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Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the starting rotation for Triple-A Louisville Bats

By Drew Koch

CINCINNATI,OH - AUGUST 27: Buddy Bat of the Louisville Bats connects with a pitch during the annual Mascot Tee Ball game prior to the game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals on August 27, 2011 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds defeated the Nationals 6-3. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI,OH - AUGUST 27: Buddy Bat of the Louisville Bats connects with a pitch during the annual Mascot Tee Ball game prior to the game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals on August 27, 2011 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds defeated the Nationals 6-3. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images) /
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GOODYEAR, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 19: Tony Santillan #74 poses during Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

2. Tony Santillan, Right-handed pitcher

Tony Santillan was expected to make some noise at the Triple-A level last season, but the big right-hander never put together a consistent enough performance to warrant a promotion to Louisville. A solid spring in Goodyear could find one of the Reds top young prospects with a chance to crack the starting rotation with the Louisville Bats.

The Reds took Santillan in the second round of the 2015 MLB Draft out Seguin High School in Texas. Santillan’s fastball is his best pitch, and easily touches the upper-90s. After having success at Double-A Pensacola in 2018, the numbers at Double-A Chattanooga were not that good.

Santillan tore up the Florida State League in 2018, putting together a 4-3 record in 11 starts with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Last year, Santillan’s performance yielded much different results. The power-throwing right-hander went 2-8 in 21 starts with a 4.84 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. Most concerning, however, was walk-rate that jumped from 6.0% (2018)to 11.6% (2019).

The pure stuff is there for Tony Santillan, but he has to harness some consistency and control. Santillan’s strikeout-rate dropped from 22.8% in 2018 to 19.8% last season for the Chattanooga Lookouts.

Where Santillan did find success in 2019 was limiting home runs. Santillan allowed eight balls to leave the yard in just 62.1 innings or work in 2018, but kept that number at eight in 2019 as well despite throwing an additional 40 innings. Keeping the ball in the park will be crucial for Santillan’s development this coming season, as will avoiding the free pass.

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