What are the chances the Reds receive the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft?

The Cincinnati Reds horrendous 2022 season has come to an end. While this year's team did not set the franchise mark for futility, they came pretty darn close.

The Reds finished the year with an embarrassing 15-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs, and for the second time in franchise history, lost at least 100 games. It was a painful ending to a lost season.

But, like the 18 other ball clubs that missed the postseason, Cincinnati can now turn their attention to the future and how to improve the organization moving forward. One such way is through the draft, and the 2023 MLB Draft has a new wrinkle.

What are the chances the Reds receive the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft?

For the first time in Major League Baseball history, there will be a lottery to determine the order of the first six picks in the draft. This addition was part of the collective bargaining agreement that was negotiated this past spring.

The idea was meant to keep clubs from tanking, knowing that the first pick in the MLB Draft would not necessarily belong to the team with the worst record in baseball. The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Oakland A's are proof that the incentive to win didn't really work.

The three teams with the worst records this season each receive a 16.5% chance to snag the No. 1 overall pick. That means the Pirates, A's, and the Washington Nationals have the best odds of drafting first.

Despite the fact that the Pirates beat the Reds in head-to-head competition this season, ties are broken based on the previous year's win-loss record. That's why Cincinnati has the fourth-best odds of securing the first overall pick despite having an identical record as Pittsburgh.

The Cincinnati Reds have a 13.25% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. The draft lottery is expected to take place at the Winter Meetings this December in San Diego.