3 Reds who are in danger of losing their 40-man roster spot

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We already saw the Cincinnati Reds make a move to accommodate newly signed outfielder Tommy Pham when the team placed right-hander Tejay Antone on the 60-day Injured List. With a couple non-roster invitees likely to make the cut, a few more moves may be necessary.

Buck Farmer, Brandon Drury, and either Aramís García or Andrew Knapp will likely be added to the Reds 40-man roster. Nick Lodolo may be added as well, though that may come a few days after the start of the regular season.

But, if the Reds make additions to the 40-man roster, the team must also make a corresponding move. While placing Justin Dunn on the 60-day IL is a possibility, that won't be enough. A few more players may lose their spot on the 40-man roster prior to Opening Day. Who are the three most likely candidates?

1. Reds OF Shogo Akiyama is in danger of losing his roster spot.

Whether or not Shogo Akiyama is on the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day roster is going to come down to a myriad of factors. Will Akiyama accept a minor league assignment? Will the Reds carry 14 pitchers or 15 pitchers? Will Cincinnati eat Akiyama's $8M salary? How the club and Akiyama answer those questions will determine whether or not the outfielder is on the roster.

The Reds have the ability to option Akiyama to the minors, but he also has a clause in his contract that allows him to refuse the assignment and elect free agency instead. It seems logical that if the Reds optioned Akiyama to Triple-A, he'd decide instead to sign with another club. In doing so, the Reds would have to pay his $8M salary.

OF Shogo Akiyama remains in the competition to make the team.

Reds GM Nick Krall confirmed that Akiyama does have in his contract the ability to “refuse” an option to the minors and elect free agency instead.
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) March 30, 2022

Do the Reds carry 14 pitchers and 14 position players on their Opening Day roster or 15 pitchers and 13 position players? With the off day on Monday 11th and a four-man rotation to begin the season, plus no limit on the number of times a player can be optioned to the minor leagues prior to May 2nd, the smart money is on Cincinnati carrying 14 pitchers. That may bode well for Akiyama.

The final question is the big one; will the Cincinnati Reds pay Shogo Akiyama $8M to not play for them? Yikes, that's a lot of cash, and less than what Jesse Winker will take home this season. Ouch, too soon?!

Anyway, if the Reds are going to treat Akiyama like a fifth outfielder anyway, they're already wasting that money. The starting outfield is comprised of Tommy Pham, Nick Senzel, and Tyler Naquin with Jake Fraley acting as the first outfielder off the bench. I'd argue that TJ Friedl would give the Reds a better chance to win than Akiyama, and so the two sides should just go their separate ways.

Zack Godley at Cincinnati Reds Photo Day. / Sam Wasson/GettyImages

2. Reds RHP Zack Godley is in danger of losing his roster spot.

This one seems rather easy, don't you think? Strangely, the Cincinnati Reds signed Zack Godley to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training and then, shortly thereafter, added the right-hander to the 40-man roster.

Godley was recently sent to minor league camp, so the writing would appear to be on the wall. Godley has appeared in three Cactus League games this spring, pitched 6.1 innings, struck out four batters, and allowed five runs on six hits as well as six free passes. That's not going to get you on the Opening Day roster.

Godley may well find his way onto the Louisville Bats roster if the 31-year-old accepts an assignment to Triple-A. Godley has no minor-league options remaining, so he'd likely be designated for assignment when the time comes to cut ties with the journeyman reliever. However, the Reds could decide to just release Godley outright.

Zack Godley has some value to the organization, especially during the early-going of the 2022 season. The right-hander has seen time as a starter and a reliever, and given the lack of time pitchers have had to prepare for the season, it's possible we see Godley recalled to the big leagues some time in April. But I think chances are pretty good that Godley will lose his spot on the 40-man roster.

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Riley O'Brien (57) delivers during a spring training game. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

3. Reds RHP Riley O'Brien is in danger of losing his roster spot.

Riley O'Brien's uninspiring start on Friday against the Los Angeles Angels may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. O'Brien allowed three runs on five hits over two innings of work, and while he did strikeout perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout, O'Brien's body of work this spring just might not cut it.

O'Brien has appeared in three games and pitched in four innings. The right-hander does have four strikeouts, but four runs on six hits isn't very encouraging. O'Brien spent almost the entire 2021 season at Triple-A Louisville, though the former Tampa Bay Rays farmhand did make his MLB debut in September last season.

Against the vaunted Chicago White Sox lineup, O'Brien lasted just 1.1 innings and allowed two solo home runs while walking three batters and striking out two. O'Brien was lifted after one time through the White Sox batting order.

Riley O'Brien, a former seventh-round draft pick of the Rays, came to Cincinnati in the deal that saw Cody Reed traded to Tampa Bay in 2020. The Cincinnati Reds coaching staff still hasn't decided whether or not O'Brien is a starter or reliever.

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I believe Cincinnati would like to keep O'Brien in the organization, but given how the roster looks to be constructed, that might not be feasible. O'Brien can get strikeouts, but the right-hander also has a tendency to put runners on base. O'Brien had a walk-rate of 11.2% and a 4.39 BB/9 with Triple-A Louisville last season.

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