Cincinnati Reds playoff odds drop well-below 50-percent
By Drew Koch
The Cincinnati Reds have hit a rough patch at the worst time. David Bell’s group has dropped seven of their last nine games and haven’t won a series since their four-game sweep of the Miami Marlins on August 22nd.
The Reds now sit one game back of the San Diego Padres in the chase for the final Wild Card spot and, according to FanGraphs, have just a 37.7% chance of making the playoffs. The Padres have usurped the Reds and are the current favorites to hang on to the final Wild Card spot, though the Philadelphia Phillies are gaining steam.
FanGraphs predicts the Padres have a 42% chance at making the postseason while the Phillies chances sit at 39.4%. Only two games separate the top three contenders for the final spot in the National League, and even Atlanta’s lead in the NL East has shrunk to just 1.5 games. The final few weeks of the season are going to be exciting.
The Reds odds of making the postseason have taken a hit.
After completing their four-game trouncing of the Miami Marlins, the Cincinnati Reds’ chances of making the postseason were sitting at 64.1%. That’s pretty good for a team that was given a 22.7% of making the playoffs at the beginning of August.
But, as the calendar flipped to September, we’ve seen the Redlegs hit a wall. They’re currently without one of their best hitters, Jesse Winker, and the team has lost winnable games against inferior opponents.
The last four series, all of which have ended with the Reds losing two of three games, were against the Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, and the Detroit Tigers. Now, we all know that the Brewers are one of the best team in the NL, and there’s no shame dropping games to Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but the other losses are inexcusable.
Yes, it’s baseball and strange things happen regularly. But, with the playoffs in sight and one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball, Cincinnati missed a golden opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the other NL contenders.
Now, all is not lost. The Reds trail the Padres by just one game, and even FanGraphs doesn’t give much confidence to the trio of San Diego, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati, as the playoff odds of all three teams sits below 43%.
The Cincinnati Reds have a chance to heat up, but they’ve got to hit the panic button at this point and cannot continue to lose games against opponents like the Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, and Detroit Tigers.
Cincinnati can still win their current series against Chicago, and has the opportunity to win three-game road sets versus both St. Louis and Pittsburgh before returning home to face the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. This next stretch of eight road games needs to see the Reds win better than 50% of the contests, or this team will be in dire straits.