Ranking the Reds 4 best replacements for injured starter Nick Lodolo
The Cincinnati Reds received some unfortunate news on Sunday. Starter Nick Lodolo was placed on the 15-day IL, and according to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Charlie Goldsmith, the left-hander will miss at least four weeks with a calf injury.
With Lodolo's placement on the Injured List, the Reds rotation looks something like this - Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Luke Weaver, Ben Lively, and TBD. That's assuming that Lively is part of the rotation after working three innings last Wednesday against the New York Mets.
It's safe to say that the Reds will need to fill Nick Lodolo's spot in the rotation, but who's the most likely pitcher to get the call? Let's rank the four options to replace Lodolo in the rotation.
4. Derek Law could fill Nick Lodolo's spot in the Reds starting rotation.
It's worked so far, right? All kidding aside, the Cincinnati Reds have run out Derek Law twice in less than week as the team's opener. Taking a page out of the Tampa Bay Rays' playbook isn't the worst idea in the world, but it's certainly not ideal.
Law has been David Bell's most versatile piece in the bullpen, going 2-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 19 strikeouts in just over 20 innings of work. While using Law in this manner wouldn't necessarily eliminate the potential of the right-hander entering in games outside of the one he starts, it would definitely limit his usage and effectiveness.
Using Derek Law as an opener shouldn't be off the table for the upcoming week, but covering at least four weeks-worth of starts seems unsustainable for a bullpen that already been taxed early this season. The only team to have logged more innings in relief this season are the aforementioned Rays.
The Cincinnati Reds called up three relievers on Sunday, a sign that Bell's bullpen is absolutely exhausted. Rather than push the envelope, Cincinnati needs to look elsewhere in order to offset the loss of Nick Lodolo. Using Law as the opener is an option, but only for one start at the most.
3. Kevin Herget could fill Nick Lodolo's spot in the Reds starting rotation.
Kevin Herget is name that most Reds fans are unfamiliar with, and was just recalled on Sunday after being optioned back to Triple-A on Saturday in order to make room for Levi Stoudt. But, after news of Nick Lodolo and Casey Legumina hitting the IL, the Reds recalled Herget to help the pitching staff after seven relievers were used on Saturday.
In addition to Herget being recalled, Stoudt was optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday. This all but signifies that Stoudt will not be the guy replacing Lodolo in the rotation. Unless an injury occurs, a pitcher much spend 15 days back in the minor leagues before being recalled. That means it'll be the end of the month before Stoudt can return to the big leagues.
Herget was in the mix to be part of the Cincinnati Reds rotation this spring, but was really more of a fringe candidate. That final spot in the rotation was more than likely going to Connor Overton, Luis Cessa, and Brandon Williamson.
Kevin Herget had been getting work down at Triple-A as a starter. He was 0-1 in three starts with a 7.36 ERA and 2.182 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, and you'd really have to wonder if you're going to get more than three innings out of Herget.
Seeing as how Herget starting would basically turn into a bullpen game, you have to assume that this is less than ideal. As was mentioned with Derek Law, this could be an option for the Reds for a start or two. But if Nick Lodolo is out for a minimum of four weeks (plus a rehab assignment), you have to assume the Reds will be looking to fill at least six or seven starts in his stead.
2. Brandon Williamson could fill Nick Lodolo's spot in the Reds starting rotation.
Now we're getting somewhere. Brandon Williamson is basically a clone of Nick Lodolo in terms of stature. Williamson, just like Lodolo, is a tall and lanky left-handed pitcher who relies heavily on his breaking ball in order to get outs.
The problem, however, for Williamson has been his lack of effectiveness. Quite frankly, the southpaw has been rather ineffective since coming to the Reds organization in the trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners.
During his 2021 season, which was spent at the High-A and Double-A levels of the Seattle organization, Williamson put up terrific numbers. The left-hander recorded 153 punch outs in less than 100 innings pitched. His strikeout-rate was sitting at 37.4-percent and his walk-rate was just 8.1-percent.
Since joining the Reds prior to last season, Williamson's number have changed dramatically. The Texas Christian University alum owns a 20.9-percent strikeout-rate and 13.5-percent walk-rate along with a 5.02 FIP according to FanGraphs.
Brandon Williamson's last two outings at Triple-A Louisville showed improvement. Williamson is on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would be rather simple. At some point, the Reds need to see what they have in Williamson. With an end date in sight in terms of Nick Lodolo's IL stint, perhaps the time is now for his former TCU teammate.
1. Andrew Abbott could fill Nick Lodolo's spot in the Reds starting rotation.
Alright, if the Cincinnati Reds are tired of just dancing around the obvious, the front office could very simply just give Andrew Abbott his shot in the big leagues. No pitching in the entire organization has pitched better than Abbott to begin the season, and that includes anyone on the major league roster.
There are drawbacks, as Abbott has just a handful of starts at the Triple-A level. Every GM is nervous to "rush" any prospect to the big leagues before they're ready, but being that Abbott spent all four years at the University of Virginia, he has a bit more seasoning than other prospects.
Abbott has been utterly dominant in the minor leagues this season. The left-hander, according to FanGraphs, has a 2.59 FIP and a 46.8-percent strikout-rate in seven starts this season.
Abbott has been roughed up a bit more since arriving at Triple-A Louisville. The southpaw enjoyed a 1.15 ERA and 36 strikeouts through 15.2 innings pitched with the Chattanooga Lookouts. After joining the Louisville Bats at the end of April, Abbott has a 4.50 ERA and 29 punch outs in 20 innings of work.
Andrew Abbott has also allowed five round trippers at Triple-A after seeing nothing leave the park in Double-A this season. Those numbers should give you some insight as to why the Cincinnati Reds brass is a bit hesitant to call Abbott up to the big leagues so quickly.
The Reds could always surprise the fanbase and make a trade, sign a veteran free agent, or make a waiver claim. But with the pitching depth in the Cincinnati farm system, one would imagine Nick Lodolo's replacement will come from within the organization.