Reds vs. Marlins: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 21: Jonathan India #6 of the Cincinnati Reds throws to first base past Lewis Brinson #25 of the Miami Marlins. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

The Reds conclude their road trip with a visit to South Beach.

It wasn’t easy, but the Cincinnati Reds (70-59) were able to salvage the final game of their three-game set in Milwaukee and finish their season series with the Brewers going 9-10 versus the National Central Division leaders. As a result, of losing more ground in the division, it’s time for Reds Country to set their sights firmly on the Wild Card race.

Despite dropping two of three to the Beer Makers, the Reds extended their advantage for the second and final Wild Card berth to two games as the Los Angeles Dodgers provided much-appreciated help by sweeping a three-game set from the San Diego Padres.

In a complete free fall, the Friars have lost 12 of their last 14 contests, allowing the Redlegs, who’ve gone 9-5 in their last 14 games, to surpass them in the standings.

However, don’t look for the Reds to receive such favors for much longer. This is a talented San Diego club that has a date with the Los Angeles Angels his weekend. If Cincinnati is to maintain its lead in the Wild Card race, they will need to take care of business in Miami.

After not facing the Marlins in the 2021 season until August 18th, the two clubs will conclude their season series over the next three days at LoanDepot Park. Hopefully, the Reds have some of the magic left from last weekend when they swept a four-game set from the Fish.

Miami bounced back this week, taking two of three from the Washington Nationals, but still occupy the National League East basement, trailing the division-leading Atlanta Braves by 16 games. However, the Redlegs should not take the Marlins for granted. Miami is 32-31 when playing in South Florida.

MIAMI, FLORIDA – AUGUST 25: Edward Cabrera #79 of the Miami Marlins reacts to a double play during the sixth inning. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The Marlins farm system is loaded with talent.

Even though the results on the diamond have offered very little excitement for Miami fans during the 2021 season, team president Derek Jeter and general manager Kim Ng have the Marlins pointed in the right direction. As a matter of fact, a big part of that future arrived this week at LoanDepot Park.

Right-hander Edward Cabrera, the Marlins No. 2 ranked prospect and No. 5 right-handed pitching prospect overall, right behind the Reds’ Hunter Greene, was solid in his MLB debut Wednesday night versus the Nationals. Tossing 6.1 innings, he allowed three runs on four hits while picking up the victory.

There’s more in the Marlins pipeline behind the 23-year-old Cabrera. Heading into the 2021 campaign, MLB.com ranked the Miami farm system as the best overall in the NL and the fourth-best in the game.

Currently, the Marlins have six players ranked among the top 100 prospects in baseball. According to MLB.com, a trio of pitchers could join Cabrera on the major league staff next year. Right-handers Max Meyer and Sixto Sanchez, as well as southpaw Jake Eder, are all projected to be in The Show in 2022.

Give the Marlins front office credit. A franchise that had arguably the worst farm system in the game as recently as 2018 has loaded up on quality prospects due to shrewd trades and strong draft classes. It may be a couple of seasons before the results translate at the big league level, but don’t be surprised to see the Miami bandwagon becoming quite full soon.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 01: Vladimir Gutierrez #53 of the Cincinnati Reds in action. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Marlins.

Wade Miley (10-4 2.88 ERA) opens the weekend festivities tonight opposing Zach Thompson (2-5 2.97 ERA) of the Marlins. The Cincinnati left-hander scuffled in his last trip to the mound against these very same Marlins, lasting just 4.2 innings and failing to qualify for a victory.

Miami had plenty of opportunities to break through versus Miley as they collected five hits and three free passes. However, the Marlins could plate just two runs against the southpaw in an eventual 7-4 Redlegs win.

Right-hander Zach Thompson was impressive in his first career start versus the Reds. Tossing five frames, the 27-year-old rookie held Cincinnati scoreless following a two-run blast from Nick Castellanos in the first inning. The Texan has been especially tough at LoanDepot Park, compiling an impressive 2.27 ERA in six starts.

Saturday night is alright for Vladimir Gutierrez (9-4 3.68 ERA) as he squares off against Sandy Alcantara (7-12 3.35 ERA). After limiting the Marlins to one run in seven innings this past Sunday, the Reds right-hander became the first Cincinnati pitcher since Mat Latos in 2013 to make six consecutive starts tossing 6-plus frames and allowing two runs or less.

The next victory for the Cuban will also make him the first Reds rookie to earn double-digit victories in a season since Scott Williamson in 1999. If those accolades weren’t enough, he’s also a dazzling 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA outside of Great American Ball Park.

Sandy Alcantara was the hard-luck loser in his start against Gutierrez last week. The right-hander allowed just two runs on four hits over seven innings while fanning 11 Reds. In two career starts versus Cincinnati, he’s whiffed an astounding 19 Redlegs in just 13 frames.

Sunday afternoon’s matinee series finale will feature Tyler Mahle (10-4 3.69 ERA) battling Jesus Luzardo (4-7 7.91 ERA) for manager Don Mattingly’s Marlins. It was another typical road performance from Mahle in his last trip to the mound.

Working 5.2 innings against the Brewers, the right-hander yielded just one run while punching out eight Beer Makers. However, the bullpen failed to protect a 4-1 Cincinnati lead as the Reds went down to defeat 7-4 on Tuesday night.

How good has Mahle been on the road this season? Try 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA good. Additionally, the Reds right-hander has abused left-handers this year, limiting them to a paltry .183/.262/.279 slash line.

Since being acquired from the Oakland A’s in the Starling Marte deal, it’s been tough going for left-hander Jesus Luzardo. In five starts as a member of the Marlins, he’s compiled a 9.67 ERA by allowing 31 hits, a staggering 17 walks, and five round-trippers in only 22.1 innings. Yikes. This will be his first start against the Reds in his career.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 01: Justin Wilson #34 of the Cincinnati Reds in action. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Justin Wilson has been cooking up outs since arriving in the Queen City.

It hasn’t been a lack of effort on manager David Bell’s part, but has he finally found the reliable left-handed arm out the bullpen this club so desperately needs? The early returns from Justin Wilson suggest Bell has found his man.

For much of the 2021 season, Reds Country has been subjected to repeated failures from southpaws out of the Reds bullpen. In addition, a myriad of left-handers, including Amir Garrett, Sean Doolittle, Josh Osich, and Cionel Perez have, more often than not, tossed gasoline onto the fires they inherited.

When the Reds acquired Wilson from the New York Yankees on July 28th, the Bronx Bombers were able to unload a less than appealing contract to help offset losing Luis Cessa to the Redlegs. The 34-year-old veteran who owns a player option for the 2022 season is making general manager Nick Krall look like a genius.

After compiling a horrific 7.50 ERA in 18 innings in the Big Apple, Wilson has been sensational out of the Reds bullpen. Appearing in 10 games, he’s allowed two runs on four hits in 8.2 frames while recording eight strikeouts. We didn’t know it at the time, but the acquisition of Justin Wilson may be one of the most significant moves of the 2021 campaign.

Prediction

It’s been a while since the Reds have visited South Beach. Their last trip in August of 2019 saw them take three of four from the Marlins in a series featuring starts from Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. Oh, the memories.

Next. Don't overreact if Castellanos opts out

Look for the Reds to return to GABP to face the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers next week with the NL Wild Card berth firmly in their sights as they take two of three from the Marlins to wrap up a 3-3 road trip.

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