Reds vs. Brewers: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds and Brewers square off to close out the first half.

Oh, what could have been. Although it’s tough to be disappointed winning any series on the road, the Cincinnati Reds (45-41) were four outs away, with a five-run advantage, from sweeping their second consecutive series. Instead, the Redlegs had to settle for two of three from the Kansas City Royals following Tuesday night’s meltdown.

However, an opportunity to make the National Central Division race especially exciting awaits the Redlegs. Entering play tonight, Cincinnati trails the first-place Milwaukee Brewers by six games with their next seven games against the Beer Makers.

As the trade deadline approaches, the inevitable question around Reds Country is will the Reds be buyers or sellers? The next 10 days will go a long way toward answering that question. However, if the Reds can win four or five of the next seven versus Milwaukee, Bob Castellini and GM Nick Krall may be forced into a situation where they have to, gulp, spend money to strengthen the club for the home stretch.

I’m sure every Reds fan recalls the club’s last trip to Milwaukee. Less than a month ago, the Redlegs swept a three-game set at American Family Field. As a result, there should be no lack of confidence on the Reds’ part.

However, the Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) aren’t in first place by mistake. Even though Cincinnati is an impressive 18-12 over their past 30 games entering yesterday, the Brewers have been even better, sporting a sparkling 21-9 mark.

Despite the Reds’ success in Milwaukee, the Beer Makers are a sterling 26-18 at home this season. Cincinnati is the only team to sweep a series in Milwaukee this season. The Brewers have won six consecutive games at American Family Field following the Redlegs’ pummeling of the Beer Makers on their home turf.

Milwaukee has ridden strong starting pitching to the top.

It’s no coincidence Milwaukee has two members of their starting rotation, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, in the All-Star Game next week. The Brewers rotation ranks second in the National League with 41 quality starts as play began yesterday.

Right-handers Woodruff and Freddy Peralta rank fourth and seventh respectively in the senior circuit in ERA. In addition, if he tossed a handful of more innings, Burnes would place directly behind Peralta in the ERA race.

One area that has not been as air-tight is the Brewers bullpen. Milwaukee ranks ninth in the NL with a 63% save rate. In addition, the 42 holds compiled by the relief corps places them ninth as well among the league’s bullpens. It may sound strange, but perhaps getting to the Brewers bullpen isn’t such a bad thing.

Milwaukee has needed every bit of their strong rotation because the bats have produced feeble results at best. The Beer Makers entered play yesterday with an National League worst .220 team batting average.

To be fair, this is a banged-up Brewers’ lineup. Four regulars, Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw, Daniel Vogelbach, and Kolten Wong, are on the IL with various ailments. Cain, a two-time All-Star and former Gold Glove winner, has appeared in only 31 games this season due to a strained right hamstring.

However, general manager Matt Arnold is never one to miss an opportunity to upgrade the roster.  Earlier this week, the club acquired a left-handed bat in Rowdy Tellez from the Toronto Blue Jays to replace Vogelbach. Don’t get too worried Reds Country. Tellez compiled a weak .209/.272/.338 slash line in 139 at-bats with the Jays.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Brewers.

Tyler Mahle (7-3 3.63 ERA) gets the call tonight, opposing Adrian Houser (5-5 3.94 ERA) of the Brew Crew. The Cincinnati right-hander was sensational in his last outing against the Brewers.

Tossing six innings of three-hit, one-run baseball, Mahle equaled his career-high of 12 strikeouts during a June 16th start at American Family Field. Those dozen K’s match his previous high he established in a June 2018 contest versus these very same Brewers.

Even though he’s just 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in his last five starts against the Redlegs, Adrian Houser worked a gem his last time against Cincinnati. Pitching 5.1 frames, the right-hander allowed only one run. After that, however, danger awaits Houser.

Cincinnati’s All-Star left fielder Jesse Winker is 9-for-16 lifetime versus Houser with a whopping five round-trippers. Not to be outdone, the Reds other All-Star outfielder, Nick Castellanos, is hitting .353 versus the Milwaukee starter.

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Left-hander Wade Miley (6-4 3.06 ERA) makes his first start against the Brewers this season Friday night. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell will counter with fellow lefty Eric Lauer (3-3 4.11 ERA). So how good has Miley been on the road this season? In a word, fantastic.

Making seven starts on enemy soil this year, Miley has compiled an excellent 3.00 ERA by allowing 14 runs in 42 innings. Even more impressive is the fact that eight of those 14 runs came in one start against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. I’m no math expert, but outside of the one start in Colorado, that’s six runs surrendered in as many starts.

Southpaw Eric Lauer will most likely have a restless night of sleep Thursday evening. The 26-year-old left-hander is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds. Although, one Redleg not looking forward to seeing Lauer is Eugenio Suarez. Geno has two hits in 11 at-bats with six punchouts in his career versus the Brewer starter.

Rookie Vladimir Gutierrez (4-3 4.67 ERA) battles Freddy Peralta (7-3 2.23 ERA) of the Brewers Saturday night. Looking for a good omen Reds Country? Half of Gutierrez’s four career wins are against Milwaukee.

The right-handed Cuban is 2-0 versus the Beer Makers with 13 punchouts in as many innings this year. Brewers Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez are a combined 1-for-11 against Gutierrez in his brief career.

As good as Peralta has been this year, the Redlegs have made him work. In three starts versus the Reds this year, the right-hander has escaped the fifth inning just once. Patience has been a key for Cincinnati. Peralta has issued six free passes in 15.2 frames against the Reds in the 2021 campaign.

Sunday’s matinee series finale will feature Luis Castillo (3-10 4.81 ERA) squaring off against All-Star Brandon Woodruff (7-4 2.10 ERA) of Milwaukee. So, Reds Country, it’s finally safe to say La Piedra is back.

Over his last six starts, covering 39 innings, Castillo has allowed just 24 hits and one home run. However, La Piedra finding his groove is not news to the Brewers. During a June 15th start in Milwaukee, the Brew Crew failed to plate a run versus the Reds’ right-hander in seven innings.

Right-hander Brandon Woodruff is making his 2021 debut versus the Redlegs. If history is any indication, look for the Milwaukee starter to pile up strikeouts. Over his last 28.2 frames against the Redlegs, Woodruff has fanned 40.

Don’t expect to see Shogo Akiyama in manager David Bell’s starting lineup Sunday. The Cincinnati outfielder is hitless in eight at-bats versus Woodruff with five strikeouts. The All-Star break should come a day early for Shogo.