Cincinnati Reds: Three players most likely to have a breakout season

Last year, Cincinnati Reds starter Luis Castillo had a breakout season. Which three Reds players are most likely to have a breakout season in 2020?

What really defines a breakout season? We all know one when we see. It usually involves a younger player, brimming with unrealized potential who finally figures it out and puts together a memorable season. Luis Castillo had, what many would call, a breakout season in 2019. Which three players on the Cincinnati Reds roster are most likely to follow in Castillo’s footsteps?

In 2018, Castillo showed flashes of the player we’d all come to know and love. That year, La Peidra went 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA in 31 starts. Castillo struck out 165 batters and recorded an ERA+ of 97. Last year, Castillo went to his first All-Star Game and put up a 15-8 record with a 3.40 ERA in 32 starts. The right-hander struck out 226 batters and his ERA+ jumped up to 133.

In 2018, it could be argued that Eugenio Suárez had his breakout season. At 26-years old, Suárez saw a big jump in power numbers from the year prior, as his slugging percentage went from .461 to .526. Geno also bumped his home run total from 26 in 2017 to 34 in 2018. The Reds third baseman also set a career-high in RBIs (104).

So, which player on the Reds may experience a similar season to what fans saw from Suárez in 2018 and Castillo in 2019? Will it be a pitcher? Is there a position player on this year’s team ready to make that leap? Let’s examine the three most likely candidates on the Cincinnati Reds roster who’s ready to jump from starter to star.

1. Anthony DeSclafani, Right-handed pitcher

I’m going to go out on a huge limb here, and predict that Anthony DeSclafani is selected to his first All-Star Game in 2020. Reds fans know the potential that Disco has, and last year was proof that nearly two years of absence from the game hadn’t ruined his ability. I’m looking for big-time production from DeSclafani, and it just so happens that he’s a free agent next winter.

Our friend Clay Snowden over at Locked On Reds predicts that DeSclafani will eclipse his career-high in wins this next season. Not only is Disco likely to set a new career-high in terms of wins, I think we’ll the right-hander set new career-bests in nearly every category.

Last season, DeSclafani entered some nice company. Disco’s ERA (3.89) and strikeouts (167) put him among the Top 20 in the National League. I’d look for those numbers to improve this coming season, as Disco saw his strikeout-rate (24.0%) reach an all-time high last season according to FanGraphs.

There is one bugaboo that DeSclafani must correct if he’s to reach his ceiling, and that’s the long ball. Last season, Disco surrendered a career-worst 29 home runs to opposing batters. Yes, the Reds play in a hitter’s friendly ballpark, but nearly half (14) of the 29 dingers DeSclafani allowed came on the road.

This year’s Reds team is better across the board. With so much focus on the likes of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and the new addition, Wade Miley, Anthony DeSclafani seems to be the forgotten starter. Disco can change that narrative very quickly if he gets off to a hot start.

2. Robert Stephenson, Right-handed pitcher

Robert Stephenson was all but a forgotten member of the Cincinnati pitching staff following the 2018 season. After being drafted in the first-round out of high school and having little success to show for it, the 25-year-old went 0-2 with 9.26 ERA in 4 games that year. But a bounce-back performance in 2019 has setup Stephenson to make a big leap this coming season.

If Raisel Iglesias struggles as the Reds closer, look for Stephenson or Pedro Strop to take over in the ninth inning. Stephenson has just one save to his name during his four-year career, but he showed that he has the stuff to get the job done late in games last season.

In 2019, Bob Steve put up career-numbers. In 57 relief appearances, Stephenson went 3-2 with a 3.76 ERA in 64.2 innings of work. The 26-year-old struck out 81 batters, and finally realized that walks didn’t have to be part of his game.

For his career, Stephenson’s walk-rate was virtually unfathomable. In 2017, Stephenson’s walk-rate was 13.8% and his BB/9 was 5.63. In 2018, those numbers went even higher. According to FanGraphs, Stephenson’s walk-rate that season was 19.1% and his BB/9 was 9.26. Last season, however, Stephenson turned it around and had a walk-rate of 9.2% and a BB/9 of 3.34.

As impressive was Robert Stephenson’s strikeout rate in 2019. After putting up a strikeout-rate of just 17.5% in 2018, the lowest of his major league career, Stephenson’s strikeout-rate rose to 30.9%. To say that Stephenson has found a home in the bullpen would be an understatement. Look for Bob Steve to become a household name in 2020.