5 Reds players who won't be on the roster by May 1

2. Connor Overton will not be on the Reds roster by May 1st.

I'm sorry. I know that Connor Overton hasn't even started a game yet, but his performance this spring was not very inspiring. The right-hander posted a 15.43 ERA in four games, but did strikeout 10 batters a little less than 12 innings.

The biggest blemish on Overton's Cactus League stat line is the six home runs he surrendered. Couple that with the fact that the 29-year-old allowed back-to-back jacks to teammates Jonathan India and Stuart Fairchild in last week's intra-squad scrimmage, and this does not look very promising.

Overton is not a power-pitcher, he a finesse-pitcher. Last year's rookie has five different pitches in his arsenal, none of which creep much above 90-mph. It is all about location with Overton. If he's hitting his spots, there's certainly a chance that he could remain in the starting rotation. But after a prolonged recovery from a back injury and a subpar spring, color me skeptical.

Connor Overton's time in the starting rotation is also tied to the health of Luke Weaver. Cincinnati inked the veteran to a one-year deal during the offseason, and once he's fully recovered from a forearm injury that kept him off the Opening Day roster, fans should expect to see Weaver back on the mound.

3. Jose Barrero will not be on the Reds roster by May 1st.

This is one where I hope I'm wrong, but a good majority of the Cincinnati faithful see the writing on the wall. Jose Barrero's time in the major leagues has been marred by too many strikeouts. If he can't get that under control, it won't be long before he's back in the minor leagues.

Much like Nick Senzel, there's an argument to be made the Cincinnati Reds really screwed up Barrero's development by calling him up to the big leagues before he was ready and shuffling him around to several different positions. But this is the big leagues, and excuses are going to get you nowhere.

On the defensive side, Barrero is brilliant at shortstop. He can make all the throws, and with the elimination of the defensive shift, Barrero's defense could be invaluable. If the 24-year-old can maintain an on-base percentage above .300, cut down on the strikeouts, and play elite-level defense, the Reds would have something to hold on to.

If the decision is made to option Jose Barreo back to the minors, I don't think that automatically means that Cincinnati will call up Elly De La Cruz or Matt McLain. With De La Cruz beginning the year on the IL, May 1st seems much too early for the Cincinnati Reds top prospect to make his debut.

The Reds have a veteran shortstop in Kevin Newman and are looking to give Senzel more reps on the infield dirt. Optioning Jose Barrero to the minor leagues is surely on the table if he's not producing during the first month of the season.

4. Stuart Fairchild will not be on the Reds roster by May 1st.

Seeing as how Stuart Fairchild was optioned to minor-league camp and then recalled on Opening Day, the former second-round pick seems like the most likely outfielder to be optioned before May 1st.

Joey Votto and Nick Senzel will be back soon. When that happens, two position players will need to be optioned or designated for assignment. The aforementioned Jose Barrero and Jason Vosler are both candidates, and if Will Benson doesn't right the ship, his name could be on that shortlist too.

Benson had a rough go of it on Opening Day. Donning the dreaded golden sombrero, Benson struck out four times and looked lost at the plate. For as much heat as Barrero catches, Benson looked even worse during the first game of the season.

Fairchild and Benson have a similar style of play. Both have plenty of power and speed, and both are able to field all three spots on the outfield grass. But Benson's left-handed swing might keep on the roster if it's a coin flip.

David Bell is likely to give starts to Will Benson when there's a right-handed pitcher on the bump. With that being the case, Stuart Fairchild might not get enough playing time at the outset of the season. Look for the 27-year-old to be optioned to Louisville by May 1st.

5. Fernando Cruz will not be on the Reds roster by May 1st.

Okay, this is not an overreaction to Thursday's horrific performance from Fernando Cruz. While walking in two runs and allowing another to score on a wild pitch is not ideal, Cruz will bounce back.

But at least one of the Cincinnati Reds relievers will be optioned to Triple-A in the coming weeks in order to make room for Tony Santillan, Lucas Sims, or both. Those two right-handed relievers began the 2023 season on the IL.

Cruz is one of a handful of Reds relievers who has minor-league options remaining. Joel Kuhnel is in that category also, and depending on how well he performs, the 28-year-old could find his way back to the Derby City as well.

Derek Law, Ian Gibaut, and Buck Farmer do not have minor league options remaining, so don't look for any one of that trio to be sent packing within the first month of the season.

Fernando Cruz didn't get a few calls that tickled the bottom of the strike zone on Opening Day, but it's inexcusable to walk three batters in less than one inning of work. Cruz likes to keep the ball down in the zone, but if opposing batters are aware of that, they may wait for him to elevate his pitches.

Based on the way the Cincinnati Reds roster is currently constructed, one of either Cruz, Kuhnel, Alex Young, Alexis Diaz, or Reiver Sanmartin will be optioned once the relief corps is back to full-strength. Young and Sanmartin represent the only two lefties in the bullpen, and Diaz isn't going anywhere. So it comes down to Kuhnel and Cruz.