The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets have been in trade discussions about right fielder Jay Bruce, according to a number of reports.
Reds willing to trade Jay Bruce to the Mets for Zack Wheeler now. Worth watching over the next 20 hours.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2015
Sources: #Mets trying to land #Reds’ Bruce. Also exploring other options. Wheeler most likely would go to CIN and maybe one other piece.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
The main piece that would be coming back to the Reds in the deal would be pitcher Zack Wheeler. Wheeler had Tommy John surgery in March to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and the flexor pronator tendon. The recovery time is expected to be 14 months, meaning he wouldn’t be ready until June 2016.
While coming through the Mets farm system, Wheeler was consistently ranked a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, ranking as high as No. 5 at one point (by Baseball Prospectus in 2013).
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Wheeler has made 49 big league starts, going 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP, striking out 8.5 hitters per nine innings and walking 3.9. The talent is there—Wheeler sports a fastball that can reach the upper-90s and has a great curveball—but it’s a risky move to take on a pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery, especially when you’re giving up a player as talented as Bruce.
Sure, there are a number of pitchers who have had the surgery and come back to be the same pitcher they were before (e.g. Jose Fernandez), but it’s no guarantee. Look no further than Reds’ recent acquisition John Lamb for evidence of that. Lamb was a top 15 prospect, had the surgery in 2011, and wasn’t the same when he came back. It took him years of reinventing himself to become a quality pitcher again.
The move would also seriously hinder the Reds’ 2016 offense, as it’s unlikely the team would be able to replace Bruce’s production in their lineup. And if they’re going to trade Bruce, there’s really no reason to hang on to Todd Frazier. Both have contracts that expire in 2017 and Frazier (29) is actually older than Bruce (28).
As of this morning, the Reds and Mets are still in talks, and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that many in baseball believe that a deal will be struck.
Sources: #Mets worked into night on trade for #Reds’ Bruce. Expectation among many in industry is that deal will happen.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
The deal may not be a certainty, however, as Newsday Sports’ David Lennon reports that the Mets are looking at other outfield options and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman sent out a tweet implying that the Reds may not be comfortable acquiring Wheeler.
Heard #Mets may not be issue with Bruce, #Reds have to be comfortable with Wheeler (player coming back from TJ) as main piece
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 31, 2015
Update: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the talks between may be losing steam, as the Reds are having reservations about the deal.
Hearing the Jay Bruce talks may have lost momentum. #Reds having second thoughts about #Mets trade package.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 31, 2015
Update No. 2: The deal is seeming less and less likely to happen, as Rosenthal is now reporting that Reds general manager Walt Jocketty may not want to part with his right fielder.
Rival exec: “I don’t think Walt (Jocketty) wants to trade (Jay) Bruce.”
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Update No. 3: While it could be nothing, it’s worth noting that Bruce is not in the Reds lineup for tonight’s game against the Pirates, per Rosenthal.
Jay Bruce is not in the #Reds’ lineup.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Update No. 4: Bryan Price says Bruce is simply getting a scheduled day off.
Price says it was scheduled day off for Bruce. Non-trade related. #reds
— John Fay (@johnfayman) July 31, 2015
Update No. 5: Per Bruce Levine, the Mets have acquired Yoenis Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers, meaning Bruce is likely staying put.
Source says Cespedes has been dealt to the Mets .
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) July 31, 2015
We’ll keep updating this post with more on the Reds/Mets talks as more information becomes available.