1 over-hyped Reds prospect at each minor league level who'll disappoint in 2023

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For as excited as Reds fans are about the rising group of prospects poised to help the team return to the postseason in the not-too-distant future, not every one of them is going to pan out.

For every Hunter Greene, there's a Nick Howard. For every Jonathan India, there's a Brandon Larson. High draft position, tremendous upside, and the most glowing scouting report doesn't always yield success in the big leagues.

The Cincinnati Reds have a ton of top prospects they're hoping to see succeed in 2023, but these four over-hyped prospects may not live up to their lofty billing this season.

Reds prospects: Brandon Williamson could disappoint at Triple-A Louisville

There is certainly a contingent of Cincinnati Reds fans who won't want to hear this, but Brandon Williamson may not be the player that everyone was hoping he was after swinging a trade for the left-handed prospect last spring.

Williamson was part of the deal that saw Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker traded to the Seattle Mariners. While Williamson will be given plenty of opportunities to find success on the rebuilding Reds, his showing at Triple-A last season doesn't offer a ton of promise heading into 2023.

The southpaw appeared in 13 games with the Louisville Bats over the second-half of the 2022 season. But Williamson posted a 4.07 ERA and 4.90 FIP according to FanGraphs. Williamson's xFIP was a troubling 6.29.

Williamson was given an chance to land a spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation during spring training. The 25-year-old spoiled a golden opportunity, as Connor Overton struggled and Luke Weaver hit the IL with the forearm injury.

Brandon Williamson will receive some time in Triple-A to get things right, and as the season moves along, he'll likely make his major league debut. But at this time, right-hander Levi Stoudt might have a better opportunity to secure a spot in the Cincinnati rotation.

Reds prospects: Rece Hinds could disappoint at Double-A Chattanooga

When it comes to disappointing Reds prospects, few rank higher on the list than Rece Hinds. The former second-round pick has been plagued by injuries, but more troubling has been Hinds inability to make contact with the baseball.

Now, when Hinds makes contact, the ball could easily leave the ballpark. Hinds slugged .428 last season and registered a wRC+ of 101 according to FanGraphs despite striking out nearly 40-percent of the time.

But Hinds only hit for .233 and his on-base percentage was only .304. If a prospect is going to possess that type of power profile and can't post an OBP above .350 in the minors, then major questions are going to exist about what happens when he makes the leap to The Show.

Hinds has been hampered by injuries, and has also gone through a position change as well. But with only one carrying tool (power), Hinds is not going to make it to the major leagues. Sure, he's got a decent arm as well, but Hinds is beginning to have the profile of Aristides Aquino; and we all know how that worked out.

If Rece Hinds can fix the holes in his swing, become a more patient hitter, and learn how to draw walks, then there's an outside chance that he could be a contributor at the major league level. But that's a long list of ifs. Hinds will need to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or the Cincinnati Reds risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. Right now, that doesn't even seem to be on the table.

Reds prospects: Jay Allen could disappoint at High-A Dayton

Now, as we begin to talk about prospects at High-A Dayton and Low-A Daytona, the margin for error is much greater. So while it's not time to hit the panic button, Reds outfield prospect Jay Allen has fallen short of expectations thus far.

Allen is only 20 years old, so there's plenty of room for improvement. Allen, unlike the aforementioned Rece Hinds, has some tools that will play at the big league level. Allen has an above-average arm and plus-speed. Both those tools will travel.

So the question becomes, can he hit? Furthermore, can he hit for power. To date, the answer has been a resounding no. Allen slashed .225/.347/.324 while playing for both Low-A Daytona and High-A Dayton last season.

Seeing Allen's on-base percentage sitting close to a 35-percent clip despite a batting average below .250 is encouraging. According to FanGraphs, Allen posted a walk-rate of 11.5-percent. That'll play. But not with a wRC+ of 99.

It's a bit concerning that Jay Allen hasn't found that pop in his bat. Allen was a three-sport athlete in high school, so one might assume that with his full focus now on baseball, perhaps he can tap into that potential that made him a first-round draft pick in 2021.

Reds prospects: Malvin Valdez could disappoint at Low-A Daytona

As is the case with Jay Allen, a young prospect like Malvin Valdez is going to receive some grace. At just 19 years old, Valdez has barely played stateside. Not every prospect is Elly De La Cruz, but Valdez will need to show some improve heading into 2023.

Valdez was a Top 30 prospect within the Cincinnati Reds organization as recent as two years ago. According to MLB Pipeline, Vladez is chock full of tools. Valdez received a $1.9-million signing bonus as an International free agent in 2021.

Valdez will be playing alongside fellow 2021 signee Ariel Almonte. The left-handed slugger has succeeded where Valdez has failed. Almote playe 42 games in the Arizona Complex League last season and slashed .286/.390/.493 while Valdez hit just .219/.336/.307.

Valdez profiles more as a centerfielder while Almonte is targeting a role as a corner outfielder. With both prospects looking to impress the Reds brass, it's imperative that Valdez at least stands out on the defensive side of things. The 6-foot-2 outfield prospect has wheels.

Malvin Valdez is not in need of a breakout season, but getting that batting average up and increasing the power numbers will atop his to-do list in 2023. If he can't improve in those areas, it's quite possible that other prospects will leapfrog him moving forward

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