Cincinnati Reds rely too much on home runs to score and to win

The Cincinnati Reds have fallen in love with the home run to the detriment of scoring runs.

The Cincinnati Reds in 2017 have a trio that is chasing the 1970 trio of Johnny Bench, Tony Perez and Lee May for the record books.  The 1970 trio set the record for the most home runs by three Reds’ player in a season at 119.  Something was going on at Crosley Field, as it also was the season that Pete Rose set his career high at 15.

For the 2017 version it is a pair of sluggers and the best first baseman in baseball, Joey Votto.  Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall have each had offensive issues beyond hitting home runs.  Duvall has had trouble getting on base, while Schebler has had trouble getting hits.

Duvall is having a career year.  His slugging has gone down a bit versus last year, but his OBP has stabilized.  After finishing last year with a high risk-high reward approach at the plate, Duvall has been able to maintain an OBP competitive with Schebler all season.

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Schebler, meanwhile, has had difficulty maintaining a batting average above .250 this season.  His home runs make up a 1/3 of his hits, while they make up just 1/4 of Votto’s hits.  That ratio maintains Schebler as a bottom of the order hitter.

Because of the construction of the line-up, the Cincinnati Reds rely on the home runs to score runs.

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When the Reds have Billy Hamilton batting lead-off, too often there isn’t somebody on in front of the sluggers.  Schebler’s inability to get hits regularly keeps him batting sixth or seventh, too.  That means there is a gap between the trio.

The Reds’ trio then batted in order and that change may make sense here too.  They batted 4-6 in 1970 and moving Votto to the five spot with OBP hitters in the top three could help the Reds score more runs.  It could also provide a different level of pitches to Adam Duvall.

Scooter Gennett has done a good job of getting on-base since his promotion to the starting line-up.  Eugenio Suarez also gets on at a nice clip.  Maybe placing the catcher in the top three could set the table better for the Reds.

Next: Joey Votto is the best first baseman in the game today

The 1970 Reds were fifth in the MLB in runs scored,  The 2017 version is 13th and has been sinking for the past three weeks.  It’s time to shake things up because what isn’t working this year isn’t going to magically work next year, either.