Will Barry Larkin Get His Call?

Next Monday is the day. It should be the day in which Barry Larkin, beloved by many a Reds fan, gets the call announcing he will become a baseball immortal. To Reds fans, he already is. Check Twitter. Some Reds fans still collect his baseball cards. Some still wear the #11 jersey with “LARKIN” across the back (as you might see in pics). Some use a form of Larkin’s name as an homage. There is almost always some reference to Larkin and his days in the Queen City.

In December of 2010, I published a post on why I felt Larkin should be in. I did so using citing one reason: comparing him statistically to the other shortstops that were elected by the BBWAA and not those voted in by the Veteran’s Committee. It seems that I’m not the only one that at least considered this path.

I’ll review that post for a moment.

Of the 22 shortstops that are enshrined, only 10 were voted in via the writers ballot: Luis Aparicio, Luke Appling, Ernie Banks, Lou Boudreau, Joe Cronin, Rabbit Maranville, Cal Ripken, Jr., Ozzie Smith, Honus Wagner and Robin Yount. Some of you may be saying that not all were not strictly shortstops and you would be correct. Banks played more games as a first baseman. Yount also played in the outfield. Ripken eventually moved to third base.

As I previously stated, I did a comparative look at the offensive numbers as you see in the table below.

Here’s a point I made in that post.

"But in judging Larkin’s offensive numbers compared to the averages of the other ten Hall of Fame shortstops, he’s there.Larkin favorably compares in all the average categories. He’s also ahead of the curve in home runs and steals."

These are facts and they cannot be ignored. Numbers do speak loudly. In the case I presented then, and I present again now, they not only speak, they yell of enshrinement.

I know there will be some that disagree with Larkin going in. I have something else for you to check out if you lean that direction.

There are other circumstances that arise each and every year on how and/or why a particular player may be elected into the Hall. There is so much more than merely “the numbers”. I received an interesting take on all of this Hall of Fame election stuff just today.

In getting to Larkin’s eventual enshrinement, Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times goes even more in depth on how Larkin will get that call. He delves even deeper and he really doesn’t look that much into stats, if at all.

One thing where he really pinpoints Larkin’s possible election concerns that of who is not on the ballot compared to last year.

"For 2012, the issue isn’t who’s arriving on the ballot, but who is leaving. Blyleven’s election means that Jack Morris is the sole starting pitcher on the ballot likely to top five percent (no, Brad Radke won’t get any serious support). This should help Morris as there’s less direct competition to him.Similarly, Roberto Alomar’s departure should help Barry Larkin. They played different positions, but were both middle infielders with good all-around games. When I say comparable, I’m not trying to be too fine. It’s all about the image a player occupies in the collective consciousness of the electorate. Alomar and Larkin both played up-the-middle defensive positions and had well-rounded games."

That’s the only real “look” where Jaffe mentions any stats…”well-rounded games”. If one point could be argued about stats, it would be that if a player didn’t have the numbers, he would not have made the cut in order to stay on the ballot. You can add the case of All-Star Games, Gold Gloves, MVP, etc, but the selection process of those have changed over the years. They aren’t as comparable when looking back at the likes of Wagner and Maranville with all the other “secondary” awards presented these days.

Let’s not forget that Larkin is the charter member of the 30-30 club for shortstops.

A couple of more thoughts.

There is an inordinate amount of speculation that Larkin may be the only player elected from this year’s voting class. Jaffe “confirms” such a thought if you check out his whole article. It’s a suggested read and well worth your time.

If Jaffe’s and my hunches are correct, as a fan of the Reds, I absolutely love this. But maybe more, as a fan of baseball, I not only love Larkin being elected, but I really love that Ron Santo is finally getting his due as well as he was elected by the Veterans Committee.

That’s a pretty strong left side of the infield.

Update: I received another email. The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has recommended that Larkin as well as Jeff Bagwell be enshrined. The BBA has been pretty accurate in the past, so this looks good for Larkin. Here’s the press release:

BBA RECOMMENDS LARKIN, BAGWELL FOR HALL OF FAME

In the annual polling of members of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, former Cincinnati Reds shortstop Barry Larkin and former Houston Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell were recommended for induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame. This is the third year the organization has conducted this survey of the membership.

Larkin, a 12-time All-Star who fashioned an .815 OPS over 19 seasons, received the largest percentage of votes, being named on 84.25% of the 148 ballots cast. This is the highest percentage garnered by any player in the three years of BBA voting.

Bagwell, who hit 449 HR and had a .948 OPS in his 15 seasons in Houston, was selected on 115 ballots for a 78.77% rate. As with the official voting done by the Baseball Writers of America, a player must be named on 75% of the ballots to be recommended by the alliance.

Last year, the BBA recommended second baseman Roberto Alomar and pitcher Bert Blyleven, both of whom were inducted into Cooperstown during the summer. In 2010, no player reached the 75% mark in BBA balloting, the year that outfielder Andre Dawson was selected for the Hall by the baseball writers.

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance’s vote has no impact on the official vote taken by the Baseball Writers of America. However, the BBA has often been a predictor of major awards granted by the writers.

The final voting results are as follows:

Barry Larkin 84.25%
Jeff Bagwell 78.77%

Edgar Martinez 60.27%
Tim Raines 57.53%
Alan Trammell 44.52%
Mark McGwire 41.10%
Larry Walker 35.62%
Lee Smith 33.56%
Jack Morris 32.19%
Don Mattingly 29.45%
Rafael Palmerio 28.77%
Fred McGriff 28.08%
Dale Murphy 16.44%
Bernie Williams 11.64%
Juan Gonzalez 6.16%
Javy Lopez 2.74%
Brad Radke 2.05%
Tim Salmon 1.37%
Bill Mueller 0.68%
Phil Nevin 0.68%
Ruben Sierra 0.68%
Tony Womack 0.68%
Jeromy Burnitz 0.00%
Vinny Castilla 0.00%
Brian Jordan 0.00%
Terry Mulholland 0.00%
Eric Young 0.00%

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was established in the fall of 2009 for the purpose of fostering collaboration and communication among bloggers from across baseball. The BBA has quickly grown to its current membership of 347 blogs, including some of the most prominent blogs on the Internet, spanning all major league teams and various other general aspects of the game.

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