Cincinnati Reds Starting Rotation Worst in Major League Baseball

In perhaps the most predictable storyline of the 2017 season, the Cincinnati Reds have the worst pitching staff in all of MLB…again.

The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff was historically bad last season.

The Reds started fifteen different pitchers and few had good seasons.  This included starting appearances by Tim Melville, Daniel Wright, and current closer Raisel Iglesias among others.  The starting pitchers went 49-67 last year while setting historically bad records.

In fact, it was so bad, it inspired the following articles:

The Reds’ Pitching Might Be The Worst of All Time – FiveThirtyEight.com

Understanding the Plight of Cincinnati’s Historically Awful Starting Pitching Staff – TheRinger.com

The Reds Actually Did It – Fangraphs.com

The piece from Fangraphs, written by Jeff Sullivan, explains that the 2016 Reds became the first pitching staff since 1900 to finish a season with a negative WAR, effectively making them the worst staff in baseball history.  Last year it was the bullpen that led the way in ineptitude with a -3.6 WAR, as the next worst bullpen (Rays) finished with a 0.1 WAR.  For some perspective on how large of a chasm that is; the 3.7 difference in WAR between the Reds and the Rays is equal to the difference between the Rays and the Chicago White Sox, who ranked 18th with 3.7 WAR.

The Reds’ rotation was also worst in the majors last year, but not historically bad like the bullpen.  Their 3.1 WAR, 5.17 FIP, 1.62 HR/9, 3.55 BB/9, and 859 IP were all the worst marks in the entire major leagues last season, but bright spots like Dan Straily, Brandon Finnegan, and Anthony DeSclafani made them just run-of-the-mill terrible, not historically terrible.

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However, thanks to a combination of self-inflicted wounds and bad injury luck, 2017 is shaping up to be historically terrible for the Cincinnati Reds.

Hoping to sell high before a season where most picked the Reds to finish in last place, Cincinnati traded Straily to Miami for prospects. Straily was the Reds best starter in 2016, but he became a valuable trade chip for the Reds due to his inexpensive contract.  DeSclafani and Homer Bailey then began the season injured and Finnegan later joined them on the disabled list after just three starts.  All three pitchers are out until late June or July at the earliest.  Combined with the Straily trade, that means four of the Reds’ five projected starting pitchers haven’t been able to contribute for the majority of the 2017 season.

In their place, the Reds have tried to make due with an underwhelming cast of young or inexperienced pitchers that have included Tim Adleman, Rookie Davis, Sal Romano, Lisalverto Bonilla, Amir Garrett, and Cody Reed.  While Garrett and Adleman have pitched well in a couple of games, they enter the week with FIPs of 5.49 and 5.43 respectively.  Out of 152 starters that have pitched more than 20 innings this season, they rank 134th and 135th in FIP.

As bad as the young arms have pitched for the Cincinnati Reds, it’s nothing compared to the failed Bronson Arroyo experiment.

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Who would’ve thought a 40 year old pitcher that hadn’t pitched in two seasons would struggle against major league hitters?  Arroyo has the 5th worst FIP in the majors at 6.96.  He is on pace to easily eclipse his awful 2011 season.  That was the worst single season from a starter in Reds history.  Arroyo finished that 2011 season with a -1.1 WAR, and 2.08 HR/9.  Those are both the worst numbers in Reds history for any starter with over 100 innings in a season.  In just nine starts  he already has a -0.6 WAR, and a HR/9 rate of 2.89.

The main issues for the Reds rotation in 2017 have been walks and home runs.  The Reds starters are leading the majors with a HR/9 rate of 1.86.

Their 4.28 BB/9 is good for second worst.  By all measures it’s been an awful start to the season for Cincinnati pitchers.

The most frustrating part is that the Reds offense and bullpen have been solid. Their defense has been perhaps the best in baseball, too.  They have one hole, scratch that, five holes in the rotation.  Those five holes are burying any chance the Reds had at competing in 2017.

Billy Hamilton can steal 100 bases and Joey Votto can lead the league in OPS. The defense can even lead the league in fielding.  If your starters generate a negative WAR, then you just won’t be competitive.

Next: The Reds pitchers don't do well in Louisville, either

We’re only a quarter of the way through the season.  It is time for the 2016 Reds pitching staff to get the champagne ready.  It appears their stint as the worst pitching staff of all-time could end this year.  For a second time in just one short year the Reds could set history.