Cincinnati Reds: It’s time to sign Luis Castillo to a multi-year extension

Luis Castillo gives the Cincinnati Reds a presence on the mound we haven’t seen since Johnny Cueto. It’s time to sign Castillo to an extension.

Luis Castillo is having a dominate year on the mound for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s truly become one of the best pitchers in the entire league with a fastball that consistently sits in the upper 90s and a devastating change-up. Castillo has proven to be the ace that this team has been missing since Johnny Cueto was traded. It’s time to offer Luis Castillo a multi-year extension.

Castillo’s numbers speak for themselves, but where do they stand among other major league pitchers? Castillo’s ERA of 2.63 is fourth among all starters. The only Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers), Mike Soroka (Braves), and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer have better numbers. Considering Ryu could win the Cy Young, Soroka could win Rookie of the Year, and Max Scherzer is, well, Max Scherzer, that’s great company to be in.

Castillo’s 151 strikeouts rank 15th in the league. A WHIP of 1.13 is just outside the Top 20. Castillo has only given up 88 hits over 130 innings this year, but has given up 55 walks. While the hits number is excellent, the walks adds up to 4.1 per nine innings, which is much too high for a pitcher of his quality.

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I’d be willing to bet that as Castillo continues to improve over the next few seasons, his walks will drop, and his WHIP along with it. The increased control could lead Castillo closer to the elite-level of Scherzer,Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander, who are have a WHIP of 1.00 or less.

One of my favorite pitching stats, batting average against, calculates opposing hitters batting average against a  specific pitcher. If you want to see who befuddles opposing hitters the most, take a peek.

You’ll see Verlander is first with opponents hitting just .169. Coming in second is none other than Luis Castillo at .192. Castillo and, the future Hall of Famer, Verlander at the only two pitchers keeping batters from hitting over .200.

The Reds should extend Castillo now. Contract extensions for young players have become more popular over the past season or two. Just last offseason, according to Sportrac.com, Blake Snell (5-year/$50M), Aaron Nola (4-year/$45M), and Luis Severino (4-year/$40M) all signed extensions before becoming free agents.

Taking a glance at their stats, they compare nicely to Castillo’s. Snell does have a Cy Young under his belt, but statistically they are a good comparison. While Castillo does have four years of team control remaining and won’t become a free agent until 2024, three of those years could see Castillo’s annual salary jump up to somewhere between $12-$18M.

So, why not sign him now? A six-year/$75M contract would give Castillo an annual average value (AAV) of $12.5M through his age 32 season. An AAV of $12.5M  is a bargain for the Cincinnati Reds, but also gives Castillo a multi-million dollar insurance policy that will cover him for the rest of his life. It’s time to extend our ace and it can be mutually beneficial.