Reds vs. Twins: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

Pitching woes have crippled the Twins 2021 season.

For a team that has won consecutive division titles and made three playoff appearances in four seasons, the 2021 campaign has been a disappointment for the Minnesota Twins. Unfortunately, for Minnesota fans, the reasons are clearly visible.

Entering play today, the Twins’ 4.99 ERA is the second-worst mark in the American League. Right-hander Michael Pineda is the only member of the rotation with an ERA of less than 4.00. Matt Shoemaker posted a 7.28 ERA in 11 starts before mercifully being deployed to the bullpen. In addition, veteran southpaw J.A. Happ has compiled an unsightly 6.77 ERA in 19 starts. Ouch!

It could be a long couple of days at Great American Ballpark for Minnesota hurlers. The 154 round-trippers allowed by the Twins pitching staff are the most in the junior circuit. Cincinnati hit four bombs in two games at Target Field in June versus Minnesota pitching.

Even though the Twins give up a ton of home runs, they also hit them by the bunches. Their 153 long balls trail only the Toronto Blue Jays for American League supremacy in the home run category.

Minnesota currently has six players who have reached double digits in round-trippers, led by the 17 from first baseman Miguel Sano and 16 each from second baseman Jorge Polanco and third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Another Twin who poses a threat at the plate is catcher Mitch Garver. The 30-year-old backstop has gone deep 11 times in just 138 at-bats. Additionally, he’s compiled excellent .346 OBP and .543 slugging marks to compliment an impressive 145 OPS+ figure.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Twins.

Tyler Mahle (8-3 3.71 ERA) takes the mound in tonight’s opener opposing Kenta Maeda (4-4 4.40 ERA) of the Twins. Following a rough month of starts, Mahle appears to have regained his footing over his last two outings.

Tossing 11 innings, the Reds right-hander has allowed just two runs, but inefficiency continues to plague Mahle. The California native threw 103 pitches over six innings last week against the Cubs after a 95 pitch five-inning performance versus the Cardinals.

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This will be Mahle’s second start against the Twins this year. On June 21st, he completed just four innings as he surrendered three runs on five hits while also issuing three free passes. Despite the high pitch counts, the 26-year-old has already established a career-high with 133 strikeouts on the season.

Kenta Maeda is coming off a fantastic July. Making five starts, he compiled a 2.15 ERA over 29.1 innings while allowing just 18 hits. However, the Japanese import has struggled away from Target Field this season.

In 11 road starts, the 33-year-old right-hander has a 5.50 ERA allowing 56 hits, including 11 gopher balls, in 54 frames. Maeda has made one career start at GABP, hurling five innings of one-run ball as he picked up the victory in June of 2018 as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

David Bell will hand the ball to Luis Castillo for tomorrow’s matinee series finale. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has yet to name a starter for Wednesday’s contest. It’s difficult to be much better than La Piedra’s been the past two months.

Since June 1st Castillo has a 1.95 ERA in 11 starts while holding the opposition to a ridiculously paltry .193/.286/.266 slash line in 69.1 innings. The 28-year-old right-hander is also averaging 9.5 K’s per nine frames with a 1.11 WHIP.  That will do, Luis. That will do.

The Reds’ All-Star outfielder has regained his stroke at the plate.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the terrible slump Jesse Winker was in and how he hardly resembled the player he was the first three months of the season. Fast-forward two weeks, and it seems the old Wink has reemerged.

Over his last 15 games, Winker is slashing .323/.389/.569 with two homers, nine RBIs, and 10 runs scored. I’m not saying a little constructive criticism from Blog Red Machine is the reason the left-handed hitting slugger has rebounded, but the timing makes you wonder.

If the Reds are going to make a serious run at the postseason, they’ll need Winker to be nearly as good as he was in the first half of the 2021 campaign. While Joey Votto has done most of the heavy lifting since Nick Castellanos went on the IL with a wrist injury, another threat the likes of Winker can do wonders for an already dangerous lineup.

Through his first four years in the majors, Da Wink has been at his best in August. Posting a lifetime 1.077 OPS in August, a similar performance coupled with the returns of Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Nick Senzel, the Redlegs have an offense with the potential of playing deep into October.

Prediction

There’s no need to be subtle about it; these are the type of games the Cincinnati Reds must win to remain in playoff contention. Minnesota is only playing for individual goals at this point of the season, as the dog days of August have arrived.

Look for the Reds to sweep the two-game set from the Twins before turning their focus towards the terrible Pittsburgh Pirates, who visit the Queen City on Thursday to begin a four-game series over the weekend at GABP.