Cincinnati Reds: Three players who will outperform their 2020 projections

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CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 21: Lucas Sims #39 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Every sports-related website has predictions of how well players will perform. Which three Cincinnati Reds players will outperform their projections?

There are some pretty heavy expectations heaped onto the shoulders of the Cincinnati Reds. A lot of pundits, experts and fans expect the Redlegs to, at the very least, contend for the NL Central Division title. Many sports-related websites project how well certain players will perform during the upcoming season. Which three Reds will outperform those projections?

Sonny Gray, Robert Stephenson and José Iglesias certainly outperformed expectations last season. Gray, after being traded from the New York Yankees, went to the All-Star Game, while Stephenson found a home in the Reds bullpen and Iglesias put up terrific numbers at the dish while also wowing fans with dazzling defense in the field.

Several factors go into projecting how good or bad a player will perform. How well did said player perform last year? Are they trending up or trending down? Is a new addition likely to steal away playing time? These and other questions have a profound impact on the projections for each major league player.

Every year, ESPN.com projects how well they think every major league player will perform. Using that website as a guide, we’ve selected three players on the Reds roster who are most likely to outperform expectations and help Cincinnati in its pursuit of their first division crown since 2012.

DENVER, CO – JULY 13: Nick Senzel #15 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

1. Nick Senzel, Centerfielder

2020 Projections: .258/.320/.438, 18 HRs, 56 RBIs

I’m expecting big things from Nick Senzel in 2020. In fact, if the Reds are hoping to make some noise in the NL Central, Senzel will be key to any type of postseason run Cincinnati hopes to put together. Last year’s rookie hit .256/.315/.427 with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs.

According to ESPN, Senzel is projected to improve on the numbers from his rookie season. Good, I expect him to do the same thing. However, I don’t expect Senzel to improve upon his numbers from 2019, I expect him to shatter all expectations and blow past the projected .258 batting average and .320 on-base percentage.

Related Story. Senzel is the best option in CF

Throughout his collegiate and professional career, Senzel hit above .300 every single season that he ever played baseball. In three years at Tennessee, Senzel slashed .332/.426/.508 and in four minor league seasons, Senzel slashed .312/.388/.508. That is the type of production I expect fans to see from Senzel in 2020.

Some folks will have concerns about the 504 at-bats that Senzel is expected to have, but I think that’s right about on target for what he should receive. Yes, Shogo Akiyama will start some games in center field, but, if healthy, I expect Nick Senzel to the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day starter on March 26th.

The Reds did not draft Senzel No. 2 overall in 2016 to ride the pine, no did they draft him to put up the numbers that he displayed last season. I’m looking at 2020 as a year of redemption for Senzel. Expect Senzel to put the injuries and trade rumors behind him and become one of the best players in Cincinnati’s lineup.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 12: Freddy Galvis #3 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

2. Freddy Galvis, Shortstop

2020 Projections: .244/.290/.405, 17 HRs, 56 RBIs

While Freddy Galvis has not been the subject of trade talks all season as Nick Senzel has, the switch-hitter has been chastised as being the front office’s choice for the Opening Day shortstop. Names like Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager have been bandied about the offseason, but Galvis remains entrenched as the Reds choice to start the season at shortstop.

This is interesting to me, as ESPN has projected Galvis’ 2020 season to be worse than his 2019 campaign in which he set career-highs in home runs and RBIs. Galvis was a late-season addition who’s team-option was picked up over the winter. Reds fans didn’t get to see much from Galvis last season, as he played just 32 games before landing on the IL to end his 2019 season.

Galvis hit 23 home runs last season and is projected to hit 17 in 2020. That’s a pretty fair estimate, but with half his games now in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park, there’s every reason to believe that Galvis’ career-high in homers (23) could be in jeopardy.

I honestly think the projection of just 56 RBIs is a bit low as well. Galvis is likely to be sitting at least sixth in a lineup that features Eugenio Suárez, Nick Castellanos Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas. Those guys are going to get on base and Galvis will have a lot of opportunities to bring them home.

Defensively, Freddy Galvis will be at least as good as José Iglesias was for the Reds in 2019. Unfortunately, Cincinnati fans didn’t get to see just how good of a defender Galvis really is. That, plus the lack of depth at shortstop, will keep Galvis on the field. If Galvis can get his on-base percentage above .300, he’ll be a dangerous cog in the Reds lineup.

PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 28: Lucas Sims #39 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

3. Lucas Sims, Right-handed pitcher

2020 Projections: 5.09 ERA, 46.0 IP, 50 Ks, 22 BBs

I struggled to find a hurler who’s projections seemed well-below what Reds Country expects from Cincinnati’s pitching staff in 2020. The expectations are extremely high and ESPN reflected that in their projections. However, there was one pitcher who’s predicted stats fell far-below what I’m expecting from him in 2020.

Lucas Sims, who made a step forward during 24 games last season, is projected to see a dip in strikeouts from 57 (2019) to 50 (2020) despite an increase in innings pitched. Sims is also projected to see an increase in ERA from 4.60 (2019) to 5.09 (2020).

Last season saw Lucas Sims, a former first-round pick, find a comfortable home in the Cincinnati bullpen. Though Sims did start four games in 2019, he’s unlikely to see the mound to begin a game in 2020, as the Cincinnati’s rotation is all but set and Tyler Mahle would be the likely replacement should an injury befall one of the Reds starters.

According to FanGraphs, Sims set career-highs in strikeout-rate (32.2%) and K/9 (11.93) in 2019. Sims walks were a bit concerning last season, but if he can get the free passes down, I expect the right-hander to find a regular role in the bullpen. With so much talent in the backend of the Reds bullpen, Sims is the perfect candidate to take over should one of the starters run into trouble early.

Next. Predicting the Reds roster 3 weeks before Opening Day

Lucas Sims is out of minor-league options. Though his spot on the team is far from a guarantee, I think it’s highly-likely that Sims makes the Opening Day roster. If he does, the Georgia native could carve out a nice role as the long reliever on next year’s team.

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