Cincinnati Reds: Three players who will outperform their 2020 projections

3. Lucas Sims, Right-handed pitcher

2020 Projections: 5.09 ERA, 46.0 IP, 50 Ks, 22 BBs

I struggled to find a hurler who’s projections seemed well-below what Reds Country expects from Cincinnati’s pitching staff in 2020. The expectations are extremely high and ESPN reflected that in their projections. However, there was one pitcher who’s predicted stats fell far-below what I’m expecting from him in 2020.

Lucas Sims, who made a step forward during 24 games last season, is projected to see a dip in strikeouts from 57 (2019) to 50 (2020) despite an increase in innings pitched. Sims is also projected to see an increase in ERA from 4.60 (2019) to 5.09 (2020).

Last season saw Lucas Sims, a former first-round pick, find a comfortable home in the Cincinnati bullpen. Though Sims did start four games in 2019, he’s unlikely to see the mound to begin a game in 2020, as the Cincinnati’s rotation is all but set and Tyler Mahle would be the likely replacement should an injury befall one of the Reds starters.

According to FanGraphs, Sims set career-highs in strikeout-rate (32.2%) and K/9 (11.93) in 2019. Sims walks were a bit concerning last season, but if he can get the free passes down, I expect the right-hander to find a regular role in the bullpen. With so much talent in the backend of the Reds bullpen, Sims is the perfect candidate to take over should one of the starters run into trouble early.

Lucas Sims is out of minor-league options. Though his spot on the team is far from a guarantee, I think it’s highly-likely that Sims makes the Opening Day roster. If he does, the Georgia native could carve out a nice role as the long reliever on next year’s team.