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Cincinnati Reds: Buy or sell for the 2020 regular season
The 2020 Major League Baseball season is upon us. Let’s buy or sell some of the top storylines for the Cincinnati Reds before the season kicks off.
The Cincinnati Reds will enter the 2020 season with high expectations. After seeing an improvement from 2018 to 2019, the front office added some key pieces via free agency and the lack of a frontrunner in the NL Central gives hope for a return to the postseason. Let’s look at some of the pressing questions entering the upcoming season.
Opening Day is just a couple weeks away and fans throughout Reds Country are excited. Their team enters the season with a renewed sense of purpose and the offseason spending of $165M has the fanbase encouraged. The 2020 version of the Cincinnati Reds has a real chance to make some noise during the upcoming season.
However, with every new season comes several questions. Will the team be good enough? Did thee front office do enough to improve the team? Will certain players play up to level of expectations or fall well-short of their goals? These are all great questions and ones that won’t be answered until the season kicks off on March 26th at Great American Ball Park.
As we embark on the 2020 season, certain storylines have already emerged. Rather than look at potential roster battles as camp comes to a close, we’re going to take a look at some of the big picture questions that will undoubtedly shape the Cincinnati Reds upcoming season. Let’s have some fun and play a game or buy or sell.
Buy or Sell: Joey Votto bounces back in 2020
This is the question that’s on every Reds fan’s mind as we enter the 2020 season. Will Joey Votto have that bounce-back season that we all hope he does? In all honesty, it’s a very loaded question and one that needs a bit of unpacking. Let’s see if we can do that.
Will Joey Votto return to the player we saw in 2017 that should have won the NL MVP for a second time? I doubt it. In 2017, Votto hit .320/.454/.578 with 36 home runs and 100 RBIs. Votto led the league in walks, on-base percentage and OPS that season. I think it’s unreasonable to expect Votto to return to that level.
However, I don’t think it’s illogical to expect Votto to bounce back from the performances we’ve seen the past two seasons. In 2018 and 2019 combined, Votto’s hit .272/.387/.415 with 27 homers and 117 RBIs. For almost any major league player, those numbers would be very good, but it’s well below what a player making $25M per year should be producing.
Now, I’m not here to debate Votto’s salary. To me, that’s a dead issue. The Reds and Votto agreed to the contract extension and he’s not going to be traded, so the contract situation is what it is. But, if the Reds are going to reach the heights that he, the coaching staff and the front office hope to reach, Votto has to be better than he’s been the past two seasons.
So, will Joey Votto bounce back in 2020? If you’re expecting the 2017 version of Votto, the answer is no. If you’re expecting a better version than we’ve seen over the past two seasons, then the answer is yes. So, buy or sell Votto having a bounce-back season? I’ll buy, with the appropriate level of expectation.
Verdict: Buy
Buy or Sell: Trevor Bauer emerges as the Reds ace
Some people may find this to be a silly question, as the Cincinnati Reds likely Opening Day starter will be Luis Castillo. So, if Castillo is the Opening Day starter, doesn’t that mean that he’s the ace of the staff? Not so fast. While La Piedra certainly has ace-level stuff, Trevor Bauer might have the best pitching repertoire on the team.
Castillo’s changeup is devastating. An All-Star in 2019, Castillo rode his changeup 32.5% of the time according to FanGraphs. Castillo’s changeup has unbelievable action and the difference in velocity is about 10-MPH slower than his fastball.
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Bauer, however, is no slouch when it comes to the variety of pitches he throws. The right-hander relies on his fastball less than 50% of the time according to FanGraphs. Bauer mixes in a changeup, cutter, curveball and a slider. The former Cleveland Indians hurler also probably has three other pitches that he’ll go to from time to time.
Bauer is in a contract-year and will become a free agent at the end of the 2020 season. An All-Star type season may cement Bauer as one of the best free agents available next winter, but an average season may really hurt his stock following a mediocre performance after the deadline deal that brought him to the Queen City.
While I expect Trevor Bauer to rebound from the struggles he endured after the trade to Cincinnati, given the number of capable pitchers on the Reds staff, I find it hard to label Bauer as the team’s ace. Castillo, and even Sonny Gray, will likely be battling Bauer for that title all season.
Verdict: Sell
Buy or Sell: Nick Senzel excels as the Reds centerfielder
This is an intriguing question. All season we’ve seen Nick Senzel‘s name bounced about in trade rumors. However, here we are just weeks before the start of the 2020 season, and all indications are that Senzel will be in a Cincinnati Reds uniform on Opening Day provided he’s fully recovered from shoulder surgery.
The reason we’ve heard so much talk surrounding Senzel this offseason was due, in part, to the Cincinnati Reds acquisition of Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama. Akiyama is a versatile outfielder, but has spent the majority of his career overseas playing center field.
Akiyama has played 10 games this spring, hitting .321/.367/.357. Nine of those 10 starts have come in center field, with only one of Akiyama’s starts coming in left field. To be fair, while Akiyama has held down the center field job, both Senzel and Travis Jankowski have missed virtually every Cactus League game due to injury.
Senzel is much too talented to ride the bench all season, but the Reds committed a lot of money to Akiyama. The key piece of how the Reds outfield unfolds this season may be Jesse Winker. Like Senzel, Winker finished the 2019 season on the injured list. The Reds left fielder has had a productive spring, hitting .368/.458/.421.
The one thing I’m sticking to is that Senzel’s presence in the Reds infield will be on a emergency basis only. I really think David Bell and the Cincinnati front office want to see the 24-year-old succeed in the outfield. For now, I’m going to hold off on labeling Senzel as the starting centerfielder for the Reds, but by season’s end, I expect him to find an every day spot in outfield.
Verdict: Buy
Buy or Sell: The Reds trade for Francisco Lindor at the deadline
Well, this is sure to be a topic of conversation throughout the season. According to The Athletic, he Cleveland Indians and their superstar shortstop have ceased contract talks and Francisco Lindor will enter the 2020 season with only two years of team control remaining. Lindor will be a free agent following the 2021 season.
So why does this matter to the Cincinnati Reds? In case you haven’t been paying attention, there were rumors throughout the offseason of a potential trade between the Reds and Indians for the four-time All-Star. Those rumors eventually became clearer and it turned out that the Reds were more interested in a possible three-team trade that would’ve netted them Corey Seager.
Well, the Los Angeles Dodgers turned their attention elsewhere and now have former AL MVP Mookie Betts roaming the outfield. With Betts’ bat in the lineup, it’s unlikely we see LA engage in talks with the Tribe. With that being the case, should Cincinnati pick up the phone before the trade deadline and swing a deal of Lindor?
I highly doubt that’ll happen. Would I like to see Lindor move from Northeast Ohio to Cincinnati? Who wouldn’t? My concern with a trade for Lindor is two-fold; what would cost the Reds in terms of prospects and is that sacrifice worth it for one-plus year of Francisco Lindor?
Both of those are fair questions, and ones that the Reds front office would have to answer. In the end, I think Freddy Galvis will be a solid shortstop for Cincinnati in 2020 and Jose Garcia’s bright future will give the front office cause to pause on searching out an upgrade for the position. I think a trade for Lindor is highly unlikely and it’s time for fans to move past the idea.
Verdict: Sell
Buy or Sell: The Reds win the NL Central pennant
At the end of the day, this is question that all of Reds Country wants an answer to. Do the Cincinnati Reds have what it takes to win the National League Central and make the playoffs for the first time since 2013? You’ve got to like their chances, right?
Last year, the Reds rotation was the strength of the team. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer look to be a formidable trio at the top of the rotation. The two other starters aren’t too shabby either. I expect a big season from Anthony DeSclafani. Wade Miley is a nice addition and Tyler Mahle is waiting in the wings in the event one of the starters struggle.
A Reds offense that ranked 12th in runs scored last season got a tremendous boost this winter. Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama were already expected to elevate Cincinnati’s mediocre offense. Add to that the surprising acquisition of slugger Nick Castellanos, and the Reds have the makings of a Top 5 offense in the National League.
The bullpen has more than enough arms to be, at the very least, league-average. Adding Pedro Strop gives Cincinnati another reliable reliever that David Bell can turn to late in games. Add to all the major league talent, the likes of Aristides Aquino, José De León and Tyler Stephenson, and the Reds have depth in the minor leagues as well.
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This Reds team is prime for a run at the NL Central title. One could make the argument that the other four teams in the division did nothing to improve themselves heading into the 2020 season. In fact, I dare say that every team in the NL Central, except the Reds, got worse between the end of 2019 and Opening Day of the 2020 season.