Cincinnati Reds’ starting pitching conundrum through the example of Lisalverto Bonilla

What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds’ starting pitching plan for 2017 and why is Lisalverto Bonila the pitcher to help us see this?

To date the Cincinnati Reds have the worst starting pitching in baseball thanks in large part to injuries.  They had a good rotation in theory with Dan Straily, Anthony DeSclafani, and Homer Bailey penciled in at the end of 2016.  Then they traded Straily and the dominoes began to fall.

After Straily left, Bailey, DeSclafani, and prospect Nick Travieso all started the season on the DL.  The Reds should have anticipated that with Disco and Bailey both running into issues to start the season.  The Travieso injury was unexpected, but not unheard of.

Since then starters Rookie Davis, Brandon Finnegan, Amir Garrett, and Sal Romano have all spent time on the DL in Cincinnati or Louisville.  All of these pitchers are supposed to be workhorses.  It is tough to be a workhorse and stay healthy when you have high pitch counts in the early innings.

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That’s why Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson are gone from the starting rotation discussion.  It takes an aggressive pitcher to compete with a pitch count under 100.  After a few long at-bats by the opposition and you are looking over your shoulder.

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This is the same bug that has bitten both Lisalverto Bonilla and the rest of the young Cincinnati Reds’ starting pitchers.

Bonilla exemplifies the situation because he only pitched in four games this season so far.  He almost made the team out of spring training in one of the last bullpen spots, but lost out to Reed and Stephenson.  He went down to Louisville as a starter before the Reds called him back up.

In four games Bonilla has averaged 5 2/3 innings and 92 pitches per appearance.  Why is that important?

If Bonilla was doing well in his average game, the Reds would pull him after six innings because of the pitch count.

Bonilla has two decent appearances and a pair of less than stellar ones.  Twice he had pitched five or more innings while allowing three runs.  That is just a touch better than replacement level.

The other thing about Bonilla’s appearances is that he has allowed a home run in every one.  That is indicative of the Reds’ starters.  They have allowed 50 home runs, the most by 8 in the National League.

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That’s what makes Bonilla a great case.  The Reds’ pitchers throw a few too many pitches and allow a few too many home runs.  With the injury to Garrett, though, the rotation is heading in the wrong direction.