What are the Reds playoff chances with 10 games remaining?

The Cincinnati Reds are inexplicably still in the NL Wild Card race.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Will Benson
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Will Benson / Dylan Buell/GettyImages

For all the negative nellies out there who thought the Cincinnati Reds would fold like a cheap tent once the calendar flipped to September, I've got news for you - they're still alive.

The Reds are in four-team race for two spots. The Philadelphia Phillies have put some distance between themselves and rest of the NL Wild Card contenders, but the Reds are fighting with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, and Miami Marlins for the remaining two spots.

Cincinnati received a much-needed performance from rookie hurler Connor Phillips on Monday night, and with only 10 games left in the 2023 season, the Reds are sitting at 79-73. What are the Cincinnati Reds playoff chances with less than two weeks remaining?

What are the Reds playoff chances with 10 games to go?

Depending on who you ask, the Cincinnati Reds are either in good position to secure one of the final two spots in the NL Wild Card, or in very good shape to snag a spot in the playoffs.

According to FanGraphs, the Reds have a 43.2-percent chance to make the postseason with 10 games to play. That's the good news. The bad news, however, is that the outlet gives the Chicago Cubs a 43.8-percent chance to make the playoffs and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 55.5-percent.

Flip over to Baseball Reference, and you'll see that Cincinnati is given a 49.7-percent chance to make the NL Wild Card. This is a 16.4-percent jump from just a day ago. The aforementioned Cubs and D-backs are currently receiving more than 50-percent chance to make the postseason, but the Miami Marlins have dipped to 34.3-percent.

The Cincinnati Reds will send Fernando Cruz to the hill tonight as the opener against the Minnesota Twins. Expect to see several innings out of Ben Lively as well. The Cubs began a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, while the New York Mets play host to the Marlins, and Arizona has a visit from the San Francisco Giants.