Reds vs. Marlins: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds face a must-win series versus the visiting Marlins.

We can only hope the just-concluded series against a terrible Chicago Cubs team doesn’t come back to haunt the Cincinnati Reds (65-57). Facing a club that had dropped 12 in a row following Monday night’s defeat, the lowly North Siders fought back and took the final two games of the three game-set as the Cubbies auditioned successfully for the role of spoiler.

If there’s a silver lining, the Reds actually gained a game on the San Diego Padres in the race for the final Wild Card berth as the Colorado Rockies completed a three-game sweep of the Friars at Coors Field Wednesday afternoon. But, on the other hand, it’s painfully clear that the Reds’ only path to the postseason will be as a Wild Card.

The first-place Milwaukee Brewers have opened up a nine-game advantage over Cincinnati in the National League Central. As a result, with only three games remaining this season against the Beer Makers, even a sweep won’t provide a realistic chance of grabbing the division title.

It’s no secret as to why the Reds dropped the final two contests versus the Cubbies. After exploding for 14 runs in the opener, the Redlegs dented the plate just twice over the final 18 innings of the series and were taken to the woodshed yesterday in a 7-1 drubbing at the hands of the North Siders.

This weekend’s opponent, the Miami Marlins (51-70), are occupying the basement of the National League East. Miami is a miserable 21-40 outside of South Beach while posting a 12-20 since the All-Star break.

This will be the first meeting between the two clubs since the 2019 campaign. However, they will make up for the lost time by facing each other seven times over the next 10 days.

In the last decade, Cincinnati holds a 16-10 advantage over the Marlins at Great American Ball Park, including a three-game sweep of the Fish in their last visit in April of 2019. However, Miami has captured two of the last three series when visiting the Queen City.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Marlins

Luis Castillo (6-12 4.51 ERA) takes the mound in tonight’s opener. Miami manager Don Mattingly has yet to announce his starter. It was a decent outing the last time our for La Piedra as he tossed 6.2 innings of five-hit three-run baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies. Unfortunately, the Reds didn’t collect their first hit until the eighth inning, so despite whiffing eight Phillies, Castillo took the loss in a Reds 6-1 defeat.

Over his career, Castillo has dominated the Marlins. The former Miami farmhand is 3-0 in four career starts against the Fish with a sparkling 1.84 ERA in 29.1 frames. However, one area of concern for La Piedra lately has been the long ball. The right-hander has been taken deep six times in his last four outings.

Friday night finds Sonny Gray (4-6 4.47 ERA) on the bump as he squares off against Elieser Hernandez (0-0 2.84 ERA) of the Marlins. The 2021 season has been frustrating for the Cincinnati right-hander, and his last start was a microcosm of his season.

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Handed a 4-1 lead entering the bottom of the fifth versus the Phillies on Sunday, Gray could not escape the frame after allowing two runs to cross and handing the ball to Lucas Sims to help preserve an eventual Cincinnati victory. The two-time All-Star has failed to complete five innings an astonishing eight times in 18 starts.

Miami’s Elieser Hernandez has been impressive in a trio of 2021 starts. Even though he’s only compiled 12.2 innings, he’s issued just one free pass against 13 strikeouts while posting an excellent 0.79 WHIP. This will be the 26-year-old Venezuelan’s first career start versus the Redlegs.

David Bell hands the ball to his most dependable starter Saturday night as Wade Miley (10-4 2.84 ERA) gets the call. Miami has not yet announced a starter for the third of the four-game set. The last time out was another typical Wade Miley performance.

For the third time in his last seven starts, the left-hander tossed a minimum of seven shutout frames. You don’t have to remind the Marlins of Miley’s excellence. In his last five starts versus the Fish, the Louisiana native hasn’t surrendered a homer and has allowed just 21 hits in 34 innings while compiling a microscopic 1.59 ERA.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Vladimir Gutierrez (8-4 3.87 ERA) battling Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (7-11 3.39 ERA). What more can you about Gutierrez? Over his last seven starts, he’s allowed two runs or less an incredible six times.

If there’s been one area of concern for the Cuban right-hander, it’s been his less than stellar performances at GABP. Making six starts in front of the Reds faithful, Gutierrez has allowed 42 hits, including nine round-trippers, in only 33.2 frames resulting in a 5.35 ERA.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara is coming off a pair of excellent outings. Hurling 15 innings, the 25-year-old Dominican has yielded just nine hits and one earned run. This will be his second career start versus the Reds. Alcantara was on the losing end of a 5-0 Redleg victory in August of 2019, in which The Punisher, Aristides Aquino, took him deep at Marlins Park.

Reds slugger, Tyler Naquin, has rediscovered his groove.

After getting off to a blistering start and blasting 10 homers through the first two months of the season, Tyler Naquin hit a wall and it was the only thing he hit hard. The months of June and July saw the left-handed slugger go deep just three times, and he especially struggled last month, producing a horrific .218/.269/.299 slash line.

However, in his last 15 games, Naquin has reminded us why he seized the opportunity of being Cincinnati’s primary centerfielder. Slashing .340/.426/.553 with two homers and eight RBIs, the Texas native also established a career-high with his 15th round-tripper of the season yesterday.

But wait, there’s more. Currently, Naquin is also riding an eight-game hitting streak in which he’s collected 13 hits in 31 at-bats. With All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker on the shelf for at least another week, the Reds need someone to help fill the void. To this point, Tyler Naquin has more than answered the call.

Prediction

Let’s forget about all the talk regarding a soft schedule. The Reds blew a golden opportunity by gaining only one game on the Padres. Give credit to the lowly Cubs as they humbled a Cincinnati club they had absolutely no business taking a series from.

For the Reds to salvage this homestand, they will need to sweep the Marlins this weekend. Will they do it? No. Look for the Redlegs to take three of four from the Fish this weekend, but concluding a 4-3 homestand versus two of the worst teams in the National League can only be considered a missed opportunity.