Cincinnati Reds 2017 Most Important Player – Billy Hamilton

Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/Cincinnati Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORK
Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/Cincinnati Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORK

For the Cincinnati Reds to be competitive in the ultra-tough National League Central Billy Hamilton must have a career year.

Cincinnati Reds’ center fielder Billy Hamilton is the best defensive center fielder in the National League.  He is the best center fielder in the entire history of the Reds’ franchise.  His defense won’t mean a thing, though, if he can’t bat effectively enough to stay in the line-up.

You don’t need to look any further than last season to see the impact that Hamilton’s batting has on the rest of the team.  Hamilton had a .369 OBP the second half of the season and the Reds were a .500 team.  His OBP for the first half was .283 and they were a last place team.

Everything about Hamilton’s offense is predicated on his OBP.  In the first half last season Hamilton stole 22 bases, but he stole 36 in the second half.  He did this while playing 29 more games in the first half.

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On a per game basis, Hamilton was stealing 4 bases every fives games.  To put that into perspective, he would have had 130 steals if he could keep that up and play 162 games.  That would tie the modern era record set by Rickey Henderson during his first stint with the Oakland Athletics in 1982.

Besides getting on base for the Cincinnati Reds, Billy Hamilton needs to stay healthy all season long.

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For the Reds to be competitive Hamilton needs to be an on base threat and play in 140 or more games.  He has only played in that many games once in his professional career.  He played in 152 in 2014, his first year as a starter.

What has been most impressive the past two seasons is Hamilton’s ability to steal the same number of bases with fewer caught stealings compared to 2014.  Every year he success rate has gotten better.

In his four years as a starter, Hamilton has stolen 56, 57, and 58 steals.  In those same three seasons he has been caught 23, 8, and 8 times.  That means that he is likely to steal 59 bases and be caught 8 times in 2017.

What may end up being the deciding factor is Hamilton’s walk rate.  He walked 36 times in 2016, which was a career high.  If he can continue to work walks while he is working longer into counts, Hamilton could be an all-world caliber player.

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That is what the Reds need to be competitive in 2017.  They need their Gold Glove level center fielder to get on base and steal to be competitive.  If not, the Reds may end up moving Hamilton in the off-season as they flirted with this past off-season.