3 dark horse candidates for the last spot in the Reds' Opening Day rotation

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The Cincinnati Reds have done a lot to ensure that the team's 2024 starting rotation does not undergo the same perils from last season. Rather than turning to Michael Mariot or Randy Wynne, in a pinch, the front office's investment during free agency has helped to add depth to the rotation.

By signing Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas, the Reds rotation would appear to have a strong mix of experienced veterans and talented youngsters. Cincinnati is hoping that Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo will emerge from Goodyear, Arizona healthy and ready to make a difference in 2024.

But there's always that dark horse, the one nobody saw coming, who emerges once spring training begins. Relievers Derek Law and Alex Young did just that a year ago, and parlayed a strong spring into a spot on the 2023 Opening Day roster. Which three Reds players could make a dark-horse run at the final spot in the Reds rotation?

1. Brandon Williamson

It feels odd even listing Brandon Williamson as a dark horse to make the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Opening Day roster, but that just shows how deep the team's pitching staff is heading into the upcoming season.

Williamson had an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster out of spring training last year, but was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to begin the season. However, the left-hander quickly made his way to the big leagues and had a positive impact on the club upon his promotion.

Williamson essentially took over for fellow left-hander and his former TCU teammate Nick Lodolo after the Reds' 2019 first-round pick was sidelined with an injury. Lodolo's placement on the 60-day IL combined with Connor Overton's injury and Luis Cessa's dismissal resulted in continued opportunities for Williamson.

The 25-year-old started 23 games for Cincinnati a year ago and logged over 110 inning of work. Williamson had a very good stretch during the month of August, posting a 3.67 ERA while only allowing opposing batters to hit .224. Williamson did, however, run out of gas down the stretch and only made it past the fifth inning once over his final four games.

Brandon Williamson will be given a fair shake to make the Reds Opening Day roster, and if any one of Cincinnati's starters suffers a setback or injury, the left-hander will be the next man up. But if everyone is healthy, it'll take a Herculean effort from Williamson this spring in order to make a run at that final spot in the rotation.

2. Connor Phillips

While Brandon Williamson has shown that he has what it takes to get big league hitters out, Connor Phillips still has much to prove. However, there might not be a pitcher in the entire organization with a better mix of pure stuff. But that alone won't get it done.

Phillips was a non-roster invitee to big league camp last year, but was optioned to the minors leagues before the 2023 season began. Phillips showed why so many coaches and evaluators within the Reds organization are so high on him.

The right-hander, who's viewed as one of the Top 100 prospects in baseball, has a developing four-pitch mix with a fastball that touches the upper-90s. If Phillips can continue to develop both his breaking balls and his off-speed pitch, the 22-year-old has an extremely high ceiling.

The problem, however, is Phillips' command. Some scouts have suggested that Phillips' ability to control his pitches is bad enough that he could wind up in the bullpen. That seems a bit extreme for a pitcher who's not even 23 years old. But when you see a walk-rate over 12-percent during his 24 starts in the minors, you understand what they're talking about.

Connor Phillips is certainly a dark horse candidate to make a run at the Opening Day roster. He has minor league options remaining, and with just 10 starts at Triple-A under his belt, the former Seattle Mariners farmhand could definitely use more seasoning. But, if Phillips is able to show an ability to get swings and misses without putting free runners on base, he's got an outside shot to slot into the Reds rotation.

3. Lyon Richardson

If you want to talk about a true dark horse to make the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Opening Day rotation, look no further than Lyon Richardson. The right-hander, who was the Reds' second-round pick several years back, was a surprising addition to the 40-man roster last offseason.

Many Reds fans were caught off guard when Cincinnati decided to add Richardson to the roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. After all, Richardson was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and his track record in the minors was spotty at best.

As it turns out, the Reds needed Richardson in 2023. The 24-year-old made four starts, and while his stat line is less than impressive, 16.2 innings pitched is not nearly enough to make an informed judgment about his future. Richardson posted a ghastly 8.64 ERA and 18.5-percent walk-rate.

But, during his stint in the minors last season, which included stops at Low-A Daytona, Double-A Chattanooga, and Triple-A Louisville, Richardson collected 24 starts and posted a 3.50 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 69.1 innings of work while only allowing two home runs. Opposing batters only hit .206 off Richardson during those games.

It will take a strong showing by Richardson during spring training in order to find his way onto the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day roster that's loaded with talented arms. But don't discount his ability to out-pitch the competition.

Being another year fully removed from elbow surgery may allow Richardson to showcase the immense talent that saw him taken with the 47th-overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and protected from the 2022 Rule 5 Draft.

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