Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds have been Josh Hader’s kryptonite.

The numbers don’t lie; 63 strikeouts in 36.1 innings, a 0.79 WHIP with a 1.49 ERA and 21 saves. Josh Hader has been the dominant closer in the National League Central not only this season but for several seasons, and it hasn’t been close.

As a matter of fact, Hader entered last weekend without a defeat in three decisions this year. But, as the second half begins, the left-handed closer now has a pair of losses on his resume, and he can place the blame on Eugenio Suarez’s bat, or elbow, in each instance.

Suarez broke a 3-3 tie against the Brewers last Saturday night in the ninth inning with a towering opposite-field round-tripper off Hader which proved to be the difference in a Redlegs victory. But wait, Hader and Suarez were not quite finished with one another.

Entering last Sunday’s series finale, the 27-year-old Hader had failed to hit a single batter in his previous 36 appearances during the 2021 campaign. Once again, with the score tied, Geno stepped to the plate the leading off the top of the ninth for Cincinnati.

How cocky is Josh Hader? He was confident enough to pluck Suarez with the inning’s first pitch, putting the potential winning run on base with nobody out. But, as fate would have it, Hader’s hubris proved to be ill-served.

Once All-Star Nick Castellanos plated two runs with a bases-loaded single, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell was forced to remove his closer as the Reds closed out a 3-1 victory while saddling Hader with his second loss in as many days. However, the atmosphere should be electric at GABP this weekend if Hader is called upon again.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers.

One would figure with nearly a week between games, manager Craig Counsell could set his rotation coming out of the All-Star break, but the Brewers skipper has yet to announce his starters for this weekend’s three-game set.

Luckily for yours truly, Cincinnati manager David Bell isn’t engaging in such shenanigans and is providing me with writing material. Bell will call upon Tyler Mahle (7-3 3.68 ERA) in tonight’s opener.

Mahle has been excellent in two starts against the Brewers this season. Tossing a dozen innings, the right-hander has fanned 18 Beer Makers without surrendering a long ball. However, the second half of the season has not been kind to Mahle over his career.

Making 32 appearances in July through October, the California native is just 5-11 with an unsightly 5.30 ERA. Hopefully, a more experienced Tyler Mahle can avoid the post-All-Star break struggles.

I’m still not quite sure what adjustments Luis Castillo (3-10 4.65 ERA) has made the past two months, but whatever it is, please don’t change a thing. Over his last seven starts, La Piedra has allowed only 27 hits and just one homer in 44.1 innings of work. Toss in a 2.03 ERA, and this is the Castillo Reds Country loves to see.

La Piedra has dominated the Brew Crew in two matchups this season. Tossing 12.1 frames, he’s yielded just six hits and one run. Milwaukee middle infielders Willy Adames and Jace Peterson have a combined two hits in 18 at-bats versus Castillo throughout their careers.

Sunday afternoon’s series finale will feature Sonny Gray (2-4 3.19 ERA) returning to the active roster following a third trip to the IL this year. If there’s one thing that makes Gray happy, it’s seeing the Milwaukee Brewers in the batter’s box.

Over his last five starts against the Brew Crew, Gray has compiled a fantastic 2.96 ERA while punching out 32 Brewers in only 24.1 innings of work. The two-time All-Star is also at his best during July and August.

Lifetime Gray is a remarkable 35-22 during the final two months of summer. Additionally, he’s 12-7 with a sparkling 2.99 ERA in 30 career starts at GABP.  The stars are aligning for the Vanderbilt alum and the Redlegs.

A healthier Reds squad looks to make a second-half charge.

It just wouldn’t be the 2021 season without someone landing on the IL. Unfortunately, even during the All-Star break, the Reds couldn’t avoid placing another player on the shelf as reliever Art Warren will be sidelined for a minimum of 10 days with a left oblique strain.

However, reinforcements are standing by. All signs point to right-hander Michael Lorenzen making his 2021 season debut this weekend. The return of Mikey Bicepts cannot come soon enough.

Due to injuries besetting relievers Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, manager David Bell has been a magician over the past several weeks mixing and matching Brad Brach, Amir Garrett, Heath Hembree, and Josh Osich to keep the Reds within striking distance of the division lead.

With Lorenzen set to return and as well as Jeff Hoffman, Bell will have two fresh arms at his disposal. Even though the Reds bullpen may not strike fear in opponents, it will be better in the second half as a return to health helps address one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.

Prediction

It’s been several years since the Cincinnati Reds played such an important series following the All-Star break. This is an opportunity for them to make a statement and send a clear signal to the Brewers and the entire National League they cannot be dismissed.

Look for the Reds to take two of three from Milwaukee this weekend as they inch closer to taking over the top spot in the Central division with the NL East division leader New York Mets coming to town Monday for another July showdown at GABP.