Cincinnati Reds: Is Danny Duffy a possible trade target?

The Athletics’ Ken Rosenthal laid out an interesting scenario involving Danny Duffy and the Cincinnati Reds. Would it make sense for the Reds?

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently published an interesting scenario involving the Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals starter Danny Duffy. The Reds front office has claimed to be buyers at the trade deadline, but not in the traditional sense. Dick Williams and Nick Krall only want to make moves that improve the club over the long haul. This would certainly qualify.

Rosenthal suggests that the Reds trade for Duffy while, in a different deal, ship out right-hander Tanner Roark. Roark has been a solid piece of the rotation for the Reds this season, but he’ll be a free agent after the season.

Several fans, myself included, would love to see the Reds retain Roark beyond this year, but his future with the club is up in the air. A lot of ball clubs, including the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees, are looking for a starter as they make a push for the postseason.

More from Blog Red Machine

• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin adds another twist to offseason roster construction
• Reds: Signing Tyler Mahle to a contract extension should be a top priority
• Reds: Reiver Sanmartin should get first major league start vs Pirates
• Reds should unquestionably bring Wade Miley back in 2022
• Reds: TJ Friedl’s fast start will earn him opportunities in 2022

On the other side of the coin, the Reds need to look long-term at how their rotation is going to shake out. Obviously Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray have established themselves and will be part of the starting staff for the foreseeable future. Alex Wood has yet to pitch this season and will be a free agent heading into the offseason.

Anthony DeSclafani has shown flashes of brilliance, but has also shown a penchant to surrender the long ball. He’ll likely have a spot in next year’s rotation, but Disco has done nothing to prove that he’ll be a long-term answer. Lucas Sims and Tyler Mahle have been given opportunities this season, but neither has grabbed the bull by the horns.

All of this brings us back to Danny Duffy. Would he fit the long-term plans for the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation? The left-hander is 4-5 on the season with a 4.32 ERA in 16 starts. Duffy has 80 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched and a WHIP of 1.361. Over his nine-year career, his FIP is pretty much in line with his ERA and Duffy’s pitched over 130 innings in each of the last five seasons.

If you’re asking me whether I’d prefer the Reds keep Tanner Roark or trade for Danny Duffy, I’d stick with Roark. The right-hander has a better overall track record, appears to be a positive influence in the clubhouse, and he’s a gritty player that’s going to give you his best effort night in and night out.

The biggest question surrounding Roark’s future with the Reds is whether or not the club plans to sign him to a long-term deal. The right-hander is currently making $10M this season, and given this is his first opportunity to sign a multi-year deal, Roark is likely to get as much as he can during the negotiating process this offseason.

What’s a contract for Roark look like? Well, last year, Lance Lynn signed a 3-year/$30M contract with the Texas Rangers and Charlie Morton signed a 2-year/$30M deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. Those are fair comps, so one should expect Roark to receive a contract with an average annual value (AAV) between $12-$15M.

Danny Duffy is signed for the next two seasons. The southpaw will make $15.2M in 2020 and $15.5M in 2021. While Cincinnati can definitely afford that contract, it seems to me that the better route might be to re-sign Roark and keep your prospects.

Ken Rosenthal’s idea is sound and it could very well come to fruition. However, for my money, I’d prefer to see the Reds steer clear of trading Tanner Roark. Now, obviously, if the front office is blown away by an offer, that changes things. The trade deadline is 4 PM next Wednesday.