Cincinnati Reds: Is Billy Hamilton Showing Improvement At The Plate?

Offense has been a struggle for Billy Hamilton. Is he making strides at the plate in 2016?

Everyone knows Billy Hamilton is one of the fastest players baseball has ever seen. He’s got the glove to go with it, ranking among the best center fielders in the game. But where he has always lagged behind is with the bat.

Through his first two full seasons, the speedster stole 113 bases and has been a Gold Glove finalist, but hit just .240/.285/.327 with 43 extra-base hits, good for a 78 wRC+ in 2014 and 52 in 2015.

The problems were widespread. Standing at just six feet tall and 160 pounds, he has little pop to speak of. Yet, he was hitting the ball in the air far too often, and with little authority. Of 255 players who had more than 200 batted balls in 2015, Hamilton had the worst average exit velocity at 82.4 mph. Fly balls result in hits less often than line drives and ground balls, and when the ball is hit that weakly, outfielders have little trouble tracking it down.

For a player with next to no power, Hamilton has also had high strikeout numbers — an 18.0 K%, in fact — and rarely walks, registering a walk rate (5.8 BB%) well below the league average in both of his full seasons.

After being one of the least productive hitters in baseball last year, the 25-year-old entered what could very well prove to be a make-or-break season in 2016. How has he done so far?

He has been much more successful keeping the ball out of the air, registering a ground-ball rate of 54.5 percent, way up from the 42.6 percent he had last season. Naturally, his fly-ball rate has taken a significant decrease as well, currently sitting at 21.8 percent after posting rates above 37 percent in his first two seasons.

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Unfortunately, that hasn’t led to much more overall success, as Hamilton is hitting only .208. His .250 batting average on balls in play is close to what is was last year (.264), but is down from his overall career mark of .287. That indicates he might be subject to a bit of bad luck, but a deeper look shows he hasn’t been tremendously unlucky. Though he is hitting the ball on the ground more often, he isn’t hitting the ball any harder, with his 19.7 hard-contact percentage just barely up from last year (19.4 percent) and his 83.5 mph average exit velocity still among the worst in baseball.

Bunting has also continued to be a struggle for Hamilton. Once again, he spent ample time working on that aspect of his game over the offseason and stated that he wanted to do it more often, but he has attempted a bunt only eight times, picking up a lone hit.

From a plate discipline standpoint, Hamilton has also shown slight improvement in some areas. He’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone than ever before, chasing on just 17.4 percent of pitches he sees outside of the zone, a vast improvement from the 27.6 O-Swing% he had last year. He’s also whiffing on just four percent of his swings.

One would think both of those things would mean an increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts. That has (barely) been the case with walks, as he currently sits at a 7.2 BB%. Early on in the season, Hamilton looked to have a renewed approach at the plate, drawing five free passes in his first nine games, including a two-walk game on April 14. Since that day, however, he has just one base on balls. On the flip side, a better eye and contact rate hasn’t prevented him from going down on strikes often, as his strikeout rate has climbed to 18.8 percent this year after he had cut it down to 16.5 percent last season.

Though the results haven’t been there through the first month of the season, there are some signs that Hamilton is getting better at the plate. He’s swinging at fewer bad pitches and is hitting the ball on the ground more, which could lead to more success over time. If he can start hitting the ball with more authority, the hits should start falling with more regularity. If that doesn’t happen, it’s going to be even more vital for him to draw more walks and improve his bunting.

*All stats are as of May 9

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