Cincinnati Reds: Top three candidates to bat leadoff in 2020

1. Shogo Akiyama, Outfielder

The best bet to bat leadoff for the Reds on Opening Day is Shogo Akiyama. Cincinnati signed their first Japanese-born player this offseason and Akiyama’s three-year/$21M deal guarantees he’s going to see the field early and often this season. While Akiyama’s permanent place defensively may not yet be defined, he’s likely to find his spot atop the Reds batting order.

What can we expect from Shogo Akiyama in 2020? Who knows? Scott Boyken, one of the contributors for Blog Red Machine, suggested that some of the projections for the 31-year-old outfielder might be a bit lofty. ESPN and FanGraphs both project Akiyama to hit over .260 with an on-base percentage above .330.

If those projections hold true, then we’re likely to see a lot of Akiyama in the leadoff role next season. However, sometimes the transition from the Japanese leagues to Major League Baseball is not easy. Boyken cited the rookie campaign of another Japanese outfielder, Nori Aoki, who put together a .288/.355/.433 slash line in 2012.

One look at those stats, and Reds Country is about to get very excited. However, while those numbers are solid, both his batting average and on-base percentage both dropped over 40 points from Aoki’s time in Japan.

Akiyama has hit over .300 in four of the past five seasons while playing for the Seibu Lions of the Nippon Professional Baseball league. Akiyama’s on-base percentage hovered at or above .400 during those five seasons as well. If Akiyama produces at that level, there’s little doubt that he’ll be the Reds leadoff hitter in 2020.