Cincinnati Reds: Outfielders most likely to be traded if Marcell Ozuna signs

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ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 09: Marcell Ozuna #23 of the St. Louis Cardinals scores a run on a double by teammate Tommy Edman (not pictured) against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning in game five of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 09, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

The Cincinnati Reds have been linked to Marcell Ozuna throughout the offseason. If Ozuna signs, which outfielder is most likely to be traded?

The Cincinnati Reds reportedly signed Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama to a three-year contract earlier this week. That was thought to have closed the book on any additional outfielders joining the club. However, it was reported a couple days ago that Marcell Ozuna is still on the Reds radar. Does the pursuit of Ozuna reveal Cincinnati’s desire to trade one or more outfielders this winter?

If Ozuna signs with Cincinnati, the Reds would have a grand total of 12 outfielders on the 40-man roster. That includes the reported signing of Akiyama as well. Obviously, the team cannot enter the 2020 season with that many outfielders, and several will not make the cut once spring training is underway. However, there are several talented players that might not be on next year’s squad.

While the outfield would seem to be a position of strength with the possible addition of Ozuna, there are still some holes on the Reds roster. There’s an obvious void at shortstop and the relief corp could use a few new faces as well. Finding a capable shortstop beyond Freddy Galvis and adding an extra arm to the team’s bullpen should still be on the front office’s radar.

Under the assumption that Ozuna signs a multi-year deal with the Reds, he and Akiyama would be assured spots on next year’s team. But what about the remainder of outfielders? Who is the most likely player among those on the outfield grass to be dealt this offseason? Let’s take a look.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – AUGUST 29: Aristides Aquino #44 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Marlins Park on August 29, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

5. Aristides Aquino

I find it highly unlikely that Aristides Aquino would be involved in any type of trade discussions, but of all the outfielders on the Cincinnati Reds roster, The Punisher would bring back the most in return. Aquino’s offensive outburst during the month of August showed what the 25-year-old was capable of, and that type of power is very desirable among GMs these days.

Aquino was a man on a mission after taking over for Yasiel Puig following the slugger’s trade to the Cleveland Indians at last year’s deadline. The Punisher had been obliterating balls at Triple-A Louisville, and brought that same power to Cincinnati. In August, Aquino slashed .320/.391/.767 with 14 homers and 33 RBIs.

The month of September, however, was not as kind to the rookie. Aquino’s batting average plummeted to .196 and he only hit four round-trippers to end the 2019 season with 19 dingers and 47 RBIs. Not too shabby for a player who only received 205 at-bats during the season. Aquino started all but three games over the final two months of the season.

While he has not been handed the keys to the starting job in right field, Aquino definitely has the inside track. I see virtually no way that Dick Williams and Nick Krall dangle Aquino as a possible trade chip, though the return for his services could be huge. That said, The Punisher is under team control for the next several years and has the chance to be a star. I don’t see him going anywhere.

Chances Aristides Aquino is traded if the Reds sign Marcell Ozuna:: < 5%

CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 05: Phillip Ervin #6 of the Cincinnati Reds hits the game winning home run in the 11th inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on September 05, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

4. Phillip Ervin

We go from virtually untouchable to very tradeable. Oddly enough, the remaining four players on this list could all find themselves on a new team if the Cincinnati Reds agree to terms with free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Phillip Ervin comes in at No. 4 due to his versatility and his ability to mash against left-handed pitching.

Ervin, a former first-round pick of the Reds, is unlikely to ever become a star. But, his skillset lends itself to a versatile outfielder, capable of playing multiple positions, with power from the right. Ervin also has decent speed and saw some improvements in his defense last season. With the expanded roster from 25 to 26, Ervin seems like the perfect fourth outfielder on next year’s team.

The problem for Ervin, if we’re under the assumption of an outfield comprised of Marcell Ozuna, Shogo Akiyama, and Aristides Aquino, would be getting at-bats against left-handers. Ervin took out his frustrations against southpaws last season to the tune of .349/.411/.628. However, with Akiyama’s ability to hit lefties and Ozuna and Aquino bringing right-handed power, his ABs would be few and far between.

While Nick Martini and Travis Jankowski are currently on the Reds 40-man roster, there prospects of making the squad are quite low, especially under the assumption that Ozuna signs with Cincinnati. With that in mind, the lack of a backup centerfielder for Akiyama outside of prospect Jose Siri might cause the front office toward keeping Ervin.

Chances Phillip Ervin is traded if the Reds sign Marcell Ozuna: 20%

CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 04: Josh VanMeter #17 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a RBI single in the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on September 04, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

3. Josh VanMeter

Josh VanMeter proved himself to be a capable major league ball player last season. Called up in early May, VanMeter eventually stuck on the 25-man roster as the season waned and showed versatility in the field and power at the dish. However, he now looks like a player without a position, and that’s a precarious place to be.

VanMeter was not a highly-regarded prospect before his promotion to the big leagues last season. After torching opposing pitching in Triple-A Louisville, VanMeter received the call shortly after his buddy, Nick Senzel, made the jump to the majors. A jack-of-all-trades, VanMeter showed the ability to play both the infield and the outfield, hitting .237 with 8 home runs and 23 RBIs in 228 at-bats.

A lot of fans were screaming for VanMeter to become the Reds starting second baseman heading into this coming season. The addition of Mike Moustakas quieted that conversation, and outside of shortstop, Cincinnati appears set at every infield position. Unfortunately for VanMeter, shortstop is not his forte.

VanMeter has all the makings of a left-handed bench bat for the Reds next season. His ability to play first, second, and third base, as well as left field, make him a valuable asset defensively. The problem is, his defense was suspect, especially in the outfield. If he remains on the roster, David Bell could deploy VanMeter in left when the matchup doesn’t favor Ozuna, but otherwise, his opportunities will be limited.

Chances Josh VanMeter is traded if the Reds sign Marcell Ozuna: 25%

MIAMI, FLORIDA – AUGUST 27: Nick Senzel #15 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on August 27, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

2. Nick Senzel

If the Cincinnati Reds do sign Marcell Ozuna this offseason, Nick Senzel becomes one of the primary trade chips in the organization. After signing Shogo Akiyama, Senzel’s future became a bit cloudy. The former infielder may be pushed out as the team’s primary centerfielder next season, especially if Cincinnati signs Ozuna.

Akiyama, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, is viewed by the organization as a player who can play all over the outfield, not just up the middle. However, if Ozuna inks a deal with the Reds, you can bet that Akiyama will become the team’s primary centerfielder while the former Cardinals slugger takes over in left.

So what would become of Nick Senzel if Ozuna signs with Cincinnati? I foresee two options. First, the Reds could opt to switch Senzel from center field to shortstop. Three of the four infield spots are set heading into 2020, but Freddy Galvis is currently the best option at shortstop. Though he has just one inning of professional experience at the position, there’s reason to believe Senzel could make the transition.

The second, and perhaps, more likely option, is that Senzel is packaged in a trade. If Dick Williams and Nick Krall are toying with the idea of dealing Senzel, then it’s not going to be for a player to be named later. Senzel possesses a ton of upside and potential, and could be the key piece in a possible deal for Francisco Lindor or Corey Seager.

Chances Nick Senzel is traded if the Reds sign Marcell Ozuna: 50%

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 19: Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a game winning RBI single in the 9th inning against the Houston Astros at Great American Ball Park on June 19, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

1. Jesse Winker

If the Cincinnati Reds signed Marcell Ozuna, Jesse Winker becomes the most likely player on the roster to be dealt. Following Aristides Aquino’s breakout performance in 2019, Winker’s already on shaky ground. While he an Aquino could form a platoon in right field next season, he may offer more value for the club if he were traded.

Now, Winker is not going to bring the same level of return that Nick Senzel would, but the New York native would still bring some quality players, perhaps an additional bullpen arm or two. Winker is loaded with potential, but his inability to hit against left-handed pitching and lack of speed are a bit concerning, as is his ability to stay healthy.

Winker gets on base, which is something of great value in today’s game. He also has power from the left side, another essential trait that would make opposing GMs drool. One might question if Jesse Winker would thrive as a designated hitter in the American League. While his defense is not terrible, according to FanGraphs, he had a -3 defensive runs scored last season.

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If Ozuna is signed by the Reds, Winker essentially becomes a platoon player in right field. While that may not be the worst use of his talents, Winker has the ability to be an everyday player and another team desperate for a left-handed bat may be willing to make a deal.

Chances Jesse Winker is traded if the Reds sign Marcell Ozuna: 70%

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