Reds vs. Pirates: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 01: Jonathan India #6 of the Cincinnati Reds in action. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

The Reds welcome a struggling Pirates club to town.

It’s been a while. How long has it been since the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates tangled on the diamond? Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel were in the Redlegs’ starting lineup for the May 12th affair. Don’t fret. The Reds and Bucs will make up for lost time over the final two months of the season.

Beginning today, Cincinnati (57-51) and Pittsburgh will play 13 times over the Reds’ final 54 games of the 2021 season. In other words, nearly a quarter of the Redlegs’ remaining contests will be against arguably the worst team in the National League.

Speaking of Moustakas and Senzel, there’s an excellent chance each of them will be in the starting lineup at some point this weekend. Both are currently on rehab assignments at Triple-A Louisville.

Moustakas recovering from a heel injury, hasn’t started a game since May 14th in Colorado against the Rockies. Appearing in just 28 games this season, Moose is slashing .241/.337/.437 with four homers and 13 RBIs in only 87 at-bats.

As for Senzel, he’s not been in the lineup since May 17th versus the San Francisco Giants. Unfortunately, the former first-round pick has struggled in limited playing time year. The University of Tennessee alum has just one homer and 8 RBIs in 111 at-bats while compiling a -0.1 fWAR.

The more things change, the more they stay the same for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Barring a miracle, the Pirates (41-67) will finish in the basement of the National League Central for a third consecutive season.

To add to the misery, the Bucs could drop 100 games this season for the first time since the 2010 campaign in which they completed a stretch of four seasons in a row in the division basement. So let’s be honest, Reds Country, it could be much, much worse.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 02: Ke’Bryan Hayes #13 of the Pittsburgh Pirates up to bat. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

Rookie third baseman, Ke’Bryan Hayes, has a bright future.

If there’s one thing for Pirates fans to be excited about, it has to be rookie Ke’Bryan Hayes. The son of longtime former major leaguer Charlie Hayes, he could become the best homegrown Pittsburgh player since a young Andrew McCutchen was terrorizing NL Central pitching staffs.

Just 24-years-old, Hayes has been limited to 54 games in his first full season as he missed nearly two months with a left wrist injury. However, he has shown glimpses of what is likely to come when he’s in the Pittsburgh lineup.

A one-time favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors, Hayes has struggled over his past 30 games producing a .209/.267/.309 slash line. Overall he’s slashing .242/314/.374 with four homers and 21 RBIs. He may not be Jonathan India, but there’s still plenty to like about this rookie’s game despite the recent slump.

Let’s not forget about the Pirates’ other young stud. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds is having a sensational 2021 campaign. The switch-hitting All-Star is slashing an impressive .308/.391/.523 with a team-leading 18 bombs and 61 ribbies.

Reynolds is a perfect example of when the Pittsburgh front office got it right. Acquired from the San Francisco Giants in a January 2018 trade that sent the aforementioned McCutchen to the Bay Area is surely a deal the Giants would love to take back.

While the present may be bleak, there’s reason for hope with Hayes and Reynolds as the club’s cornerstones to build upon. For a franchise mired in the basement of the NL Central, hope is all Bucs fans have.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JULY 10: Vladimir Gutierrez #53 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Pirates

Sonny Gray (3-6 4.26 ERA) kicks things off for the Redlegs tonight as he opposes Wil Crowe (3-5 5.40 ERA) of the Pirates. Let’s hope Gray’s last start is a harbinger for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.

Tossing six innings of one-run ball against the New York Mets, the Cincinnati right-hander dominated the Metropolitans by striking out seven in earning the victory. April of 2019 was the last time the Pirates defeated Gray, and the Vanderbilt alum has allowed more than one earned run only once in his last five starts against Pittsburgh.

Rookie Wil Crow will be making his first start against the Reds. The right-hander has struggled to keep opponents off the base paths. In 71.2 innings of work this season, 108 batters have reached safely via a hit or base on balls. So don’t expect Crow’s debut at Great American Ball Park to be an enjoyable one.

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Friday night finds Wade Miley (8-4 2.92 ERA) taking the mound as he squares off against JT Brubaker (4-10 4.49 ERA). The Reds left-hander was his typical bulldog self holding the Mets to three runs on four hits over seven solid frames in his last start.

The Cincinnati southpaw dominated the Bucs earlier this season, allowing just two hits in six shutout innings. Look for Miley to keep the ball in the park Friday night. Pittsburgh has failed to take Miley deep the last five times they’ve faced each other.

JT Brubaker has proven to be a tough customer for the Redlegs. The 27-year-old right-hander has allowed just three runs in 15.1 innings in his three career starts versus Cincinnati. Joey Votto is hitless in five at-bats with two punch outs against Brubaker. It’s time for that to change.

Saturday night’s all right for Vladimir Gutierrez (6-3 4.39 ERA) as he toes the rubber facing Mitch Keller (3-8 7.05 ERA) of the Bucs. So, which rookie pitcher who made their debut in 2021 leads MLB in victories? That’s right. It’s Vladimir Gutierrez. Not bad for a guy who made his MLB debut on May 28th.

The Cuban right-hander was sensational his last time on the bump. Gutierrez seeks to have similar success back home in the Queen City after bewildering the Mets in the Big Apple with seven innings of three-hit one-run baseball. This will be his first time facing Pittsburgh.

How does Mitch Keller fair against Cincinnati? In a word, awful. Making four career starts versus the Redlegs, the right-hander has surrendered 22 hits, 17 runs, and five gopher balls in 16.1 frames. In addition, Tucker Barnhart and Nick Castellanos have each taken the former second-round draft pick deep twice.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Tyler Mahle (8-3 3.86 ERA) battling Pittsburgh’s Bryce Wilson (2-4 4.42 ERA). Following an outstanding performance versus the Chicago Cubs, Mahle could not duplicate that success in his last start facing the Minnesota Twins.

Working five innings, the Reds’ right-hander allowed four runs on six hits, including a back-breaking two-out three-run blast to Twins catcher Mitch Garvey in Mahle’s final frame. However, the sight of the Pirates should give the California native confidence. Mahle has yielded just a single run over his last 10.1 innings against the Bucs with a dozen punchouts.

Newly acquired right-hander Bryse Wilson will be making his first start against the Redlegs. This will be Wilson’s second start as a Pirate after being obtained from Atlanta in the deal that sent reliever Richard Rodriguez to the Braves on July 30th.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 04: Michael Lorenzen #21 celebrates with Tyler Stephenson #37 of the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

Michael Lorenzen’s return is a much-needed jolt.

If there’s anything Reds Country learned throughout the brief two-game set with Minnesota Twins this week, it’s that the bullpen woes which have plagued Cincinnati all season long aren’t going away anytime soon. However, at least Micheal Lorenzen provides hope for more positive outcomes.

For far too long this season, manager David Bell has turned to Brad Brach and Heath Hembree to get important outs in pressure situations. Considering both of these guys were out of work earlier this season, it should come as no surprise they are revealing who they truly are. Both had disastrous turns facing the Twins, which is why Lorenzen has to be Bell’s top option out of the bullpen.

Since returning to the active roster following multiple trips to the injured list, Michael Lorenzen has tossed 5.2 innings of shutout baseball, allowing three hits and fanning six. Granted, it’s an extremely small sample size.

Still, given Mikey Biceps’ track record, there is little doubt he deserves the ball to get big outs late in the game rather than the mediocre mercenaries general manager Nick Krall has supplied David Bell with this season.

Prediction

The last time the Pirates visited Great American Ball Park, they were outscored 30-8 and swept in a three-game set that wasn’t as close as the run differential might indicate. So yes, it was that lopsided.

Reds dodged a huge bullet not trading for Story. Next

Should we expect things to be any different this time around? No. In every game this series, Cincinnati has a decided pitching advantage, and the Pirates are simply a terrible club. Look for the Reds to sweep the four-game series and finish off a successful homestand.

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