Reds vs. Royals: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

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CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 26: Amir Garrett #50 and Tucker Barnhart #16 of the Cincinnati Reds react to their 4-1 win. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

The second-place Cincinnati Reds look to close out the first half strong.

A lot can change over the course of three days. Friday morning, it appeared the Cincinnati Reds (43-40) were on the brink of squandering a golden opportunity as they prepared to close out an 11-game homestand. Fast forward to today, and the Redlegs hit the road after wrapping up a successful 7-4 record in front of the home crowd at Great American Ball Park.

Following this past weekend’s sweep of the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati has swept a series from every National League Central team this season. Additionally, the dismantling of the Cubbies pushed the Redlegs ahead of the North Siders and into second place in the division, entering the final week of the first half of the 2021 campaign.

If the Reds can maintain their grip on second-place heading into the All-Star break, it will be the first time since the 2012 season that they’re only staring up at one team in front of them in the division race. But, of course, much of that good fortune can be attributed to an exceptional 22-12 mark versus their division rivals and an excellent 19-11 record over their past 30 games.

As far as the Kansas City Royals (35-48) are concerned, they are heading in the opposite direction. The Royals have dropped eight of their last 10, 15 of the last 20, and 22 of their last 30 contests. Entering play today, KC finds themselves 14 games behind the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central.

Since making consecutive World Series appearances, and winning the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2015 over the New York Mets, the Royals have not finished above .500 and have suffered over 100 losses in two of those campaigns.

Cincinnati is 6-6 all-time at Kauffman Stadium. The Reds have not captured a season series from the Royals since 2006 in five attempts. This three-game set will be the only matchup between the two clubs this year.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 25: Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals slides into third base against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Battered pitching staff and lack of power top Kansas City’s woes.

Having a team ERA of 5.02 is bad enough, but when you issue the second most free passes in the American League, you’re placing an almost unbearable burden on the offense. Much of the Royals’ demise during the 2021 campaign can be directly linked to their inability to throw strikes.

The KC pitching staff has walked 330 opposing hitters, and their 4.2 BB/9 rate is the worst in the junior circuit. Additionally, their 2.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio occupies the basement of the American League rankings.

Needless to say, there’s a lot of traffic on the base paths when the Royals are on the mound, as evidenced by their league-worst 1.466 WHIP mark. However, I would caution against trying to run on Royals catcher Salvador Perez. The longtime KC backstop has nailed 39% of would-be base stealers. Well above the 32% AL average.

Entering play today, the Kansas City offense has launched a league-low 82 long balls. Additionally, their team slugging rate of .390 places them 12th among their AL rivals. However, Salvador Perez has done his best to carry the offensive load.

Not only is he playing his usually stellar defense, but the seven-time All-Star is hitting .280 with a team-high 20 homers and 50 RBIs. Making his sixth start in the Midsummer Classic, Perez, barring injury, should easily eclipse his career-high of 27 round-trippers.

Unfortunately, the rest of the KC lineup has not provided Perez with nearly enough help. Kansas City third basemen, right fielders, and designated hitters are dead last in bWAR in the AL. Much of that blame can be attributed to the awful season Hunter Dozier is having.

Appearing in 26 games in right field and 32 at third base, Dozier is slashing an anemic .172/.240/.341 with an embarrassing 56 OPS+ mark. Designated hitter Jorge Soler hasn’t been much better. After leading the AL with 48 homers in 2019, he’s now slashing .184/.280/.310 with only six round-trippers.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 01: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Royals

Rookie Vladimir Gutierrez (3-3 4.93 ERA) gets the call in the opening facing Mike Minor (6-6 5.33 ERA) of the Royals. It was a tough outing for Gutierrez during this last trip to the mound as an explosive San Diego Padres lineup pounded the right-hander for three home runs and six runs in just 4.1 innings of work.

Minus his two appearances against the Padres, Gutierrez has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his five other starts. However, consistently throwing strikes has been an issue for the Cuban. Gutierrez has issued at least two free passes in each of his seven starts and walked 19 in 38.1 frames on the season.

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It’s been a tough year for 33-year-old Mike Minor. The left-hander has struggled mightily when he falls behind in the count. Opposing hitters are hitting .533 with a 1.133 slugging rate when getting ahead 2-1 in the count versus the southpaw. So patience will be paramount for the Reds lineup tonight.

Luis Castillo (3-10 5.08 ERA) will take the mound Tuesday for the Redlegs. Kansas City Royals’ manager Mike Matheny has yet to announce his starter for the middle game of the three-game series.

After a disastrous first two months of the season, La Piedra is coming off an exceptional June. Making five starts, he compiled an impressive 1.71 ERA over 31.2 innings allowing just 19 hits and only one gopher ball.

Wednesday’s matinee series finale will feature Sonny Gray (1-4 3.27 ERA) battling the Royals’ Brady Singer (3-6 4.74 ERA). Gray was excellent in his first start since returning from the IL against the Chicago Cubs.

Tossing five innings, the Cincinnati right-hander yielded just one run while fanning eight North Siders. Over his career, Gray has dominated Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana. The two KC sluggers are a combined 6-for-37 versus the Vanderbilt alum.

It’s been a tough couple of weeks for 24-year-old Brady Singer. Over this last three starts, the right-hander has issued 10 walks in just 11.2 innings. The former first-round pick in the 2018 draft has worked 3.2 innings or less in three of his last four appearances.

CINCINNATI, OHIO – MAY 21: Nick Castellanos #2 and Jesse Winker #33 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrate after Winker hit a home run in the third inning. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Reds’ corner outfielders will make their All-Star debuts.

I’m not sure which one is Batman or Robin, but what I do know is both Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker are more than deserving in representing the National League in the starting lineup in next week’s All-Star Game at Coors Field in Denver. The numbers speak for themselves.

Castellanos leads the NL with a .339 average, 182 total bases, 105 hits, and 44 extra-base hits, including a league-best 27 doubles. Additionally, he ranks third in bWAR, OBP, slugging, OPS, and OPS+. Suffice to say, Nick Castellanos has been everything the Reds hoped he would be and more when they signed him as a free agent before the 2020 season.

Jesse Winker has been pretty, pretty, pretty good himself. The left-handed slugger is slashing .310/.389/.565 with a career-high 19 home runs and 49 RBIs. Winker currently resides within the top five in the senior circuit in batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS+, runs, hits, total bases, and homers. Now would be a perfect time for general manager Nick Krall to discuss signing Da Wink to a contract extension.

Castellanos and Winker are the first Reds players to start an All-Star Game since Zack Cozart in 2017 and are the first pair of Reds to be in the starting lineup since Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto anchored the right side of the infield for the 2013 game. Finally, Castellanos and Winker are the first pair of Reds to start in the same outfield since Gus Bell and Frank Robinson accomplished the feat in 1956.

Reds vs Royals: Prediction

Coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds can ill afford to let off the gas now. The Kansas City Royals are the perfect foil to help build additional momentum leading to a pivotal four-game series in Milwaukee this weekend.

5 draft prospects on the Reds shortlist. Next

Look for the Reds to take two of three from KC before heading north to battle the Beer Makers and putting a cap on the first half of the 2021 campaign. The All-Star break is a few short days away.

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