Reds' 2025 MLB Draft Lottery Odds: White Sox and A's aid chances for top pick

While the sting of missing the postseason has not yet worn off for Cincinnati Reds fans, a balm could be on the way. Sure, Reds fans are waiting for the hot stove, but some excitement could be had with this year’s MLB Draft Lottery.

The selection, which will take place in early December, determines the top six draft positions. Cincinnati, which finished the year with the ninth-worst record in the Majors, would seem to be a long-shot for a top pick. But the Reds received some unexpected help from unlikely sources: the Chicago White Sox and Oakland A’s.

Those two teams were among the most depressing stories in the majors this season. Between record-setting futility and a heartbreaking departure, it’s almost as if fans in Chicago and Oakland (well, Las Vegas by way of Sacramento) deserve a lottery pick. Too bad.

The Reds have an outside shot at a top draft pick thanks to the White Sox and A's

MLB’s rules stipulate that non-revenue sharing teams, like the White Sox, cannot pick higher than 10th if they had a lottery pick the previous year. Chicago owned the No. 5 pick last year. The A’s, a revenue-sharing team, are barred from a third consecutive lottery slot after holding the No. 6 and No. 4 pick in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

All of this is to say that, although the Reds appear to have the ninth-best odds, they actually have the seventh-best chances of landing in the top six picks. The odds that Cincinnati obtains the top pick in the draft are slim, at 3.7 percent, but if the White Sox and A’s were eligible, the odds would be even slimmer.

In the prior two years, the team with the seventh-best odds did, in fact, move into the lottery round. An early pick would pay dividends for the Reds, who have graduated a significant number of their prospects in the past two seasons and still others have taken a step back. The 2025 MLB Draft promises to be full of well-developed talent and promising high schoolers that could join the next wave of Cincy stars.

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