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Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the starting rotation for Triple-A Louisville Bats

By Drew Koch

CINCINNATI,OH - AUGUST 27: Buddy Bat of the Louisville Bats connects with a pitch during the annual Mascot Tee Ball game prior to the game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals on August 27, 2011 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds defeated the Nationals 6-3. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI,OH - AUGUST 27: Buddy Bat of the Louisville Bats connects with a pitch during the annual Mascot Tee Ball game prior to the game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals on August 27, 2011 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds defeated the Nationals 6-3. (Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images) /
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Cincinnati Reds
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 29: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

1. Tyler Mahle, Right-handed pitcher

Barring an injury to one of the Cincinnati Reds presumptive starters, it’s highly likely that Tyler Mahle begins the 2020 season at Triple-A Louisville. That was, in fact, the plan last year for Mahle, but an injury to Alex Wood forced the right-hander into action and he started 25 games for the Reds in 2019.

A lot of fans will point to Mahle’s 3-12 record. Granted, 12 losses is a big number, but if you look beyond the traditional statistics, you see the makings of a solid starting pitcher who improved from 2018 to 2019.

Tyler Mahle’s ERA  in 2018 was 4.98, which was a little better than the 5.14 ERA he put up last season. However, if you look at Mahle’s FIP, which, according to FanGraphs, measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing, 2019 was his better season.

Mahle’s FIP in 2019 was 4.66, 48 points better than his ERA. In 2018, Mahle’s FIP was 5.25, which is 27 points worse than his ERA. Essentially, FIP eliminates defense and chance, giving you a more complete perspective of how the pitcher performed against the hitter.

Furthermore, according to FanGraphs, Mahle saw his walk-rate decrease from 10.5% in 2018 to 6.1% in 2019. Also, Mahle saw a slight uptick in strikeout-rate. Where the Reds need to see an improvement from Mahle is in the home run category. Mahle surrendered 25 big flies last season. He’ll have some time with Triple-A Louisville to hopefully get that under control.

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