Cincinnati Reds’ offense continues to ride a roller coaster

As the Cincinnati Reds play out the string, the offense goes up and down like almost nothing.

The Cincinnati Reds got off to a hot start to the season, cooled down, warmed up, cooled down, and so on like pizza after a Friday night sleepover.  Relying so completely on the long ball has been part of the issue.  So has been the reluctance to ride the hot bat.

Looking back over the season, bench players Patrick Kivlehan, Arismendys Alcantara, and Scooter Gennett have all had hot streaks.  Only Gennett, whose streak lasted the entire month of June, was able to break through to consistent playing time.  In fact, it may have taken the initial injury to Zack Cozart for that look to remain consistent.

More than riding the hot bat, though, the Reds’ offensive roller coaster can be attributed to the usual suspect, Billy Hamilton.  This isn’t a criticism of Hamilton.  Shame on the Reds for leaving an ill-suited batter in the lead-off spot.

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Time after time after time after time, the numbers have shown that the top three batters in an MLB line-up need to have respectable OBPs regardless of what else they bring to the table.  Hamilton doesn’t have that.  By month his OBP in 2017 are .265, .339, .267, .333, and .269 in April-August.

The Cincinnati Reds must determine if Billy Hamilton’s OBP woes is what is ailing the offensive consistency of the team.

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It’s time to force the issue.  The Reds ranked 10th, 8th, 20th, 28th, and 4th in runs scored in the months April-August.  It doesn’t match!

Hamilton is holding down the Reds’ offense, but his OBP is not the cause of its inconsistency.  Stop the presses!  There is something else at play here.

Three stats stand out when looking at the Reds offense: home runs, walks, and steals.  In walks the Reds ranked 23rd, 14th, 21st, 6th and 1st April-August.  It is not walks by themselves.

The steals could drive the Reds’ consistency.  In steals the Reds ranked 3rd, 1st, 19th, 7th and 3rd April-August.  That’s a roller coaster, however doesn’t explain the nose-dive in July at all.

In home runs the Reds ranked 8th, 6th, 10th, 22nd, and 3rd.  That is what we call correlational evidence.  It is time for everyone to get off of Hamilton’s back.

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Nearly 100% of the variation in runs scored month over month is due to the home runs hit.  That means that Scott Schebler, who was battling Joey Votto for the National League home run lead earlier this season, is a big reason why the Reds slowed down in July.  Schebler and not Hamilton may be the guy that needs to get replaced for next season.  Who’d thunk that?