Does Jonathan India's 2024 resurgence make him a long-term fixture or trade bait?

The Cincinnati Reds’ struggling offense has had a few flashes of brightness, but Jonathan India’s torrid run in June offered a prolonged, consistent source of excitement. The second baseman wrapped up the month with a .380 average and a 1.041 OPS, far and away the monthly numbers of his career. The hot streak, though, may not be enough to secure the former Rookie of the Year’s long-term future with the Reds.

Based on the flurry of rumors entering this season, the Reds are not above moving India. Whether Cincinnati entertains offers for India at this month’s trade deadline depends on two questions. Is India’s resurgence sustainable, and will Matt McLain provide immediate dividends upon his return from injury? If the Reds do opt to shop India, he could have multiple suitors in contention.

Jonathan India’s fate at the MLB trade deadline may come down to whether the Reds believe his hot streak is the real deal.

On the one hand, India’s hot streak seems like it could very well be a true return to form. His worst season, 2022, was marked by a lingering hamstring injury. His performance in 2024 bears much more in common with his other healthy seasons. For example, his xWOBA, which is a measure predictive of a player’s true skill, has stayed within a 13 point range, between .339 and .352, when healthy.

India’s actual results are measuring up to these expectations, as well. The difference between his WOBA and xWOBA is just -0.006. He is only one of three second basemen with above-average WOBA with such a small differential. In other words, his quality of contact and his strikeout and walk rates indicate that this offensive trend will continue.

This long-term offensive promise is also what makes India valuable. Most of the hot second basemen are over-performing, statistically speaking. If a contender is looking for a table-setter, they could do worse than India. His wRC+ is third-best among second basemen despite playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The Reds certainly have a valuable asset on their hands, regardless if his hot streak fades as July rolls on. The New York Yankees could use a replacement for Gleyber Torres at second, and Los Angeles Dodgers’ infielder Gavin Lux is the weakest point in that formidable roster. The San Diego Padres’ acquisition of Luis Arraez in exchange for three top 15 organizational prospects proved that bat-to-ball skills still hold value on the trade market.

Cincinnati has graduated a number of its top prospects in recent years. Five of the Yankees’ top 15 prospects, as ranked by MLB.com, are at the Triple-A level, while four Dodgers prospects fall in that category. If the Reds cut ties with India, the immediate payoff could be well worth the sacrifice.

More Cincinnati Reds New and Rumors