PECOTA projects Reds to be better than just 2 National League teams in 2023

Expectations are low for the Cincinnati Reds heading into 2023. An optimistic view of that would be that there's nowhere to go but up.

Baseball Prospectus released their annual PECOTA projection for the 2023 season. Unsurprisingly, the Reds are projected to win a little less than 67 games and finish dead-last in the National League Central Division.

However, on the bright side, the Redlegs are projected to finish above both the Washington Nationals (61.3 wins) and the Colorado Rockies (64.5 wins).

PECOTA projects the Reds to win fewer than 67 games in 2023.

In 2022, the Cincinnati Reds won just 62 games. So at least 66 wins is better. However, finishing with a record of 66-96 is not going to excite the fanbase. The Reds, according to PECOTA, have just a 0.3% chance of making the postseason.

Atop the NL Central Division, surprisingly, is not the St. Louis Cardinals but the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is projected to win the division with a record of 88-74 whlie the Cards finish second at 86-76. The Chicago Cubs are projected to finish in third-place with a record of 77-85, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are predicted to finish with a mark of 72-90.

The New York Yankees lead the way with a projected win total of 98-64. On the National League side of things, the model still favors the Los Angeles Dodgers despite the fact that San Diego went all-in during the offseason. The Dodgers are projected to finish three wins ahead of the Friars.

Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson spoke to the media on Tuesday and seemed to embrace the underdog role that his team will face this season. Jonathan India took to social media recently and used some criticism to his advantage as well.

Obviously the Reds have to find a way to use that chip on their shoulder to help fuel their fire during the upcoming season. Last February, PECOTA projected the Reds to go 81-81, of course, that was before the fire sale that saw Sonny Gray, Jessie Winker, and Eugenio Suarez traded prior to the 2022 season.