SI Selects Reds as NL Central Favorites

As the word got out that Sports Illustrated named the Reds as their choice to win the National League Central division, I waited in anticipation for my hard copy to arrive. Already knowing this, you might think the waiting was a bit anti-climatic. Yes and no.

When I gazed upon the cover and saw the mug of one Albert Pujols, I was overtaken with negative emotions. I know he’s in Los Angeles now, but it cannot take away from my disdain.

On to the important stuff…

Here’s how SI sees the division shaking out for 2012.

1. Reds: 89-73
2. Cards: 87-75
3. Brewers: 84-78
4. Pirates: 70-92
5. Cubs: 66-96
6. Astros: 57-105

In reading the divisional preview, reading the Reds “team page” and scanning a few others, a few thoughts popped into my head.

Matt Gange authored the divisional preview. He states the NL Central could be the worst in baseball. He notes two reasons why this is the case.

The first is that in 2011, the Astros (106), Cubs (91), Pirates (90) and Reds (83) combined for a total of 370 losses. That total was a mere 12 less loses than the entire NL East. Of course, if you look at the AL East, the team that was the best in the NL for 2011, the Phillies, posted a 102-60 record. Add that the worst team in that division, the Marlins, owned a 72-90 record, same as the Pirates who finish 4th in the NL Central.

The second reason is due to the departures of Pujols and Prince Fielder. His belief is that this now leaves the division without a team that anyone can say is the “favorite” or “front-runner”.

Thought #1 cannot be argued. Records are what they are. I do take exception with the second point. So, if Pujols had stayed in St. Louis and Fielder had stayed in Milwaukee, I believe you still do not have a clear-cut selection. Some would say the Cards while other would say the Brewers. If AP stays, no Carlos Beltran. If Prince stays, no Aramis Ramirez. Neither team would likely have the money to offer the deals extended to Beltran and Ramirez.

Also, since when does having an obvious top dog make your division stronger? Not always. Look at the AL Central. It’s clearly the Detroit Tigers and everyone else. Looking at the other four teams in that division, can you honestly point to one team and say they can contend with the Tigers? I can’t. SI’s projected second place team, the Royals, are projected to be 82-80. The second place team for the NL Central is the Cards at 87-75. That’s not worse. That’s better. Well, simple math tells me such. Three teams over .500 makes it the worst, I guess.

I suppose the theory could be based on the teams beating each other dilutes the division. Not if there is talent.

If you have a copy of this, you, at first, may have been shocked to see a picture of Reds prospect Billy Hamilton on the Reds page. On each team’s page is a “box” called “Modest Proposal” in which Joe Sheehan provides the thought.

How are these two intertwined? Sheehan is of the belief that the Reds should accelerate Hamilton’s development. If so, the Reds would have a legitimate leadoff hitter.

We’ve all heard and read the knocks on Hamilton: a lot of strikeouts and errors. Strikeouts and leadoff? That’s a subject we are all too familiar with, isn’t it? Despite the 133 whiffs along with the slow start Hamilton suffered last season in Dayton, he still managed a .278 batting average and .340 OBP.  While no one will ever accuse Hamilton of being a power hitter (he hit 3 in 2011), he still gets on base.  He produced 153 hits and induced 52 walks. Of those 205 times on base, he stole a base 103 times in 123 attempts.

If Hamilton gets on base, you know what’s coming and you still rarely get him out.

But what of his defensive position? For 2012, it’s unlikely we see Hamilton in a Reds uniform, but what about going forward? Zack Cozart is penciled in and is having a fantastic spring. Position switch? Some view Hamilton as a second baseman due to his error totals. Only time will tell on that.

Another point here is the apparent lack of chatter about Mike Leake. Have people forgotten he led the Reds in wins, strikeouts and ERA last season? Sure, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey missed time and Bronson Arroyo stumbled, but you have to give the guy a little credit…and ink. The only blurb about Leake is a reference to his FIP of 4.24, 73rd among the 94 “qualifiers”.

With most previews focusing on the multiple moves and obvious upgrades the Reds made during the winter, the continuing maturation of Leake is completely lost on most. Here’s a guy that has spent a grand total of five days as a minor leaguer (or some some may say, Johnny Bench number of days).

He won’t blow you away with his velocity, but the placement of his pitches may be the best on the staff. His movement isn’t too shabby either.

To say he’s being overlooked and underestimated is an understatement.

And what Reds preview would be complete without a take on Aroldis Chapman. Here’s a take from a rival scout.

"“I think he’s become enamored with how fast he throws. He’s just one pitch away – a decent changeup – from being great starting pitcher.”"

As we are all now aware, Chapman’s chances of starting the season on the 25-man took a boost when it was announced that Ryan Madson would not be pitching today as originally scheduled.

Speaking of Madson, he’s been working with Chapman on a changeup. Who better to help him.

When it comes to the playoffs, SI has the Reds dropping their series to the San Francisco Giants. Do Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera make that big a difference? After all, the Giants were last in the NL in runs scored last season with 570, or an average of 3.52 per game. By contrast, the Reds scored 735 runs for an average of 4.54, a full run more per game.

And the Giants will reach the World Series only to lose to the…Los Angeles Angels.

All of this and I still can’t get away from Pujols.

Crap!

——————————

Like what you’re reading? Stay up-to-date on all things Reds by following Blog Red Machine on Twitter (@blogredmachine). Also, please take a minute and “Like” our page on Facebook!