The Center of Attention

Drew Stubbs has occupied a lot of my musings over the past few weeks.  What did he think of last season?  What did he do this season to improve himself?  Can he be the player the Reds need?  And finally can Drew fulfill his potential?

Robert Andrew Stubbs was the 8th pick in the 2006 amateur draft in MLB, so eager was he to get started in his professional baseball career after a successful stint playing both for the Texas Longhorns and for TeamUSA in the World University Baseball Championships in 2004, Stubbs signed his contract just 8 days later.  He immediately reported to the Billings Mustangs and in rookie ball posted a .252 batting average scoring 39 runs in 56 games.

In 2007, he wowed the crowds in Dayton raising his average to .270 and scoring 93 runs in 129 games.  His 15 outfield assists added to his pedigree as a defensive force and he stole 23 bases in 38 attempts showing a flash of speed but a recklessness on the basepaths as well.

2008 was spent nomadically climbing from advanced A ball where he hit .261 and scored 49 runs in 86 games.  His numbers improved at AA Chattanooga where he maintained a .315 batting average and scored 12 runs in 26 games.  He ended his season with a brief stint in Louisville where he finished with a .293 batting average scoring 14 runs in just 19 games.

Drew started 2009 in Louisville and it was with the AAA Bats that he found his base-stealing groove swiping 46 bases on just 54 attempts.  He then recieved the call to the Reds and made his MLB debut on August 19th, 2009 at 24 years of age.  He was immediately thrust into the starting lineup and started in 40 of the 42 games he appeared in over the final month and a half of the season where he replaced Willie Taveras.  He batting leadoff and hit for a .267 average gathering up just enough at bats to make 2009 qualify as his rookie season, but not enough to do much else.

Since 2009 Drew has seen his batting average fall each year, while counter intuitively his runs scored have increased each season.  Drew finished with 91 runs scored in 2010 and 92 in 2011 but it is worth noting he had 98 more plate appearances in 2011.  One number has remained remarkably consistent and that is his on base percentage.  He peaked in 2010 with an OBP of .328 and his low was last season at .321 there is just not a lot of play in the numbers.  It is interesting to note that against teams with a record above .500 he played markedly better in 2011 than against teams that have a losing record.  A margin is one thing but when it is 45 points that makes me wonder about his focus on a day to day basis.  Against St. Louis, Drew posted an impressive .315 batting average while against Pittsburgh and Houston it was .204 and .218 respectively.

Another number that jumped out at me was how he fared when the count was no balls and two strikes.  I expected it would be bad but I was shocked.  He had just a single hit in 48 at bats.  A single hit.  That figures out to be a .021 batting average.  I wondered how Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto fared in similar situations and Bruce finished with a modest .102 batting average, Brandon Phillips had an impressive .206 batting average,while Joey Votto sported a decent .163 average.  This is a tough situation for any batter to face because you give the pitcher total control over the at bat, but .021 is a frightening number.

So where does Drew go from here?  I found his comments uplifting.  Stubbs told  John Fay in an interview last week:  “I think whenever you go through a tough year as a competitor, as an athlete, you want to get out and get yourself back on the right track. It’s a long wait sometimes. You spend a few months thinking about what you’ve been through.”  Drew needs to make every at bat count.  The easiest target to attack is the strikeout totals but if the work this off season pays off he could be one more piece in a jigsaw puzzle of potential that could lead Cincinnati into the playoffs and beyond.

I will leave you with 2 quotes.  The first from Walt Disney.  He once said, “You may not realize it when it happens, but a kick in the teeth may be the best thing in the world for you.”  205 strikeouts probably qualifies on this count.  Former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli probably echoed Brook Jacoby’s advice saying “There is no education like adversity.”   In the grand scheme of things 205 strikeouts doesn’t really count as adversity but tell that to Mr. Stubbs.  Out of the fires of this media furnace the 2012 Reds may have forged a team that will stand the test of this time.  I am a firm believer that Drew Stubbs will be part of the 2012 solution.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnHeitz