Reds vs. Cubs: Pitching preview, prediction, and more

The Reds host the Cubs for a pivotal series to close the homestand.

It was a tall order, throwing a pair of rookies during their first month in the big leagues at a powerful San Diego Padres lineup, and really, to no one’s surprise, both Cincinnati Reds‘ starters (Tony Santillan and Vladimir Gutierrez) were walloped by the Friars.

Thankfully, the Reds (40-40) will not have to face the Padres again this season. Mercifully, Cincinnati has only one remaining series, a September date at Great American Ball Park versus the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, against a National League West squad. Unfortunately, the Reds’ woeful 10-20 mark versus the NL West is a direct contributor to their mediocre standing.

However, all is not lost. Seven of the Redlegs’ 10 games to close out the first half of the 2021 season are against NL Central rivals, where the team has thrived. Cincinnati is a sparkling 19-12 in division play, and they will need every bit of that good mojo with the Cubbies arriving in the Queen City in a nasty mood.

Chicago (42-39) has dropped six in a row, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the first-place Brewers in Milwaukee. To add a little salt in the North Siders’ wounds, the Beer Makers outscored them 31-14 during the series.

Getting smacked around on the road is nothing new for Chicago. Once they leave the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field, the Cubs go into hibernation. Entering play this evening, the Cubbies are an abysmal 16-26 outside the Windy City.

This will be the second of three showdowns between the division rivals at GABP this season. Cincinnati took two of three in early May, and since 2018, the Reds hold a commanding 17-12 advantage in the Queen City over the Cubs.

Previewing the pitching matchups: Reds vs. Cubs

Sonny Gray (1-4 3.42 ERA) makes his return to the active roster taking the mound tonight facing Alec Mills (3-1 5.11 ERA) of the Cubs. The Cincinnati right-hander will be making his first start since leaving a June 8th contest against the Brewers after three innings with a groin injury.

It’s been a frustrating 2021 campaign to this point for Gray. He’s landed on the IL twice, and when he’s on the mound, he’s received less run support than any starting pitcher in the senior circuit. The 2.6 runs the Reds are scoring a game for Gray has left little margin for error on his part.

Let’s hope this start is similar to  Gray’s last appearance versus the Cubs at GABP. The Vanderbilt alum fanned 11 North Siders and allowed one hit in 6.2 innings of work, earning the victory in a July 29, 2020 start.

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Two Redlegs not looking forward to seeing Chicago’s Alec Mills on the bump are Joey Votto and Jesse Winker.  The Cincinnati left-handed sluggers are a combined 2-for-21 versus the right-hander. Lifetime Mills is unbeaten in three decisions against the Reds in eight appearances.

Saturday’s late afternoon start finds Tyler Mahle (7-3 3.74 ERA) opposing Chicago’s Adbert Alzolay (4-7 4.55 ERA). The Reds right-hander is looking to bounce back from a less than stellar performance against the Atlanta Braves in which he surrendered four runs, including two homers, in six innings in a 4-0 defeat.

Mahle was sensation his last time versus the Cubs. Tossing five shutout innings, he allowed just one hit while fanning eight North Siders in a Wrigley Field start. Don’t be surprised to see Chicago manager David Ross leave Ian Happ’s name off the lineup card Saturday. The former Cincinnati Bearcat is 1-fo- 16 in his career against Mahle with nine punch outs.

Like many Cubs, it was a tough June for Adbert Alozlay. Making four starts, he went 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA. The 26-year-old right-hander was clobbered for 16 hits in 15.2 frames, including five long balls. He’s still seeking his first victory since June 2nd.

Sunday, July 4th, will feature Wade Miley (6-4 3.09 ERA) battling Kyle Hendricks (10-4 3.98 ERA) of the Cubbies. It may not have been a vintage Miley performance his last time on the hill, but as is usually the case, he kept the game close, and his offense did the work in the late innings to down the Phillies Monday night.

Yielding four runs in six innings, it was the first time the Cincinnati southpaw had surrendered more than two earned runs in a start in over a month. Over his last seven starts, Miley has dropped just one decision and compiled an impressive 2.53 ERA.

One Cubs immune to the June blues was Kyle Hendricks. The right-hander was 5-0 with an excellent 2.97 ERA in six outings. Additionally, Hendricks has been the victor in his last eight decisions.

However, GABP has been a house of horrors for the longtime Cubbie. In his last three starts in the Queen City, Hendricks has allowed a whopping 29 hits and 18 runs in 14 innings of work. Let’s hope that trend continues.

The milestones keep coming for Reds first baseman Joey Votto.

The 2021 season is becoming quite the memorable one for the longtime Cincinnati Reds’ first baseman. Earlier this season, Joey Votto took the Cubs Jake Arrieta deep for home run number 300, and this week he launched another long ball to reach the 1,000 RBI plateau.

Votto currently ranks third in Reds history with 305 home runs and counting. Next on the list is the legendary Frank Robinson with 324 round-trippers which Votto will more than likely overtake early next season. All-time leader Johnny Bench who sits at 389 blasts, is probably out of Votto’s reach, but second place is not too shabby.

Now sitting sixth on the Reds’ all-time list with 1,000 RBIs, Votto, barring injury, will end the 2021 season alone in fourth place. Pete Rose and Robinson are fourth and fifth on the leaderboard with 1,009 and 1,036 ribbies, respectively. Next season, Votto will move into third place behind only Bench and Tony Perez when he surpasses the 1,072 mark of Bid McPhee.

However, it’s not all about career milestones for the 37-year-old Canadian.  Over his last 21 games entering yesterday, he’s slashing .293/.369/.520 with five homers and 17 RBIs. There’s no denying Joey Votto’s greatness. So let’s appreciate this once-in-a-generation talent while Reds Country has the opportunity.

Prediction

By the time this holiday weekend reaches its conclusion, the Cincinnati Reds will have met the halfway mark of the 2021 campaign. Even though they’re on the fringe of playoff contention, barring something unforeseen, the Reds should be healthier by the end of the month than at any point this season.

However, there’s no time like the present to start making some noise. Two things we know; 1) The Reds crush division rivals, and 2) The Cubs are terrible on the road. Both of those truths will ring true this weekend as the Reds take two of three to celebrate our nation’s birthday.