3 Reds who've exceeded expectations through 50 games and 3 who've fallen short

The Cincinnati Reds (21-29) have fared better than most expected to begin the 2023 season. There've been some ups and downs, but overall, most fans like what they've seen from this scrappy bunch.

There's always preconceived expectations attached to teams and players before Opening Day, and the Reds are no exception.

Through 50 games, the Reds have a much better win-loss record than they did in 2022 (18-32). So which Cincinnati players have exceeded expectations so far this season and who has fallen short?

Reds OF TJ Friedl has exceeded expectations through 50 games in 2023.

While a stint on the Injured List certainly sucked the momentum out of the outstanding season that TJ Friedl had been having, there's no denying that the Cincinnati Reds centerfielder has exceeded expectations in 2023.

Friedl saw some time in the big leagues during the 2021 season and received a bump in his playing time last season while yo-yo'ing between the majors and Triple-A Louisville. But it was an adjustment to his hitting approach that really helped Friedl turn the corner in 2022.

It carried over to spring training, and early on in 2023, David Bell utilized Friedl as a platoon option in the outfield against right-handed pitchers. But as the season has progressed, Friedl and fellow left-handed hitter Jake Fraley have gained the confidence of their manager against both right-handers and southpaws.

TJ Friedl has shown power, speed, and a desire to create chaos on a regular basis. Friedl just returned from an oblique injury this week, but there's not reason to believe that the Reds outfielder won't return to that level of play he showed earlier this season. Friedl, perhaps more than any other player on the Cincinnati Reds roster, has exceeded expectations through the first 50 games of this season.

Reds 3B Nick Senzel has exceeded expectations through 50 games in 2023.

Is this finally the year that Nick Senzel lives up to the hype of being a former first-round draft pick? He's looked pretty good so far, and a lot of the production may be due to defensive position he now has on lockdown.

Senzel's resurgence in the batters' box has also come with the concept of playing the University of Tennessee alum returning to his natural position on the infield dirt. Senzel has become the Cincinnati Reds everyday third baseman and has seen little time in outfield of late.

If Senzel looks like he's played the position for years, it's because he has. The Reds selected with their first-round pick in 2016 as a third baseman. Senzel played either second or third base at every level of the minors. But with the dismissal of Billy Hamilton, the club figured their best way of getting Senzel into the everyday lineup was to move him to the outfield.

The shift seemed to only exacerbate the injury-prone narrative that had hounded Senzel throughout his minor league career. The extra wear and tear of chasing down balls in the outfield and crashing into walls didn't help when it came to keeping Senzel on the field.

This season, Nick Senzel has emerged as a reliable hitter and fielder and is beginning to look a lot like the player Cincinnati thought they were drafting almost 10 years ago. Senzel has certainly exceeded expectations through the first 50 games of this season.

Reds C Luke Maile has exceeded expectations through 50 games in 2023.

It's fair to say that most of Reds Country assumed that former Cincinnati backstop Curt Casali would get the majority of starts behind the plate when Tyler Stephenson was given a break from catching duties. But that playing time has, instead, been given to Luke Maile.

Maile signed a one-year contract with the Reds during the offseason and most assumed that the University of Kentucky alum might find his way into the lineup once per week and help the Reds in their plan to decrease Stephenson's injury risk by getting him out from behind the plate on a regular basis.

But it's doubtful that anyone thought Maile would be the Reds best hitting backstop 50 games into the season. The former Cleveland Guardians catcher has posted power numbers well above both Stephenson and Casali.

Maile has also handled the pitching staff and defensive duties behind the dish quite well. Maile does a very good job at controlling the run game and has been used as a defensive replacement late in games on multiple occasions.

Unlike both TJ Friedl and Nick Senzel, Luke Maile hasn't carved out an everyday role with this year's Reds squad, and if the current roster construction holds, it's doubtful he will. But 50 games into the 2023 season, Maile has certainly exceeded the expectations of both the fans and coaching staff.

Reds LHP Nick Lodolo has fallen short of expectations through 50 games in 2023.

Nick Lodolo is currently on the Injured List, and the latest reports suggest that Reds fans may not see last year's rookie until closer to the All-Star break. An MRI revealed that Lodolo has a stress reaction in his tibia and that's going to cause the lefty to miss several weeks of playing time.

The question becomes whether or not the injury contributed to Lodolo's poor performance this season. Because while it's a shame to see the southpaw shelved with an injury, Lodolo looked like a shell of the pitcher who took the mound in 2022.

Before landing on the IL, Lodolo owned a 6.29 ERA through seven starts. While his strikeouts were up (47 over 34.1 innings of work), so were his home run totals. The left-hander surrendered 10 round trippers so far this season, and once again leads the league in hit batsmen (7).

The most troubling stat for Lodolo may be his home run to fly ball rate. According to FanGraphs, Lodolo's HR/FB is a whopping 27-percent. Last year, that number was 15.1-percent. For reference, 9.5-percent is about average. Yikes.

Now, there's every reason to believe that the HR/FB can come back down, after all, it's very early. But when Nick Lodolo returns to the bump later this season, the Cincinnati Reds will need the left-hander to do a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Reds C Tyler Stephenson has fallen short of expectations through 50 games in 2023.

If you're concerned about Tyler Stephenson 50 games into the 2023 season, you're not alone. Of all the Reds players on Cincinnati's roster who may be deemed "struggling", Stephenson's shortcomings are the most concerning.

Stephenson is supposed to be a cornerstone of the Cincinnati Reds franchise for years to come. There's even been whispers of Stephenson being a possible contract extension candidate. Unless the Reds are able to get the backstop on a steal of a deal, the front office should abort any plans to offer Stephenson an extension anytime soon.

It hasn't just been Stephenson's bat that's let him down. Though hitting under .250 and posting a strikeout-rate of nearly 30-percent definitely reveals an issue with Stephenson's swing.

However, his defense has just not been up to par. After gunning down over 27-percent of would-be base stealers in 2022, Stephenson is just 3-for-15 (20-percent) when it comes to nabbing runners this year. Stephenson's framing, which has long since been an issue, hasn't gotten better. And the Reds catcher has -2 defensive runs saved according to FanGraphs.

With Joey Votto readying for a return and Christian Encarnacion-Strand slugging away in the minors, a move to first base seems unlikely. There's not much the Cincinnati Reds can do other than to ride out this storm, but Stephenson has underwhelming through the first 50 games of 2023.