to change, but thee batting order will be of interest.

Reds role players (6)

Phillip Ervin (OF), Kyle Farmer (IF), Josh VanMeter (IF), Mark Payton (OF), Curt Casali (C), Travis Jankowski (OF)

This is where the battle for the final few roster spots begins to take shape. Players like Curt Casali, Phillip Ervin and Kyle Farmer are locks to make the team. But, Mark Payton, Josh VanMeter and Travis Jankowski are definitely on the bubble. VanMeter’s showing last season and versatility gives the left-handed slugger the edge.

After hearing David Bell’s praise for Farmer’s ability to field the shortstop position, keeping Alex Blandino on the Opening Day roster is no longer necessary. Blandino is a sound backup who hit well during spring training, but some of the other players in camp have some specialized skills that Blandino lacks.

Jankowski replaces Blandino in our latest projection because he possesses one thing Blandino does not; elite speed. Jankowski is a burner. He’s not Billy Hamilton-fast, but he’s fast enough. With the newly instituted “runner on second base” rule that will accompany the 2020 season, having a player who’s wheels can get him to home plate quickly will be very advantageous.

I would expect Ervin, Farmer, Casali and even VanMeter to receive some sort of regular playing time this season. Ervin can sub in for Jesse Winker when a lefty is on the mound and Casali is likely to do the same for Tucker Barnhart. VanMeter and Farmer offer enough versatility to give players like Joey Votto, Eugenio Suárez and Mike Moustakas a day off.

Reds relief corps (10)

Pedro Strop (RHP), Lucas Sims (RHP), Michael Lorenzen (RHP), Cody Reed (LHP), Raisel Iglesias (RHP), Nate Jones (RHP), Tyler Mahle (RHP), Robert Stephenson (RHP), Sal Romano (RHP) and Amir Garrett (LHP)

The Cincinnati Reds are likely to carry 10 relievers into the 2020 season. Wear and tear on the starting rotation will be a key factor to monitor during the upcoming season. Thankfully for Cincinnati, both Lucas Sims and Tyler Mahle have a history of starting and can offer the rotation a break in the early-going.

The backend of the Reds bullpen is a lock. Pedro Strop, Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson all have a secure spot on the 2020 roster. Lorenzen has voiced his desire to play all 60 games, Iglesias is looking for a bounce-back season after a horrendous showing in 2019, and Garrett is ready to build off an impressive 2019 campaign.

If he’s healthy, you can pencil in Nate Jones among those likely to have a spot in the Reds bullpen as well. The former Chicago White Sox reliever has struggled to stay healthy in the past, but when he’s on, he doesn’t make at-bats easy on the hitters. So far, the right-hander has remained healthy since signing with Cincinnati as a non-roster invitee.

Speaking of non-roster invitees, we added Sal Romano to this projection and removed Tyler Thornburg. It’s obvious that the Reds see something special in Romano, otherwise he wouldn’t have been invited to camp. Cody Reed is another player who does not have a stranglehold on a spot yet, but he’s out of options and a good bet to make the Opening Day roster.