Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 04: Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after a double play. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

The Reds’ first road trip of the second-half opens in Wrigley Field.

It was not the homestand the Cincinnati Reds (51-48) had hoped for to open the second half of the 2021 campaign, but at least they were able to capture the final series of the nine-game homestand by taking two of three from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Nevertheless, a 3-6 start to the post-All-Star break is less than optimal. As play begins today, the Redlegs find themselves second in the National League Central division trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by 6.5 games. However, plenty of opportunities await Cincinnati this week as they visit Chicago to battle the Cubs before heading to the Big Apple to clash with the Mets.

One area of concern during their just-completed run at Great American Ball Park has been the starting rotation’s inability to pitch deep into ball games. Only Wade Miley and Luis Castillo reached the seventh inning, exposing a bullpen that sports an NL worst 5.37 ERA to try and pick up pivotal outs.

You have to give manager David Bell credit. He’s been reluctant to the call on the bullpen for good reason. For instance, Cincinnati starters entered play yesterday, tossing 516 innings, ranking them fifth in the senior circuit for most frames worked by NL rotations.

The Chicago Cubs (49-51) enter the series in fourth place in the NL Central trailing the Brewers by nine games. After dropping 3-fo-4 to start last week against the Cardinals, the Cubbies rebounded, taking 2-of-3 from the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field.

Cincinnati holds a 6-3 advantage over the North Siders this season and swept their most recent three-game set over the Fourth of July weekend at GABP. With a sweep this week at the Friendly Confines, the Reds would ensure their second season series victory over Chicago in the last three years.

CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 3: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after scoring a run against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

The 2021 edition of the Cubs could look very different by the week’s end.

It has to be a bitter pill for the Cubs’ faithful to swallow, but with the club in fourth place, the front office is clearly in seller-mode as the Friday trade deadline approaches. As a result, it’s anyone’s guess about who will be wearing a Cubs uniform when their weekend series versus the Washington Nationals opens in DC.

Chicago kicked off their dismantling project earlier this month, dealing outfielder Joc Pederson to the Atlanta Braves. He may be the first Cubbie to leave, but he certainly won’t be the last as President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer faces some difficult decisions this week.

Obviously, all eyes will be on Kris Bryant this week. However, it’s hard to imagine Bryant still in a Cubs uniform by the end of the week. Considering the tumultuous relationship between Bryant and Cubs front office and his impending free agency following the season, it seems next to impossible to believe the Cubs will let the former MVP leave the Windy City with only a draft pick as compensation.

While not an impossibility, it seems less likely that shortstop Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo will be traded, but it’s not a scenario that can be dismissed entirely. While Baez continues to produce impressive power numbers, as evidenced by his 22 homers and 64 RBIs, his overall offensive game leaves much to be desired.

Compiling a slash line of .245/.291/.488, the Cubbies shortstop is the very definition of a feast or famine hitter. Baez leads the NL with 128 strikeouts and has finished in the top five in punch outs two of the last three seasons. Needless to say, the free agent to be is not the same player who finished the 2018 season second in the MVP voting.

Even though 31-year-old first baseman Anthony Rizzo has failed to display the power he has in the past, he’s still reaching base at an impressive .341 clip. The three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner will also be hitting the open market following the season.

Other Chicago names to keep an eye on this week include starter Kyle Hendricks and relievers Andrew Chafin and Craig Kimbrel. By the end of this week, many of the heroes from the club’s 2016 World Series title team could find themselves in different uniforms.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 17: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Tonight’s opener includes an excellent matchup as Wade Miley of the Reds (8-4 2.72 ERA) battles Kyle Hendricks (12-4 3.61 ERA) of the Cubs. Miley, who has been far and away Cincinnati’s most consistent starter this season, is on quite a roll.

Over his past seven starts, Miley has allowed more than two earned runs just once while compiling a fantastic 2.44 ERA. So if Chicago manager David Ross is considering giving Anthony Rizzo a day off, tonight may be the perfect opportunity. The Cubs’ first baseman is 5-for-28 lifetime against the Reds’ southpaw.

Will this be Kyle Hendricks last start as a Cub in the Windy City? Who knows, but if so, Hendricks is leaving on a high note. The right-hander has won 10 consecutive decisions and leads the NL with 12 victories.

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Vladimir Gutierrez (4-3 4.97 ERA) gets the call Tuesday night as the Cubs counter with Adbert Alzolay (4-10 4.58 ERA). The Cincinnati rookie is looking to rebound from an awful start versus the New York Mets.

The right-hander was torched for nine hits and three long balls in just four innings of work. It’s been a tough stretch for the 25-year-old Cuban. In two of his last four starts, he’s allowed at least six runs while surrendering three round-trippers.

Adbert Alzolay will be making his third start against the Redlegs this season. If his first two starts are any indication, it could be a long night for the Redlegs. The 26-year-old right-hander has yielded just three runs in 12.2 frames versus Cincinnati while splitting his two decisions.

Wednesday night finds Tyler Mahle (7-3 3.92 ERA) squaring off against Zach Davies (6-6 4.30 ERA) of the North Siders. Unfortunately, inefficiency continues to plague the Reds’ right-hander. Despite an impressive record, Mahle has just five quality starts due largely to his inability to last six innings.

The 26-year-old California native has completed six frames in just seven of his 20 starts this season. In addition, his 4.22 pitches per plate appearance are the most in the NL, forcing manager David Bell to go to his volatile bullpen early and often when Mahle toes the rubber.

Speaking of pitchers not working deep into ball games, the Cubs Zach Davies certainly qualifies to be a member of that group. The Chicago right-hander has completed six frames in just six of 21 starts this year. You may want to go into work a little late Thursday morning because Wednesday night could turn into a parade of relievers to the pitching mound.

Thursday’s matinee series finale features Luis Castillo (4-10 4.20 ERA) facing Alec Mils (4-3 4.55 ERA) of the Cubbies. It’s almost impossible to believe that on May 23rd La Piedra was sporting an ERA of 7.61 following a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, but Castillo’s turnaround the past two months is simply incredible.

Since June 1st, Castillo’s ERA of 1.71 is the second-best mark in the game. Additionally, his 65 strikeouts rank 7th, and the two homers he surrendered places third among all hurlers. Simply put, Luis Castillo is on a magical ride this summer.

For whatever reason, Alec Mills seems to baffle the Reds. In his last two starts against the Redlegs, he’s allowed just two runs on six hits while fanning 15 Reds in only 11.2 innings. So Thursday is the perfect day to give Jesse Winker some rest. Da Wink is 1-for-13 lifetime versus the Cubs’ right-hander.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 24: Joey Votto #19 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a home run. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The Reds’ first baseman has found his power stroke.

If there’s one thing Reds Country should know by now, it’s to never doubt Joey Votto. Before the 2021 campaign began, Votto told anyone who would listen his goal this season was to display more power even though it may negatively impact his overall batting average and on-base percentage.

It would have been easy to dismiss the comments as those of an aging player making empty promises in hopes of being a valuable contributor to the team, but Joey Votto has proved his naysayers wrong once again.

Entering play today, Votto has six homers and 19 RBIs in his last 30 games while producing a .308/.408/.551 slash line. Additionally, his current 114 OPS+ and .839 slugging marks are his highest since his last All-Star appearance in 2018. In other words, Votto still bangs.

Prediction

As the Reds playoff hopes hang in the balance, Chicago has clearly turned their attention to 2022 and beyond. It could be an emotional week for several Cubbies as it could be their final appearances as North Siders at Wrigley Field.

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Chicago is an excellent 30-18 at home, while the Reds are a stellar 25-22 away from the Queen City. Unfortunately, look for the Redlegs to tread water as they open the week with a split with the Cubs before moving on to New York City and a weekend date with the Mets.

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