Reds vs. Pirates: Preview, pitching matchup, and prediction

Six of the Reds final 12 games are against the Pirates.

The Cincinnati Reds (77-73) are running out of time. The Redlegs trails the St. Louis Cardinals by three games in the chase for the final Wild Card spot with 12 left to play. Thankfully, six of the Reds’ upcoming contests are against the Pittsburgh Pirates (56-93).

On the flip side, the Redbirds have 14 games remaining and seven of those are against the NL Central Division Champion Milwaukee Brewers. St. Louis is riding an eight-game winning streak while Cincinnati has dropped eight consecutive series. The Reds are 8-16 in their last 24 games. Ouch!

Before this horrific streak began, the Reds were 12 games over .500 and looked to be a lock for the postseason. According to Baseball Reference, over the past month, the Redlegs chances of making the playoffs has gone down 44.7%. Only the New York Yankees’ postseason aspirations have taken a bigger hit.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have seen their postseason odds increase by 72.4% in the past month as Mike Shildt’s ball club sits atop the Wild Card standings with both the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies sitting three games back. The Reds playoff chances now sit at 17.9%.

But, there’s reason for hope, Reds Country. The Redlegs close out the season with six games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, four against the Washington Nationals, and two with the soon-to-be crowned AL Central Champion Chicago White Sox. The Reds have everything to play for over the next two weeks and their opponents do not.

Pittsburgh is on their way to a 100-loss season, the Nationals are 3-7 over their last 10 games, and the White Sox will probably be more concerned about setting their rotation for the postseason than winning games by the time Cincinnati rolls into the Windy City.

The Cardinals face two of Milwaukee’s best starters (Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff) in the coming days, and if the Reds can upend the Buccos, there’s a chance that Cincinnati can be right back in the thick of the playoff hunt by the end of the week. Let’s preview the upcoming series against the Pirates, shall we?

Pirates outfielder Yoshi Tsutsugo did damage versus the Reds last week.

Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Yoshi Tsutsugo has been on a tear of late. Over his last 26 games, Tsutsugo is hitting .292/.395/.625 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. Only Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds have collected more hits for the Buccos during the last month.

Prior to last season, the Japanese star signed a two-year/$12M contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, but was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers this past May after hitting .167 in 87 plate appearances. The 29-year-old was released by LA in August, signed by Pittsburgh, and has been mashing for the Pirates ever since.

While the Bucs are well on their way to a 100-loss season, don’t let their win-loss record fool you. The Bucs have the seventh-best batting average over the last month, and while their slugging percentage during that time ranks 11th-best in the NL, their .325 on-base percentage during that timeframe is good enough for the sixth-highest in the National League.

In short, the Pirates recent string of success has been predicated by the age old notion of getting ’em on, getting ’em over, and getting ’em in. In fact, 20% of the Pirates’ league-worst 549 runs scored have come in the last 30 days. To put it in perspective, the Reds have scored only 12.9% of their 720 runs over the last 30 days.

The Pittsburgh pitching staff, however, isn’t enjoying the same success. Bucco hurlers rank in the bottom-third of the league in ERA and strikeouts over the last month while also issuing 96 free passes, the fifth most in the NL. We’ve said this plenty of times this season, Reds’ hitters need to be patient at the dish.

Previewing the pitching matchup: Reds vs. Pirates

Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6 4.52 ERA) will go to the hill tonight still in search of his 10th victory on the season. Opposing Gutierrez will be Dillon Peters (1-2 2.66 ERA) of the Pirates. The Reds are hoping for a better outcome versus Peters this go-around.

Gutierrez was roughed up by the Buccos during his last outing, and the right-hander will surely be looking for revenge after going just 3.2 innings last Wednesday in the Steel City. Gutierrez hasn’t made it past the fourth inning in three of his last four starts and has a 7.80 ERA during that stretch. The Reds’ bullpen better be ready.

The Redlegs couldn’t figure Dillon Peters out during last Tuesday’s game in Pittsburgh. The southpaw went five innings, struck out five batters, and didn’t allow a run. Look for a bevy of right-handed bats in David Bell’s lineup tonight with Jose Barrero likely getting another start in center field.

Tyler Mahle (12-5 3.59 ERA) heads to the bump on Tuesday night and he’ll be opposed by Pittsburgh’s starting pitcher Mitch Keller (4-11 6.14 ERA). Mahle will need to be wary of Ke’Bryan Hayes, as the rookie is 4-for-6 against the Reds’ right-hander with a home run this season.

Mahle hasn’t been great at home. Of the 23 homers Mahle has surrendered this season, 18 have come at Great American Ball Park. Mahle needs to keep the ball in the yard on Tuesday night in order to give his team a chance to win.

Mitch Keller hasn’t been very good this season. In his last outing versus the Redlegs, the Bucs’ right-hander went five innings, surrendered two earned runs, and struck out just three. Look for Nick Castellanos to feast on Keller, as the All-Star outfielder is hitting .353 off the Pirates’ starter this season and has two round trippers.

Pirates’ skipper Derek Shelton hasn’t announced a starting pitcher for Wednesday’s game just yet, but David Bell will send his ace to the hill. Luis Castillo (8-15 4.08 ERA) had, perhaps, his best outing the season last Friday versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, punching out 10 batters through 6.1 innings of work.

Castillo has been an enigma this season. We saw the right-hander struggle mightily during the early part of the season, only to turn things around midway through his 2021 campaign. Castillo has been very good in his last seven starts, going 45.1 innings, striking out 51 batters, and posting a 2.78 ERA. Pirates’ All-Star, Bryan Reynolds, is 0-for-9 versus Castillo this season.