This could be a make-or-break season for Billy Hamilton if he wants to remain an everyday player.
Since 2014, the Cincinnati Reds’ center field job has belonged to the speedster, who has developed into one of the best defensive players in baseball at his position. Struggles at the plate have held him back, however, with a career slash line of .242/.287/.330. If the team’s former No. 1 prospect doesn’t produce at the plate in 2016 — or make strides in the right direction, at least — he may lose that starting spot.
Despite Hamilton’s offensive shortcomings, his job has stayed safe to this point because of his defensive abilities and a lack of competition. There’s little doubt he can still flash the leather in the middle of the Reds’ outfield, but the second part of that equation has changed. Last year, the Reds’ backup center fielders were Skip Schumaker, Jason Bourgeois and Brennan Boesch. The year before, it was Schumaker, Chris Heisey, Roger Bernadina and Kristopher Negron. This year, the Reds have some options if Hamilton falters.
The most immediate threat to take some playing time in center field may be Jose Peraza. The 21-year-old has a similar skill set to Hamilton’s, possessing elite speed and little power. He has better offensive tools than Hamilton, however, with a high minor-league average (.302) and a very low strikeout rate (10.4 K%). Of course, Peraza is not a natural center fielder, having played a grand total of 18 games there in his professional career. But with Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart still occupying second base and shortstop, respectively, the outfield may be the best place for Peraza to get playing time, especially if Hamilton struggles to get on base once again.
Hamilton could potentially feel the heat from the likes of Jake Cave, Tyler Holt, Yorman Rodriguez or Scott Schebler, as well.
Cave, a Rule 5 selection from the Yankees, will have to stay on the 25-man roster the entire season or be returned to New York’s organization, meaning he already has decent odds of making the team. Since missing most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons, he’s risen quickly through the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A Scranton for seven games at the end of last year. The 23-year-old isn’t elite in one particular area, instead doing a bit of everything well. Cave is particularly noted for his all-out style of play, along with respectable on-base skills (.285/.346/.391) and base-stealing ability (47 stolen bases, 15.6 per season).
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Reds fans got a brief look at Holt toward the end of 2015 after he was claimed off of waivers from the Cleveland Indians. The soon-to-be 27-year-old hasn’t produced in brief stints in the majors (36 games), though his minor-league numbers through six seasons are intriguing. While he has next to no power, he’s not afraid to draw a walk (.367 OBP, 12.1 BB%), has good speed (152 steals) and plays above-average outfield defense. Clearly, he’ll need to translate that success to the big leagues in order to stick, but there’s plenty to like with Holt.
Rodriguez and Schebler are more likely to find their chances in the corner outfield spots. However, if they produce and force their way into the lineup over Hamilton, both have experience manning center field as well (Rodriguez — 291 games — more so than Schebler — 51 games).
Hamilton isn’t any danger of losing his job during spring. Barring a setback with his surgically repaired right shoulder or something else unforeseen, he’ll bat leadoff and play center field when the Reds take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Opening Day. And the potential is still there. If Hamilton can raise his on-base percentage to even .300, he’ll be a threat to steal 100 bases and score as many runs. But in his third full year, he needs to improve or the Reds will have to begin considering other options, and having some direct competition for playing time on the team this year won’t hurt.