Cincinnati Reds: PECOTA projects division title in 2020

Baseball Prospectus released their projected standings for the 2020 season. Fans of the Cincinnati Reds are going to like the results.

Reds fans aren’t the only ones predicting big things for their team in 2020. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary system that projects player and team performance. The projection system predicts the Cincinnati Reds will take home the National League Central Division title in 2020.

Reds Country has enjoyed an offseason filled with promise. The Reds signed outfielders Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama, pitchers Wade Miley and Pedro Strop, and second baseman Mike Moustakas. Dick Williams and Nick Krall put together a winter that few fans in the Queen City have ever seen.

The projections from PECOTA obviously insist that the rest of the baseball world has taken notice. After years of toiling in the NL Central basement, it appears that the Reds are ready to contend for a spot in the postseason. PECOTA predicts that Cincinnati will rack up approximately 86 wins and take home the division crown.

Baseball Prospectus has an elaborate way of calculating a team’s projected win-loss record. The simulations to do pick teams to win a certain number of games, but rather gives you an estimated range of the number of games a team might win.

The PECOTA projections put the Chicago Cubs right behind the Cincinnati Reds in the simulated standings. The St. Louis Cardinals are projected to finish around .500, while the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates finish fourth and fifth respectively.

The simulation also gives Cincinnati just below a 50% chance to win the division title and a 66% chance to make the postseason. If the projections are correct, this would be the first time since 2013 that the Cincinnati Reds returned to October baseball.

Cincinnati already had one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball. Add to that the power bats of Moustakas and Castellanos, coupled with the on-base ability of Akiyama, and the Reds have the makings of a contender. However, these are just projections, and the games aren’t played on paper. That said, this should be an exciting season of baseball in Cincinnati.