Reds: Answering the 5 biggest questions of the offseason

The Cincinnati Reds 2021 season came to a close on Sunday with a win in Pittsburgh. The Redlegs defeated the Buccos by a score of 6-3 and the attention now shifts from the players to the front office and ownership.

Oh sure, some players, namely Nick Castellanos, have some decisions to make in the coming weeks and months, but the direction of this team heading into the 2022 season rests on the shoulders of GM Nick Krall, CEO Bob Castellini, and the other decision-makers in the Reds front office.

Joey Votto’s resurgence along with the emergence of rookies Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson have helped to lay a solid foundation for next season. Cincinnati’s starting rotation can remain intact, and the club’s top two prospects look like they’re ready to make contributions in 2022.

However, there are some big questions heading into the offseason. I’ll try my best to answer the most pressing issues facing Cincinnati’s front office moving forward.

1. Will Nick Castellanos opt out of his contract with the Reds?

This is the first domino to fall, and I think all of Reds Country understands that baseball is a business. Nick Castellanos can opt out of the final two years of his contract. In doing so, he’ll leave $34M on the table.

That’s a lot of money for folks like you and me, but Castellanos stands to take home a bigger pay day if he exercises the opt out clause in his contract. Last offseason, we saw George Springer sign a six-year/$150M contract.

Now, I doubt that Castellanos will see that type of cash. Springer is a three-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and World Series MVP. However, Marcel Ozuna cashed in on his 2020 performance and signed a four-year/$65M contract last winter as well. I think Castellanos will be able to take home a contract in that ballpark, and may even be able to sign for more.

Will Nick Castellanos opt out of the final two years of his contract with the Cincinnati Reds? Yes. Castellanos has expressed his happiness with this Reds team, but in the end, the opportunity to cash in on an MVP-type season is too good to pass up.

2. Will the Reds re-sign Nick Castellanos?

Obviously, we had to get question No. 1 out of the way before we could move along to question No. 2. Presuming Nick Castellanos opts out of his contract with the Cincinnati Reds, will the front office be able to re-sign the All-Star outfielder?

The Reds can re-sign Castellanos. The more appropriate question might be whether or not Bob Castellini is willing to open up his wallet in order to meet Castellanos’ contract demands. I told you earlier that I expect Castellanos to sign a deal that’s more lucrative than what Marcel Ozuna signed, but it’ll be less than the one that George Springer signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Ozuna’s deal offers an average annual value of $16.25M and Springer’s contract allows the former Houston Astros star to take home, on average, $25M per year. Let’s meet in the middle and assume that Nick Castellanos will be looking to sign a four-to-five year deal with an AAV of $20M.

That means we’re looking at a four-year/$80M contract or possibly a five-year/$100M contract. Can the Reds afford to pay Castellanos that kind of money? Sure, but it’s going to impact how the team constructs the rest of its roster, and it may impact potential contract extensions with other players.

Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle will all be due substantial raises via arbitration after their performances during the 2021 season. All three are possible candidates to receive contract extensions this winter as well.

So, back to the original question, will the Cincinnati Reds re-sign Nick Castellanos? This is a tough one. If the Reds are able to match any offer Castellanos receives, I believe the slugger will return to Cincinnati. If another team outbids the Reds, I think Castellanos will be playing elsewhere next season. I hope I’m wrong, but I do not expect the Reds to re-sign Nick Castellanos.

3. Will the Reds pick up Tucker Barnhart’s team-option?

This has become a very emotionally-charged question over the last couple weeks. Once it became apparent that the Cincinnati Reds were out of playoff contention, the attention of the fans shifted to who’ll be coming back in 2022. The Reds hold a $7.5M team-option on Tucker Barnhart. Will they exercise it?

The 2021 season, in many ways, was a measuring stick for Tyler Stephenson. The Reds non-tendered Curt Casali last winter, basically paving the way for Stephenson to split time with Barnhart behind the plate.

Stephenson’s offensive potential is thorough the roof. The 25-year-old looked like a veteran out there this season, coming up clutch when the team needed him the most. Stephenson also didn’t commit a single error behind the dish. Stephenson recorded 4 defensive runs saved while splitting time with Barnhart and gunned down 8 of a would-be 34 base stealers this season.

It’s time for Tyler Stephenson to take the next step and become the Cincinnati Reds questioned starting catcher. Stephenson needs to be in the lineup every day, and the team can no longer afford to platoon him with another catcher.

Will the Cincinnati Reds pick up Tucker Barnhart’s team-option? Sorry folks, I’m not seeing it. The fact is, Tyler Stephenson needs to be in the lineup five-to-six days a week, and that’s not going to happen with a veteran like Barnhart on the team. The Reds instead, will pay Barnhart’s $500K buyout, allowing the backstop to enter free agency for the first time.

4. Will the Reds pick up Wade Miley’s team-option?

This might be the easiest decision the Cincinnati Reds’ brass will have to make all winter. Wade Miley enters the offseason with the Reds holding a $10M team-option or $1M buyout. Miley, who pitched a no-hitter this season, should have his option picked up.

Miley was the anchor of the year’s Cincinnati rotation. I, for one, was very surprised at how Miley managed to navigate the season, and while September didn’t end as he had hoped, the southpaw still started 28 games and, according to Baseball Reference, led the Reds in WAR (6.0).

Miley is a pro in every sense of the word. He’s diligent about how he handles his craft, and while he’s not going to blow you away with a 97-MPH heater, Miley knows how adapt his game to the opposing hitter. This was, statistically, Miley’s best season since 2015 in Boston, and may have been his best since 2012 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

All five of Cincinnati’s starters are under team control through next season. Vladimir Gutierrez is pre-arbitration eligible, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will be up for Round 2 of arbitration, and Sonny Gray has one year remaining on his contract.

I’m not sold that all five starters will return to the hill for the Reds in 2022, but Miley’s option should unquestionably be picked up. Even if Cincinnati picks up Wade Miley’s option with the intent to trade him this offseason, the bottom line is, the Reds cannot allow the left-hander to enter free agency.