Cincinnati Reds: Buy or sell for the 2020 regular season

Buy or Sell: Trevor Bauer emerges as the Reds ace

Some people may find this to be a silly question, as the Cincinnati Reds likely Opening Day starter will be Luis Castillo. So, if Castillo is the Opening Day starter, doesn’t that mean that he’s the ace of the staff? Not so fast. While La Piedra certainly has ace-level stuff, Trevor Bauer might have the best pitching repertoire on the team.

Castillo’s changeup is devastating. An All-Star in 2019, Castillo rode his changeup 32.5% of the time according to FanGraphs. Castillo’s changeup has unbelievable action and the difference in velocity is about 10-MPH slower than his fastball.

Bauer, however, is no slouch when it comes to the variety of pitches he throws. The right-hander relies on his fastball less than 50% of the time according to FanGraphs. Bauer mixes in a changeup, cutter, curveball and a slider. The former Cleveland Indians hurler also probably has three other pitches that he’ll go to from time to time.

Bauer is in a contract-year and will become a free agent at the end of the 2020 season. An All-Star type season may cement Bauer as one of the best free agents available next winter, but an average season may really hurt his stock following a mediocre performance after the deadline deal that brought him to the Queen City.

While I expect Trevor Bauer to rebound from the struggles he endured after the trade to Cincinnati, given the number of capable pitchers on the Reds staff, I find it hard to label Bauer as the team’s ace. Castillo, and even Sonny Gray, will likely be battling Bauer for that title all season.

Verdict: Sell