Reds vs. Cardinals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 24: Shogo Akiyama #4 of the Cincinnati Reds stands on second base in the second inning. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The Reds return home looking to extend their Wild Card advantage.

Dueces were indeed wild on the Reds’ recently completed six-game road trip. After dropping the first two games of the trek in Milwaukee, the Cincinnati Reds (71-61) battled back to take the series finale before opening their three-game set in Miami with a victory. Unfortunately, Cincinnati lost the final two contests in South Beach to wrap up a disappointing 2-4 week.

Fortunately, the Reds still maintain 1.5 game lead over the San Diego Padres for the second and final Wild Card berth in the National League. In addition, Baseball-Reference increased the Redlegs playoff chances to 82.2% entering play yesterday.

Cincinnati will open a six-game homestand tonight as the division rival St. Louis Cardinals visit the Queen City. As for the Friars, they are on the road battling the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, so the Redlegs must take care of business at Great American Ball Park.

The Redbirds are coming to roost at GABP for the third and final time in the 2021 season. However, St. Louis (66-63) is coming off a stinging loss yesterday as the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Yoshi Tsutsugo blasted a three-run walk-off homer against Cardinals’ closer Alex Reyes to give the Pirates a 4-3 victory.

Like the Reds, the Cardinals’ only realistic path to the postseason is through the Wild Card. St. Louis sits in third place in the NL Central, 12 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Additionally, the Redbirds trail Cincinnati by 3.5 games in the Wild Card race.

As the two teams begin their final battle in Cincinnati for the 2021 campaign, the Reds hold an 8-5 mark against the Cardinals, including a 4-2 record at GABP. Therefore, a series victory would provide the Redlegs their first season series win over St. Louis since the 2011 season.

ST LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 24: Jack Flaherty #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals is removed from the game. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images) /

Cardinals seek reinforcements wherever they can find them.

When St. Louis acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies over the winter for not much more than a song, I’m sure they didn’t anticipate struggling to remain over .500 as September approaches, but that’s the song their singing. Unfortunately for Redbird Nation, injuries have taken a major toll on this club.

Four of the five hurlers projected to open the season in the St. Louis rotation have spent time on the IL this season. Yet, miraculously, only 40-year-old right-hander Adam Wainwright has managed to avoid the shelf.

How bad has it been for the Redbirds? The following trio has all started games this season. Wade LeBlanc, Jon Lester, and J.A. Happ. More on Lester and Happ shortly. Needless to say, pitching coach Mike Maddux has been forced to play the role of a magician.

However, injuries have not been limited to the rotation alone. Key bullpen pieces such as Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller have missed time. Neither will be available to manager Mike Schildt as the calendar turns to September.

Yet, not everything can be blamed on injuries. Half of the Redbirds’ everyday lineup has been below average at the plate. The quartet of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman, and Yadier Molina have posted an OPS+ mark below the 100 league average.

One of the fatal flaws for the St. Louis offense this season has been their inability to draw free passes. As a result, their 392 bases on balls ranked 13th in the senior circuit as play began yesterday. Only first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill have an OBP above the .318 league average.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 15: Pitcher Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds delivers a pitch. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cardinals.

Luis Castillo (7-13 4.29 ERA) kicks off the series tonight as the Cardinals counter with Jon Lester (4-6 5.27 ERA). In his last two trips to the mound, La Piedra has been impressive.

Tossing 13.1 innings, he’s allowed three runs while recording 13 strikeouts without surrendering a long ball. Additionally, Castillo has been excellent in his last two starts against the Redbirds. Working 13 frames, he’s limited St. Louis to a couple of runs on eight hits while collecting 14 punchouts.

It will be strange seeing Jon Lester wearing the Birds on the Bat; however, there’s no reason for the Reds to take the 37-year-old lightly. The southpaw has held the Redlegs to one run in 10 innings in their last two meetings, including five no-hit frames in July of last year.

Tuesday finds Sonny Gray (6-6 3.91 ERA) battling Miles Mikolas (0-1 2.70 ERA) of the Redbirds. When the Reds have needed him most, Gray has answered the call. The Vanderbilt alum has tossed 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts and allowed just four hits.

However, Gray will need to tread carefully against the Cardinals. In his last five starts versus St. Louis, the Cincinnati right-hander is winless with an eye-popping 9.30 ERA. In addition, he’s failed to complete four frames in his last three outings versus the Redbirds.

Mikolas will be making just his fourth start of the season following a lengthy stint on the IL with a forearm injury. Manager Mike Schildt has kept the right-hander on a very short leash as he’s pitched into the fifth inning just once. In his last five starts against the Reds, Mikolas is winless while compiling an unsightly 6.00 ERA in 27 frames.

Wednesday night’s series finale will feature Wade Miley (11-4 2.74 ERA) opposing the newly acquired J.A. Happ (8-6 5.76 ERA) of the Cardinals. What more can the Reds ask of Miley? The left-hander has been sensational all year.

Cincinnati’s most consistent starter has allowed just two runs in his last three starts covering 18.2 frames. In addition, Miley has been especially tough on the Redbirds. Over his last five starts versus St. Louis, he’s compiled an excellent 2.08 ERA.

J.A. Happ, acquired at the trade deadline from the Minnesota Twins, has faced the Reds once this season, and it wasn’t an enjoyable experience for the veteran. Lasting just 4.2 innings, the Redlegs dented the plate three times while drawing five walks and blasting a pair of round-trippers. The 38-year-old southpaw has not defeated Cincinnati since the 2015 campaign as a member of the Pirates.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 22: Kyle Farmer #17 of the Cincinnati Reds runs to first. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

Despite a yeoman’s effort, Reds shortstop Kyle Farmer has hit the wall.

Let’s be honest, no one could have anticipated Kyle Farmer making 103 starts by the end of August, but MLB’s July shortstop of the month is struggling mightily as the Reds race to the finish line in hopes of playing into October.

Following a sizzling July that saw the Georgia native slash .395/.456/.691 with a ridiculous 1.147 OPS, the past four weeks have been equally cruel. Producing a horrific slash line of .239/.260/.337 it’s evident Farmer needs some time off.

As the only legitimate shortstop on the roster, no, I’m not including Eugenio Suárez, Farmer may have to wait a couple of days before some much-needed rest arrives. After the Reds claimed Asdrubal Cabera off waivers on Friday, the front office sent Jose Barrero to Louisville to make room for the veteran.

Luckily, rosters expand to 28 players on Wednesday, and there should be no reason for them not to bring Barrero back to Cincinnati. Despite collecting just two hits in a dozen at-bats, the Reds shortstop of the future should receive some playing time down the stretch.

There’s certainly an argument to be made against giving a rookie significant playing time in September with a playoff berth at stake. Still, at this point, Kyle Farmer is not providing anything Barrero could not equal with regular playing time.

Prediction

Is it too early to start thinking about magic numbers? Of course, not. The Reds’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth is 30 entering tonight. So any combination of 30 Redleg victories or Padre losses and your Cincinnati Reds will be playoff-bound.

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But first things first. The Reds need to take care of business against the dreaded Cardinals to start chipping away at that magic number. As the Redbirds leave town and the Detroit Tigers enter for a weekend series, expect that magic number to be decreased by at least a couple of games as the Reds take two of the three from St. Louis.

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