Cincinnati Reds: Predicting the starting rotation for Triple-A Louisville Bats

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KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 9: Louisville Slugger bat Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

For all intents and purposes, the 2020 Cincinnati Reds starting rotation is set. But what might the Triple-A rotation look like for the Louisville Bats?

The 2020 Cincinnati Reds starting rotation, barring injury, is all but set. The addition of Wade Miley gives David Bell a left-hander that he can roll out every fifth day. It also would seem to bump Tyler Mahle, who started 25 games for the Reds last season, out of the rotation. So, who might the Louisville Bats, Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate, send to the hill on a nightly basis?

The Reds starters may be the best in the National League Central. Cy Young candidates Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray sit atop the rotation, while former Cleveland Indians starter Trevor Bauer will suit up for his first full-season in the Queen City. Miley signed a two-year deal this past winter and Anthony DeSclafani is coming off an impressive season in 2019.

Beyond Mahle, the Reds do not have a lot of depth at the Triple-A level. The majority of starting pitchers joining Cincinnati in spring camp have only pitched in the minor leagues, and most have not played above Double-A. Developing starting pitching will be a key to this season for Pat Kelly and the Louisville, especially with DeSclafani and Bauer entering free agency after this season.

The Louisville Bats home opener this season is on April 11th inside the beautiful stadium in downtown Louisville known as Slugger Field. Who’s going to get the nod when the Bats play host the Columbus Clippers? What might we expect from the next tier of Cincinnati starters this season at Triple-A Louisville?

PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 29: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

1. Tyler Mahle, Right-handed pitcher

Barring an injury to one of the Cincinnati Reds presumptive starters, it’s highly likely that Tyler Mahle begins the 2020 season at Triple-A Louisville. That was, in fact, the plan last year for Mahle, but an injury to Alex Wood forced the right-hander into action and he started 25 games for the Reds in 2019.

A lot of fans will point to Mahle’s 3-12 record. Granted, 12 losses is a big number, but if you look beyond the traditional statistics, you see the makings of a solid starting pitcher who improved from 2018 to 2019.

Tyler Mahle’s ERA in 2018 was 4.98, which was a little better than the 5.14 ERA he put up last season. However, if you look at Mahle’s FIP, which, according to FanGraphs, measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing, 2019 was his better season.

Mahle’s FIP in 2019 was 4.66, 48 points better than his ERA. In 2018, Mahle’s FIP was 5.25, which is 27 points worse than his ERA. Essentially, FIP eliminates defense and chance, giving you a more complete perspective of how the pitcher performed against the hitter.

Furthermore, according to FanGraphs, Mahle saw his walk-rate decrease from 10.5% in 2018 to 6.1% in 2019. Also, Mahle saw a slight uptick in strikeout-rate. Where the Reds need to see an improvement from Mahle is in the home run category. Mahle surrendered 25 big flies last season. He’ll have some time with Triple-A Louisville to hopefully get that under control.

GOODYEAR, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 19: Tony Santillan #74 poses during Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

2. Tony Santillan, Right-handed pitcher

Tony Santillan was expected to make some noise at the Triple-A level last season, but the big right-hander never put together a consistent enough performance to warrant a promotion to Louisville. A solid spring in Goodyear could find one of the Reds top young prospects with a chance to crack the starting rotation with the Louisville Bats.

The Reds took Santillan in the second round of the 2015 MLB Draft out Seguin High School in Texas. Santillan’s fastball is his best pitch, and easily touches the upper-90s. After having success at Double-A Pensacola in 2018, the numbers at Double-A Chattanooga were not that good.

Santillan tore up the Florida State League in 2018, putting together a 4-3 record in 11 starts with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Last year, Santillan’s performance yielded much different results. The power-throwing right-hander went 2-8 in 21 starts with a 4.84 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. Most concerning, however, was walk-rate that jumped from 6.0% (2018)to 11.6% (2019).

The pure stuff is there for Tony Santillan, but he has to harness some consistency and control. Santillan’s strikeout-rate dropped from 22.8% in 2018 to 19.8% last season for the Chattanooga Lookouts.

Where Santillan did find success in 2019 was limiting home runs. Santillan allowed eight balls to leave the yard in just 62.1 innings or work in 2018, but kept that number at eight in 2019 as well despite throwing an additional 40 innings. Keeping the ball in the park will be crucial for Santillan’s development this coming season, as will avoiding the free pass.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: The game ball is left on the mound prior to Game One of the 2019 World Series (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

3. Vladimir Gutierrez, Right-handed pitcher

Vladimir Gutierrez spent the entire 2019 season with the Louisville Bats and is likely to begin the 2020 season back in the Derby City. Much like Tony Santillan, Gutierrez’s 2018 campaign was much better than his performance last season. Gutierrez went 6-11 with a 6.04 ERA in 27 for Triple-A Louisville.

Gutierrez is one of the top pitching prospects in Cincinnati’s farm system. After putting up solid numbers in Double-A Pensacola in 2018, there were some who thought Gutierrez was going to make his big league debut last season. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case.

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Gutierrez struggled across the board in 2019. According to FanGraphs, is walk-rate was up, his strikeout-rate was down and his home runs per 9 innings was almost double. Gutierrez, who was ranked No. 8 in the farm system according to MLB Pipeline last spring, fell to No. 11 as the season concluded and may find himself outside the Top 20 before this season begins.

On the bright side, Vladimir Gutierrez has put up solid stats during his time in the Dominican Winter League. Gutierrez went 1-4 in seven starts with a 3.21 ERA in 28.0 innings of work. Gutierrez still put up a high number of walks, issuing 12 free passes.

Vladimir Gutierrez was one of the top international signings when the Cincinnati Reds inked him to a deal in 2016. Gutierrez needs to return to form while likely drawing the start every fifth day at Triple-A Louisville. If Gutierrez produces at a high level this season for the Louisville Bats, don’t count him out of a spot in next year’s rotation at the major league level.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 15: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

4. Tejay Antone, Right-handed pitcher

Not many fans had heard of Tejay Antone before last season. A fifth-round pick back in 2015, Antone split last season between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. The 26-year-old was added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason and don’t be shocked if Antone draws a spot start at some point this season.

Antone is currently ranked No. 28 in the Reds farm system according to MLB Pipeline and will likely find a home in Louisville to begin the 2020 season. After 13 starts for the Chattanooga Lookouts in 2019, Antone received a promotion to play for the Louisville Bats where he drew the start in 13 games as well.

Antone missed all of the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery, but he returned the following season and played 17 games for Advanced-A Daytona. According to FanGraphs, Antone has seen a slight uptick in strikeout-rate since returning to action in 2018.

Unlike Vladimir Gutierrez and Tony Santillan, Antone is not going to blow hitters away with the fastball. Typically, Tejay Antone’s heater stays in the low-to-mid 90s. However, Antone’s fastball does have some sink to it, which led to him owning a ground ball-rate above 50% at both Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville last season.

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Antone making his major league debut in 2020, especially if one of the Reds relievers is expected to be out for a significant amount of time. While he’s likely to see thee majority of his time in Louisville as a starter, the Reds may use Antone in a similar role to what we saw from Lucas Sims last season.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 22: Detail shot of a bat and glove on the field (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) /

5. Packy Naughton, Left-handed pitcher

The last spot in the Louisville Bats starting rotation could go any number of ways, but I’m going to give the nod to Packy Naughton. Though not yet a part of the Cincinnati Reds 40-man roster, Naughton put up some solid number for Double-A Chattanooga last season. If Naughton puts together some decent numbers at spring camp, perhaps the lefty will earn a spot in Pat Kelly’s rotation.

Naughton was a ninth-round pick of the Reds back in 2017 and put together a nice season for the Chattanooga Lookouts in 2019. Naughton went 6-10 with a 3.66 ERA and a 3.54 FIP. Being a left-handed pitcher is always an advantage in terms of staying power, but in a Cincinnati organization starved for a left-handed starter, Naughton may be given a lot of opportunities to grow.

The Reds also selected a lefty in the first-round of last year’s draft. However, despite the likely meteoric rise of Nick Lodolo through Cincinnati’s farm system, Naughton may be the next southpaw in line for a promotion to Triple-A Louisville.

There’s also the possibility that Cincinnati wants to see more of Naughton at the Double-A level. After all, he played only 19 games at Chattanooga last season and, according to FanGraphs, his strikeout-rate went down and his walk-rate went up. The Reds may want to see Naughton develop more at the Double-A level before bumping up to Triple-A Louisville.

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Spring training will definitely offer some insight as to who’ll take the ball on Opening Day for the Louisville Bats. The Triple-A affiliate of the Cincinnati Reds kicks off their 2020 season on the road at Columbus on Thursday, April 9th. The Bats home opener at Louisville Slugger Field will be Saturday, April 11th.

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